Commercial real estate rental cost statistics. Commercial real estate market analysis

Such an analysis is a study of a large-scale market that includes retail space, warehouses, hotels, and commercially used housing stock.

It can be general, covering the entire market, and private, specialized in a specific area of ​​real estate..

It is necessary for everyone who actively trades in the market.

The difference between analysis and evaluation is that the analysis gives a more complete picture of the market, allows, based on statistics and past experience, to determine price trends for several months and years.

A beginner investor must be interested in the theory and practice of market analysis so that you can invest your money with good returns without losing it during the next cyclical downturn. For those who want to get rid of real estate in their property, the analysis will tell you the best time to sell the property.

Commercial real estate market: analysis

To assess the situation and possible trends in the commercial real estate market, you need to refer to general macroeconomic indicators.

The analysis itself is divided into several important sectors.:

• analysis of the sale and purchase sector;
• analysis of the rental market;
• analysis of real estate investments;
• research of the state of affairs in different classes of commercial real estate.

The main indicator in the general analysis is investment activity in your region... Even in times of general economic instability or stagnation, there are safe zones for investors, where they can, if not increase, then at least save their money.

For example, the Moscow real estate market suffers less than others during crises.

The second is the general activity of the business and the purchasing power of the population.

This is especially evident when analyzing retail space.

A common picture during the crisis is half-empty halls in shopping centers with many rental announcements.

It testifies to the very poor state of affairs in the sector of this particular city.

ATTENTION. At the same time, the volume of construction of the same shopping centers cannot be interpreted as an unambiguous indicator of economic cycles.

It happens that the developer commissions the area in spite of the midst of the crisis, because the construction estimates simply do not take into account the economic situation.

The fact that the commercial real estate market is in decline is evidenced by the behavior of the owners of the premises. In a crisis, they are forced to fight for the tenant, inventing various indulgences for him in the form of discounts or repairs at their own expense.

At such moments, the business feels most mobile. But the owners suffer and are forced to get rid of the assets.

In such times, it is best to take ownership of the area for the future in 5-6 years, or for the development of your own business. The question of whether it is more profitable to rent commercial real estate, or to buy, must be decided according to the situation.

Renting always gives the company room to maneuver, allowing it to move to less expensive areas.

Property will tie the firm to one location, but can become a profitable asset in the future.

Not only large shopping centers own commercial properties.

Large firms and banks in years of economic growth buy them for their own needs, and get rid of them in times of crisis. Try to find such lots on the market, this is a great chance to get a premise in the best location for the usual price.

Office rooms

When analyzing office space, it is important to pay attention to the class of real estate... When “A” class offices are on the rise, it means that now is not the time for private investors with small capital. As the analysis of commercial real estate has shown, the market has exploded and is dominated by large players, including banks and investment funds.

For owners of large B and C class premises, this means that it is high time to enter into long-term lease contracts or sell premises to large corporations at a good price. These office classes have their advantages, despite the fact that they indicate poor quality finishes and inaccessibility to public transport.

Banks are especially interested if they have surplus funds in premises of this class... But for banks, office real estate of this class is just an asset that will be sold to the market in the first place in the event of a crisis.

The volume of premises is an important indicator in any real estate sector. The volume of premises in a particular class and the weighted average price in the market for this class should become the main tools for investing in office premises.

Commercial premises

The weighted average price in the retail space market may sink even from the construction of a large shopping center in this or a neighboring area.

Unlike office properties, trading is associated with a lot of risks..

Retail is an area of ​​business in which short-term contracts are most common. And during the crisis, small and medium-sized retail spaces are often empty.

Keep a close eye on which shopping malls and market squares are being built in the area of ​​your interest.

Such construction is guaranteed to shake prices. This is especially difficult when, during a collapse in the retail real estate market, developers lease new areas.

The situation is smoothed out by the fact that such a drop in weighted average prices for retail space is localized by district. In new residential areas and business districts, it is barely noticeable, while in areas close to the center, where class “B” real estate and below are located, the cheapening of premises and a sharp increase in leased space is noticeable to everyone at once.

Warehouses

Almost the same rules apply to warehouses as to retail space. This is also a risky area. But it is in this area that the emphasis in the analysis is often placed on the technical component of warehouse buildings. Storage space must be well organized.

A modern warehouse is a small mechanized enterprise, so the size and organization of the space inside the building should not be an obstacle for warehouse equipment.

Investments in warehouses are much less common than in office or retail real estate.

