Dynamics of the us dollar exchange rate. Exchange rate

What do you know about the USD-RUB currency pair? Russian trailers track the dynamics of the growth of foreign currency and measure its ratio with the Russian ruble. This must be carefully monitored in order to understand how much rubles you will give if you decide to buy US dollars.

The importance of changes in the dollar-ruble currency pair

Why should the residents of Russia follow the changes in the foreign exchange market? First of all, this is especially important information for those who already have currency, or are going to conduct financial transactions with it. However, the average citizen of the Russian Federation who prefers to vacation abroad or travel, it would also be nice to keep abreast of the events taking place in the currency market. Considering that the dollar / ruble exchange rate is often unstable, how to understand what factors determine its fluctuations? As a rule, this pair of currencies is sensitive to the following signs:

changes in gas and oil prices,
changes in the exchange rate of the euro and the dollar,
the average cost of a currency at exchange auctions, etc.

The ruble and factors affecting the change and dynamics of the exchange rate

The ruble is a commodity currency approved in the country by the Bank of Russia. As the national currency, the value of the Russian ruble is determined and established by state authorities, namely the Central Bank. The calculation of the official exchange rate of the dollar in relation to the Russian ruble is also carried out and published by this structural unit.

What has a significant effect on the growth or decline in the value of the exchange rate? Of course, these can be both internal and external factors:

Delay / acceleration of international payments.
The cost of "black gold" or oil on the world market (as the main external factor).
Interest rates and their differences in different European countries.
Monetary inflation rate.
Monetary policy of the country, increasing or decreasing the exchange rate.
Balance of payments and its state at the current time.
The level of confidence in the country's currency.
Conducting all kinds of speculative operations.
Active activity of the Forex market and some other components.

Taking into account all these determining factors, the Central Bank revises the US dollar against the ruble on a daily basis and sets its coefficient for the next day.

Is it possible to predict the future course in advance?

The answer is negative. After all, it is difficult to predict what exactly at the current moment is capable of provoking the dynamics of the exchange rate in such a way that it will become the most profitable for the buyer. Especially when you consider that there are too many reasons and events that have an impact on the change in the position of monetary units in the market to accurately calculate the probability of positive changes. In addition, it is important to take into account the high level of liquidity of the dollar / ruble pair.

What happens to the US dollar when it depreciates against other European currencies (euros, etc.)? Naturally, in relation to the ruble, it also falls in value.

In any case, Forex services will help you determine the most profitable rate so that you can confidently buy or sell the available currency.

What does the exchange rate depend on? It is impossible to answer this question unequivocally, but the fact that it is determined by the market is an axiom. And yet, what factors influence changes in currency quotes? There are several of them. First of all, this is the ratio of imports and exports. Everything is very simple, if the price of a product in the domestic market is much higher than in the foreign market, then this will lead to an increase in imports and, accordingly, to a decrease in exports. This fact is called the "purchasing power parity" of the exchange rate. What is meant by this concept? This is an indicator that shows how the ratio of prices for goods in the domestic and foreign markets of two countries affects the ratio of the rates of their currencies. We can say that currency changes are directly proportional to price changes. This can be seen in a simple example. If one of the countries increases imports, then the price of foreign currency also increases.

And one more important factor. The growth of imports always precedes the growth of national income. In turn, with its increase, the price of the national currency falls. A similar situation is observed in the financial market. The more investors contribute to the shares of foreign companies, the higher the price of foreign currency.

If one of the countries pays for the services of another state, then its currency increases in value. This factor is the basis for the speculative operations of traders in the foreign exchange market. As soon as the currency falls in price, they try to get rid of it. The massive release of funds into the market provokes an even greater fall in prices. In addition, the fall in the exchange rate is due to the news. They can be directly related to politics, natural disasters, financial shocks, etc. All this leads to a sharp movement of capital in one direction, which in turn leads to a sharp change in the exchange rate.

This kind of movement can be caused not by the news itself, but by their anticipation. As an example, we can cite the expectation of the publication of economic indicators of those countries whose currencies are represented on the foreign exchange market. Also, a sharp jump in the currency can be caused by changes in the interest rate, which is sometimes used by market regulators.