They are relevant mainly in areas of large cargo transportation, or in industrialized areas, where business is constantly looking for such premises.

What to expect in the near future?

The commercial real estate market in Russia has just experienced a significant downturn. In large cities, rental rates fell by an average of 10-20%. Firms began to divest their real estate assets en masse, which led to an increase in supply. Business is still too weak to overcome the negative trend.

Briefly speaking about the forecast for commercial real estate, it can be argued that it is too early to say that the crisis is over for the market. Real estate has not started to massively rise in price, and in most cities it periodically still falls, then grows in price by several percent.

ATTENTION. According to commercial real estate analysts, most likely we will see positive changes and a return of prices to pre-crisis levels 1-1.5 years after the start of economic growth in Russia.

Investments

With an average capital, it is best to invest in small category "C" offices.

Now they are in demand among tenants, even if they are located much far from the center.

If we talk about retail space, it is best, if possible, to buy real estate in the center of megalopolises..

Analysis of rental rates in the dealer sector

The rental rate depends on the current supply volume and the general macroeconomic environment... As the analysis of commercial real estate leases has shown, in the conditions of stagnation and recession, supply is at its peak, landlords compete for each tenant and keep prices low.

But, as the analysis of commercial real estate rental rates has shown, as soon as capital returns to the sector and business activity grows, prices will return to the pre-crisis level and exceed it by 20-30%.

Let's summarize. Real estate is highly responsive to macroeconomic cycles. During the crisis, the supply of rent and purchase and sale increases. The most sustainable investments during a recession are mid-range offices and small-scale sales areas.

Prices for commercial real estate in Moscow are formed on the basis of the database of ads on the real estate site. Residential and commercial property prices are calculated separately. Also, the cost of apartments and houses is calculated separately. For apartments and houses, we have separate pages: Prices for houses in Moscow and Prices for apartments and rooms in Moscow.

Every six hours, we save the minimum, average and maximum prices (5, 50, 95 quantiles of the price distribution, respectively) for all possible combinations of transaction type, category and locality. Together with the price, the average area of ​​the corresponding objects is saved in order to be able to calculate the price per square meter. Thus, unusually expensive or cheap properties are excluded from statistics.

To build graphs, the corresponding parameters are averaged over the days within the selected period. If there is not enough statistical data for any parameter to draw a continuous line, it is excluded from the general picture.

Prices for the sale and rental of commercial real estate

Dynamics of prices for the sale of commercial real estate

Dynamics of prices for lease of commercial real estate

Average cost per square meter

The average cost per square meter is calculated as the median of the distribution of the price divided by the median of the distribution of living space, grouped by category.

Number of ads

Distribution of currently active ads by type of transaction and category of real estate.

Prices by area on the map

Shown is the average price per square meter grouped by district. Expensive areas visually differ from cheaper ones.

In January 2019, 1,972 commercial real estate objects with a total area of ​​1,220 thousand square meters were offered for rent. m. The volume of supply for the month in terms of quantity decreased by 34%, and in terms of total area - by 26%. The average rental rate for the month decreased by 2% and from ...

19.02.2019

Review of the market for the sale of commercial real estate in Moscow. January 2019

In January, 658 objects with a total area of ​​873 thousand square meters were offered for sale. m and a total cost of 153 billion rubles, which is 58% lower than in December in terms of quantity and by 54% in terms of total area. The weighted average price for the month in rubles did not change and amounted to ...

04.02.2019

Review of the market for the sale of commercial real estate in Moscow. December 2018

In December, 1,578 objects with a total area of ​​1,925 thousand square meters were offered for sale. m and a total cost of 335 billion rubles, which is 58% higher than in November, both in terms of quantity and total area. The weighted average price in rubles for the month increased by 9% and ...

04.02.2019

Review of the commercial real estate rental market in Moscow. December 2018

In December 2018, 2,968 commercial real estate objects with a total area of ​​1,641 thousand square meters were offered for rent. m. The volume of supply for the month in terms of quantity increased by 4%, and in terms of total area - by 5%. The average rental rate for the month has not changed and the composition of ...

04.02.2019

Commercial real estate market in Moscow. Results of 2018

Negative factors continue to have a significant impact on the commercial real estate market, as a result of which there has been no significant growth. Our forecast a year ago that, in the absence of significant prerequisites for growth in macroeconomics ...

19.12.2018

Review of the market for the sale of commercial real estate in Moscow. November 2018

In November, 997 objects with a total area of ​​1,219 thousand square meters were offered for sale. m and a total cost of 194 billion rubles, which is 16% lower than in October in terms of quantity and 24% in terms of the total area. The weighted average price in rubles for the month increased by 11% and amounted to ...