All new economic indicators are published in the economic calendar, the date of which is known in advance. It is quite understandable that the market is also preparing for such an event, reacting to it with changes in exchange rates. Traders prefer to wait out this period and not enter the market, as it is rather difficult to predict its behavior at this moment. However, there is a special trading strategy called “news trading”. Based on it, you can make forecasts that allow you to determine the direction of the trend and make appropriate adjustments to it.

For example, we expect the US dollar to rise. This will happen in a month, but you need to buy the dollar now. After the news is released and the trend is corrected, the dollar can be sold, making money on the difference in currencies.

In addition to the above factors, the movement of the exchange rate is influenced by the activities of investment and insurance funds. Having huge funds, they can invest in currency, which leads to a sharp change in the exchange rate. In this case, it is important for a trader to anticipate events and open a position in time in the direction of the trend movement.

Once again, we draw your attention to the fact that significant changes in the foreign exchange market can be caused by: the statements of politicians, the activities of importers and exporters, various forecasts and even rumors, the actions of central banks carrying out foreign exchange interventions, the inflation rate, the merger of banks, the devaluation of the national currency. What is important for a trader is to understand the essence of what is happening and, on the basis of this, make correct predictions that allow for successful trading.

U.S. dollar- the official currency of the United States of America. Bank code - USD. It is denoted by the $ sign. 1 dollar is equal to 100 cents. Banknote denominations in circulation: 100, 50, 20, 10, 5, 2 (relatively rare banknote), 1 dollar, as well as coins of 1 dollar, 50, 25, 10, 5 and 1 cent. In addition, there are banknotes in denominations of 500, 1,000, 5,000, 10,000 and 100,000, which were previously used for mutual settlements within the framework of the Federal Reserve System, but since 1945 are no longer issued, and since 1969 they have been officially withdrawn from circulation, since they were replaced by an electronic payment system. The name of the monetary unit, according to the most common version, comes from the medieval thaler coin minted in Germany.

Traditionally, the obverse of the US dollar depicts the presidents and politicians of the United States. On modern banknotes, these are Benjamin Franklin - $ 100, Ulysses Grant - 50, Andrew Jackson - 20, Alexander Hamilton - 10, Abraham Lincoln - 5, Thomas Jefferson - 2 and George Washington - 1 dollar. The reverse side depicts historical monuments: $ 100 - Independence Hall, where the Declaration of Independence was signed, 50 - Capitol, 20 - White House, 10 - US Treasury, 5 - Lincoln Memorial in Washington. The 1 dollar banknote on the back has a special design consisting of a double-sided image of the so-called Great Seal of the United States, used to authenticate documents issued by the government and stored in Washington.

It is believed that in order to counter the printing of counterfeit dollars, the design should be changed at least once every 7-10 years. Moreover, absolutely all US banknotes issued since 1861, when money was first issued in paper form, are legal tender in the United States.

For the first time, the decision to issue US dollars was made by Congress in 1786, and in 1792 they became the main settlement currency of the state. Since 1796, the principle of a bimetallic currency was introduced, that is, both silver and gold coins were minted. Moreover, each time, as a result of a change in the ratio of prices for two precious metals, either one or the other coins disappeared from circulation. Until 1857, foreign money (primarily Spanish pesos, and later Mexican dollars) also served as legal tender in the United States.

In 1900, the gold standard law was passed. At this point, $ 1 was equivalent to 1.50463 grams of pure gold. In 1933, it was devalued by 41% for the first time as a result of the Great Depression. A troy ounce of gold is now worth $ 35.

At the end of World War II, as a result of the Bretton Woods agreement, the dollar became the only currency exchanged for gold, while the rates of other world currencies were pegged to the American one. At the same time, in the postwar years, the United States became Europe's main creditor. Thus, the US dollar became the world's settlement currency and took its place in the reserves of central banks.

However, by 1960, the chronic budget deficit in the United States led to the fact that the amount of dollars held by creditors around the world exceeded the size of the gold reserve. The crisis of 1969-70 complicated the situation. As a result, in 1971, the exchange of dollars for gold was finally stopped after the corresponding statement by President Richard Nixon.

During the 1970s, the dollar depreciated. The situation was aggravated by the crisis of 1975-76. In 1976, as a result of an international agreement, a new one, the Jamaican Monetary System, was created, which finally legalized the refusal of gold backing of currencies.

The strengthening of the dollar in the 1980s put American producers at a disadvantage relative to other countries. As a result, it was decided to devalue the dollar by cutting interest rates. And by 1991, it was possible to virtually halve the exchange rate against the Japanese yen, pound and deutsche mark.

In 1992, as a result of the fall of the British pound sterling and the crisis in Europe, the dollar rose in price by almost 30%, but from April 1993 its quotations began to decline again - until 1998, when there was a significant weakening of the dollar against the Japanese yen - from 136 up to 111 within three days. This was due to the massive repatriation of funds from Japanese investors as a result of the crisis in the markets of developing countries, including the default in Russia.

1999-2001 is a period of new strengthening of the US dollar, which was stopped by the Federal Reserve, which cut interest rates to 2% in order to stimulate the economy.

The most important development for the dollar was the creation in 1999 of the single European currency, into which the central banks of many countries - the creditor of the United States transferred part of their reserves.

For the summer of 2011, the US dollar is quoted at 1.40-1.46 dollars per euro, 76-78 Japanese yen per dollar and 1.62-64 dollars per pound.

Despite the competition from the euro, today the currency of the United States occupies a leading place in the reserves of central banks. In addition, it remains the main settlement currency between countries in international trade, and is also the base one for payments through payment systems using plastic cards outside the European Union zone, where the euro prevails.

The US dollar is the main currency of the Forex market. Transactions are processed through this currency and basic quotes are set.

The opinions of experts regarding the future of the dollar are diametrically opposed. On the one hand, many believe that the collapse of the dollar financial system is inevitable in the near future due to the huge external debt of the United States, the largest in the world. For the summer of 2011, it exceeds $ 14.5 trillion.

On the other hand, the stability of the dollar is based on high economic indicators. The US economy ranks first in terms of gross domestic product, ahead of China, which is in second position, almost twice. In addition, the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve System, as well as the faith of investors who keep their assets in the US currency and seek to convert them into dollars during crises, seek to convert them into dollars in US debt instruments, finding a refuge from the elements of the market economy in US debt instruments, contributes to the high dollar rate.

Exchange rate- the expression of the price of the monetary unit of one country in the monetary units of another.

Establishing an exchange rate by assessing a foreign currency in the national currency is called a direct quotation. The reverse quote represents the price of the national currency in foreign currency (1 ruble = 0.035 USD).

Classification of types of exchange rates:

I. By type of transaction:

a) urgent - used when concluding urgent foreign exchange contracts;
b) SPOT rate - short-term exchange rate at a given time.

II. For inflation accounting:

a) nominal - the exchange rate of currencies currently in force on the foreign exchange market of the country;
b) real - is calculated as the ratio of the prices of goods of two countries, taken in the corresponding currency.

III. In relation to the participants in the transaction:

a) purchase rate;
b) selling rate.

IV. By way of sale:

a) cash sale rate;
b) the rate of cashless sale.

V. By the method of establishing:

a) official;
b) unofficial (market).

According to the IMF classification, a country can choose the following exchange rate regimes:

1) Fixed. The exchange rate of the national currency is fixed in relation to one voluntarily chosen currency and automatically changes in the same proportions as the base rate; or fixed to SDR; or a "basket" exchange rate is set. In this case, the rate of the national currency is tied to a currency combination that includes the currencies of the main trading partners of a given country.
2) Free floating. As a rule, it does not occur in its pure form, since the Central Banks conduct foreign exchange interventions in order to prevent sharp significant fluctuations in the national currency rate.
3) Mixed. This is the so-called group voyage, when countries unite into a common monetary union and establish two exchange rate regimes: internal - for transactions within the union; external - for operations with other countries. For example, OPEC countries have linked their rates to oil prices.

Factors affecting the value of the exchange rate are divided into structural (acting in the long term) and conjuncture (causing short-term fluctuations in the exchange rate).