19.12.2018

Review of the commercial real estate rental market in Moscow. November 2018

In November 2018, 2,671 commercial real estate objects with a total area of ​​1,377 thousand square meters were offered for rent. m. The volume of supply for the month in terms of quantity decreased by 6%, and in terms of total area - by 12%. The average rental rate for the month increased by 6% and amounted to ...

27.11.2018

Review of the market for the sale of commercial real estate in Moscow. October 2018

In October, 1,183 objects with a total area of ​​1,609 thousand square meters were offered for sale. m and a total cost of 231 billion rubles, which is 11% higher than in September, both in terms of quantity and total area. The weighted average price for the month in rubles decreased by 5% and ...

27.11.2018

Overview of the commercial real estate rental market in Moscow, October 2018

In October 2018, 2,846 commercial real estate objects with a total area of ​​1,559 thousand square meters were offered for rent. m. The volume of supply for the month in terms of quantity increased by 25%, and in terms of total area - by 16%. The average rental rate for the month increased by 5% and ...

12.11.2018

Results of the III quarter of 2018 in the commercial real estate market of Moscow

Despite the rise in prices for certain segments of commercial real estate, the market stagnates as a whole. The fact that, in contrast to the rental market, in the sales market, prices for individual segments move in different directions may indicate that ...

In 2015, the commercial real estate market was under strong pressure from low oil prices, ruble devaluation, high inflation and international sanctions, which limited access to cheap capital. As a result, business activity dropped significantly, the GDP fell by 3.5%, consumer demand fell by 8.5%, and this led to an outflow of tenants, which, against the backdrop of high supply, caused a decrease in rental rates and an increase in vacancies.

In 2018, experts do not predict big shocks in the commercial real estate market, as well as significant improvements. The best option can only be stability with zero dynamics of the main indicators, and a return to the "pre-crisis" indicators in the coming years is definitely impossible. In this article, we will analyze the indicators for 2018 and consider the factors that influence the formation of supply and demand.

What to choose from

Usually, this market segment is the first to react to it; in addition, it should be borne in mind that in big cities it is more sensitive than in the provinces. Below we will review the different proposals and consider the impact of the crisis on each of them.

Warehouses

In 2015, the maximum demand in the entire history of the warehouse niche was formed in the amount of 1.3 million square meters, while the share of foreign capital in rent remained at the level of 30%, which is typical for the Moscow region. The volume of large transactions amounted to 50% of the demand - these are contracts on an area of ​​over 30,000 square meters, it is interesting that in 56% of transactions retailers were end users. Large players take advantage of the situation, adequately assessing the effectiveness of long-term investments, therefore, right now they are buying liquid real estate at good prices for further business development. The volume of vacancies in the sector reaches 1,000,000 square meters, and prices have dropped to 4,500-4200 rubles per square meter.

Thus, the trends of 2015 (an increase in supply and a decrease in prices) will become a reality in 2016, and in the current conditions only the most efficient developers who will build for a specific client will be able to work. But even with a slowdown in new construction to 700,000 square meters, the supply volume will decrease by a maximum of 8% -9%, and this will keep prices at the current level. It is expected that the volume of transactions will not exceed 1,000,000 square meters and only half of them will be related to the growth and development of companies, the rest are new contracts for occupied space.

Commercial premises

At the end of 15, the increase in retail space in Russia amounted to 1.6 million square meters, of which the regions account for 1.05 million (67% of the total). In 2016, the commissioning of shopping centers will decrease by 15%, mainly due to a decrease in supply in Moscow and cities with a population of 500,000-1,000,000 people. At the same time, the share of vacant space varies greatly depending on the city, quality and location of the facility. Usually, in every city there are projects with a good location, almost completely filled with tenants. However, on average, in cities with a population of over one million, the volume of supply increased to 7% -8% (in mid-2014 it was 5% -6%).

The volume of commissioning of retail space in Moscow in 2015 amounted to 440,000 square meters, which is 40% less than in 2014, when a record volume of new space in shopping centers was commissioned. This indicator remains too high for the current level of demand. In 2016, the supply will remain at the level of 390,000 sq. meters, while the absorption volume will decrease by 42% -47% compared to 2014. Most shopping centers opened in 2015 with a large level of vacant space (50% -80%), and experts believe that their filling time will grow to 2-3 years.