Structural factors include:

* the state of the country's balance of payments;
* purchasing power of monetary units and inflation dark;
* the difference in interest rates in different countries;
* state regulation of the exchange rate;
* the degree of openness of the economy.

Market factors are associated with fluctuations in business activity in the country, political situation, rumors and forecasts, such as:

· Demand and supply in the foreign exchange market;
· Crises, wars, natural disasters;
· Forecasts and expectations of foreign exchange market participants;
· The cyclical nature of business activity in the country.

Let us consider in more detail the mechanism of influence of the main factors on the value of the exchange rate.

Supply and demand in the foreign exchange market

In modern conditions, the exchange rate is formed, like any market price, under the influence of supply and demand in the foreign exchange market.

The demand and supply of foreign currency in the national foreign exchange market is determined depending on the demand for imports and the supply of exports.

The analysis proceeds from the following prerequisites:

1. Lack of international credit.
2. Foreign currency is used only in transactions for the export-import of goods and services.
3. Residents want to have currency on hand at the end of transactions his country.
4. The Central Bank does not interfere with the activity of the foreign exchange market.
5. Levels of prices and volumes of aggregate demand in both countries are given and unchanged.

I. Formation of demand for foreign currency

If the price of foreign currency (in relation to the national one) rises, then, consequently, imported products become more expensive for national buyers. This leads to a decrease in demand for imported products, and, consequently, for foreign currency to buy them.

r - value of foreign currency in national currency units (direct quotation)

Dx - demand for foreign currency in the national foreign exchange market

Mx is the amount of foreign currency in the national currency market.

The demand curve for foreign exchange has a negative slope.

II. Formation of the supply of foreign currency in the national currency market

If the price of foreign currency rises, then the price of the national currency decreases accordingly in relation to the foreign one. This means that domestic products for foreigners (domestic exports) are getting cheaper. Consequently, the demand of foreigners for domestic products will increase and the volume of exports will increase. As a result, exporters will bring in more foreign currency and its supply in the national currency market will increase.

The supply curve of foreign currency in the national foreign exchange market has a positive slope:

Sx - foreign currency supply

III. Formation of an equilibrium exchange rate

In the absence of fixing the exchange rate by the Central Bank, the equilibrium exchange rate r0 is determined at the point of intersection of the demand curves Dx and supply Sx:

The equilibrium exchange rate may change under the influence of the following factors:

1) an increase in demand from the outside world for the goods of a given country. This leads to an increase in the demand for the national currency and the supply of foreign currency. The foreign exchange rate is declining, and the national one is growing.

2) switching consumption from domestic to imported goods. This will cause an increase in the demand for foreign exchange.

Purchasing power parity and exchange rate

In the long term, there is a fairly close relationship between exchange rates and changes in price levels. This is due to the development of trade relations and the formation of world market prices for a fairly large range of goods produced in various countries.

The possibility of movement of goods from the market of one country to the market of another country tends to smooth out the difference in the price movements of the main goods involved in international trade. As a result, prices for certain goods, expressed in units of a currency, are approximately the same in different countries. Deviations depend on import tariffs and transport costs. If we abstract from the latter, then the exchange rate will depend on its purchasing power.

If, for example, the price of goods A = $ 20, and on the national market it is sold for 60 den. units, then the rate of the national currency in relation to the dollar will be: 3/1, that is, for 1 dollar it is necessary to pay 3 den. units of national currency. With this ratio of currencies, their purchasing power is the same.

This level of exchange rate is called purchasing power parity.

Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) is the level of the exchange rate of currencies that equalizes the purchasing power of each of them.

r = P / Px or P = r Px,

r - foreign currency rate or foreign currency value in national currency units;

Р - prices on the domestic market;

Px - prices. expressed in units of foreign currency.

The PPP theory finds its confirmation when the trends in exchange rates and inflation rates are compared. According to this theory, an increase in prices by 10% leads to a decrease in the exchange rate of the national currency by 10% in relation to the currency of a country in which the price level has not changed.