The prime rental rate for this type of commercial real estate in 15 was USD 1,650 per square meter, having decreased by 20% compared to the 14th, and this trend will continue in 2016. The rental price is increasingly fixed in rubles, and the owners are ready to make discounts for the first year with a gradual increase in payment in subsequent periods. Payment in the form of a percentage of the turnover has often begun to be used. New schemes allow owners and tenants to find a compromise that is acceptable to all parties.

Offices

According to experts, the office segment of the market suffered the most from the crisis. The volume of commissioned office space in 2015 amounted to 627,000 square meters, which is 55% less than in 2014, and in 2018 the commissioning of class A and B offices will remain at the level of 2016-17 and will amount to 650,000 square meters due to facilities that were supposed to be completed back in 2015.

Last year, a historical maximum of free space for the whole was recorded - on average, it is 1.5 times higher than the same indicator of 2009. Despite the slowdown in the pace of new construction, its volumes exceed the level of demand, and an excess of supply has formed on the market. At the moment, about 3.2 million square meters of offices are vacant, which means that every sixth meter remains free. Therefore, in 2016, transactions to revise commercial terms will prevail: a further decrease in dollar rental rates and a fixation of the value in rubles are expected.

In 2018, analysts predict that the market will continue to fall, but the pace will slow down. In the long term, rental prices will stabilize and competition between owners will intensify. Property owners will use various methods to increase competitiveness to attract the attention of tenants, for example, flexible rates, provision of additional services, improvement of service quality. The conditions in the market will be set by tenants, and landlords will have to make concessions.

What to expect

Investment activity is declining - this is due to

· The decline in business activity leads to a drop in demand in all market segments, as a result, the cost of renting and selling objects shows a negative trend. Analysts note that the most positive forecasts provide for a zero price movement, in all other cases, prices are falling on the market.

· In 2016, the process of transition to the ruble settlement system was completed. Back in 2015, most transactions began to be carried out in rubles, and this year the habit of indicating nominal dollar rates and writing the value of objects in US dollars will disappear into oblivion.

· Another trend of the coming year is the re-profiling of objects, which primarily refers to office real estate, because this segment has the largest surplus. Most likely, office complexes will be partially rebuilt into apartments, and promising construction projects may be replaced by residential ones.

· The most important objects during the crisis are shops in the "discount" and fix-price format, district shopping centers with a good location, inexpensive restaurants and food courts. In the office segment, class B + centers with an adequate pricing policy have prospects. As for the warehouses, built-to-suit complexes and warehouses with economical “cutting” will not be empty. Back in 2014, the owners of large warehouse facilities began to reformat them so as not to be left without tenants, and in 2016 this trend will intensify.

Investments

In 2015, investments in commercial real estate fell to 3 billion rubles, the lowest level since 2006. The main share of investments fell on office space (47%), retail space - 29%, and warehouse space - 15%. Foreign investment decreased by 40% to $ 800 million and accounted for 22% of the total.

Experts believe that in 2018 the volume of transactions will remain at the level of 2016-17, and further market behavior will depend on Low rates of development allow investors right now to acquire liquid real estate for the future, and the interest from Asian investors shown back in 2016 may outgrow into the concluded deals.

The specialists of the international consulting company Knight Frank have compiled a rating of development companies in the retail real estate segment by the size of their portfolio at the moment. In total, the list includes 15 largest companies with a portfolio of at least 190 thousand square meters. m of retail space.

Not quantity, but quality

Analysis of the market for shopping centers in St. Petersburg based on the results of the 1st quarter of 2019: over the past quarter, the minimum volume of new tenants in four years was opened in the shopping center. At the same time, they appeared as part of a rotation to improve the pool of operators, which ultimately leads to an increase in rental rates in the market.

The provision of Russians with outlets is 7 times lower than in Europe

Analysts of the international consulting company Knight Frank noted that the provision of Russians with outlet format stores at the lowest level in Europe - 1.1 sq. m / 1000 people against 9.2 sq. m / 1000 people on average in European countries and 90 sq. m / 1000 people in USA. There are more than 200 outlets in America, about 150 in Europe, and only 6 in Russia.

Russians "do not finish" coffee for 1 trillion rubles

According to the international consulting company Knight Frank, the third wave of coffee shop openings is currently taking place on the Russian market. Unlike the first two, since 2013 small author chains of coffee houses and coffee bars have been actively developing against the backdrop of changes in consumer behavior. However, the coffee shop market is far from saturation. Now in cities with a population of over 5,000 there are about 5,000 coffee houses, while the market volume is 130 billion rubles, and the potential, taking into account consumer opportunities, is 1 trillion rubles, which is 7.6 more than the current market saturation. The potential of the Moscow market is more than 120 billion rubles, which is 4 times higher than the current value.

What awaits the commercial real estate market in 2019

Cushman & Wakefield experts told what awaits the commercial real estate market in 2019. The main challenges for the Russian economy in the coming years will be rising inequality and disparity. The gap between leaders and outsiders will grow in all market segments.

The volume of new construction of retail real estate in 2019 will grow by 45%

In the retail real estate market in 2019, an increase in construction activity is expected. According to a report by Marketbeat Cushman & Wakefield, new construction in 2019 will amount to 700,000 sq. m, which is 45% more than in 2018.

In 2018, a record number of foreign brands left the Russian market, and the number of new brands is the minimum over the past 5 years.

Analysts of the international consulting company Knight Frank summed up the results of 2018 in the Moscow retail real estate market and found that 135.1 thousand sq. M. Were commissioned in 2018. m, which is the lowest figure in the past 10 years. At the same time, the vacancy decreased by 1.5% p.p. up to 7%.

The anti-records in the retail segment did not end there - in 2018, the lowest indicator for the release of new brands was recorded (22 operators against 37 in 2017) against the background of the highest indicator for the closure of retailers (12 operators left the market). In 2018, 1.5 times more retailers left than in 2017, then 8 brands announced their withdrawal, and this is the highest closure rate since 2012.

Results of the retail real estate market in 2018 in St. Petersburg

At the end of 2018, for the first time since 2014, there was a significant increase in the segment of high-quality retail space. The volume of commissioning was 128,200 sq. M, which is 3% of the total market volume.

How the retail market developed in 2018

2018 was characterized by a relative “warming” in the development of retail and public catering. This tendency was typical not only for million-plus cities, but also for other regions of Russia. This is evidenced by the results of industry research conducted by RealJet.

International brands 2018. Degree of development in Russia

For the second year in a row, international brands of the “Economy” price category do not enter the Russian market. More than half of new brands belong to the middle price segment. From the second quarter of 2017 to the first quarter of 2018, 33 new brands entered the Russian market, and 21 brands left the market. Such data are provided in a study by the company"Shop of shops".

Moscow shopping and entertainment centers are “shallow”: by 2020 85% of projects are planned in the format of small shopping centers

Analysts of the international company Knight Frank have found that almost all new shopping centers that have entered the market since the beginning of this year and are planned to open by the end of 2018 in Moscow belong to the format of small shopping centers (GLA up to 20 thousand sq. M.). By the end of 2020, it is planned to bring about 57 new shopping centers to the capital market, of which about 85% of the objects (49 projects) correspond to the regional scale. This is largely indicative of the market's transition from the megamall format to regional shopping centers.

CBRE has analyzed the Russian outlet market

The largest number of outlet openings in Russian history is expected by the end of 2019: the outlet market will grow by 95,700 sq. m.

After the World Cup, the growth of the vacancy rate began in St. Petersburg street retail

According to JLL, by the end of the 3rd quarter, the share of vacant premises in the main shopping streets of St. Petersburg increased from 7.5% to 7.8%. The most significant increase in the vacancy rate is at the level of 1-2 pp. - occurred on lines 6-7 of V.O., Sadovaya Street and Moskovsky Prospekt. At the same time, the indicator on the main part of Nevsky Prospekt changed insignificantly in July-September and amounted to about 4%.

The volume of commissioning of shopping centers in Moscow in 2018 may become the minimum in six years

According to JLL, in the first three quarters of 2018, only 98 thousand square meters were commissioned in Moscow. m of retail space, which is 13% less than in the same period last year. It should be noted that no shopping center was opened in Moscow in the 3rd quarter.

The maximum volume of new tenants in the shopping center of St. Petersburg was recorded in the 3rd quarter of 2018

According to JLL, the volume of stores opened or announced for the upcoming opening in shopping centers of St. Petersburg in the 3rd quarter of 2018 exceeded 83 thousand square meters. m. This is the highest quarterly value on the quality retail real estate market over the past 10 years.

Since the beginning of 2018, 1.5 times fewer new brands have come to Russia

Since the beginning of this year, 17 new international brands have entered the Russian market, which is almost 1.5 times less compared to the same indicator in 2017 (28 brands), according to a study by the international consulting company Knight Frank.