The concept of PPP is not very accurate, since it depends on the structure of the market set of goods and services, which forms the basis for comparison. However, there is no single and optimal way of choosing a "consumer basket", and therefore, this concept presupposes the existence of a certain range of exchange rates.

This theory is generally confirmed, first, for countries with high inflation; secondly, if inflation rates are low, then for long-term periods, since it takes time to equalize prices through international trade.

The rate of inflation affects the exchange rate. The higher the inflation rate in a country, the lower the rate of its currency, if other factors are not opposed. The inflationary depreciation of money in the country causes a decrease in purchasing power and a tendency for their exchange rate to fall against the currencies of countries where the inflation rate is lower. This trend is usually seen in the medium and long term. The equalization of the exchange rate, bringing it into line with purchasing power parity, takes place on average within two years.

The dependence of the exchange rate on the rate of inflation is especially high for countries with a large volume of international exchange of goods, services and capital.

Changes in interest rates affect the exchange rate in two ways. On the one hand, their nominal increase within the country causes a decrease in demand for the national currency, since it becomes unprofitable for entrepreneurs to take out a loan. Taking it, entrepreneurs increase the cost of their products, which, in turn, leads to an increase in the prices of goods within the country. This significantly depreciates the national currency in relation to foreign ones.

On the other hand, an increase in real interest rates (i.e., commemorative interest rates adjusted for inflation) makes it more profitable for foreigners, all other things being equal, to invest in this country. That is why capital flows into a country with higher real interest rates, the demand for its currency increases, and it becomes more expensive.

Thus, a change in interest rates can both directly and inversely affect the value of the exchange rate.

Exchange rate- the price (quotation) of the monetary unit of one country, expressed in the monetary unit of another country, precious metals, securities.

As in any market, the demand for currency and its supply is concentrated in the foreign exchange market, and the price of the currency as a special commodity is formed. The unit price of a foreign currency, expressed in national currency, is the exchange (exchange rate) rate. Thus, the exchange rate expresses the ratio between the monetary institutions of different countries.

In general, the exchange rate system is a set of rules by which the role of the Central Bank in the foreign exchange market is described. Particular cases of systems are rigidly fixed exchange rates and absolutely flexible exchange rates, which are set in foreign exchange markets without the intervention of the Central Bank.

Changes in exchange rates can occur for various reasons, but nevertheless, the main ones can be distinguished:

1. Output (publication) of economic data, waiting for their release.

What economic data release can affect the exchange rate? First of all, this is the publication of indicators of economic indicators of those countries whose currencies are traded, or a change in the refinancing interest rate. Also, various reviews about the financial and economic situation of countries, other economic events, for example, the end of the financial year, public speeches of heads of state (or other top officials of the country) with statements about planned changes in state policy, presentation of projects can also influence the price of the national currency. the state budget and many others.

In anticipation of these events, exchange rates are subject to significant fluctuations. Sometimes the expectation of an event (for example, the publication of a new interest rate of a state) more intensely affects the exchange rate of this country than the event itself. Therefore, the release of such important economic data as the Nonfarm payrolls, Industrial production, CPI, GDP, PPI indices can lead to tangible movements in the market rates of various currencies.

2. Activities of foundations.

The activities of various funds (pension, investment, insurance) also affect the fluctuations in exchange rates in the market. After all, the direction of activity of these funds is investing money in various currencies. They are quite capable of influencing the movement of the course in a certain direction. The vast resources of these funds are managed by professionals - the so-called fund managers. After conducting a serious analysis of the state of the financial markets, they open profitable positions in the foreign exchange market, trying to work, as it were, ahead of events. Significant amounts of funds are capable of realistically managing even the strongest trends. Naturally, this should not be some small pawnshop, but a fairly large enterprise.

3. Activities of market exporters and importers.

Exporters and importers are users of the foreign exchange market. Exporters sell this or that foreign currency, importers buy it. Large export-import companies, through their in-house currency speculation specialists, try to predict currency fluctuations in order to make profitable trade deals. However, the impact of this group of market participants is rather short-term and is not able to change the direction of global trends, because the percentage of their transactions is small in the total mass of foreign exchange transactions.

4 ... Central Banking Activities.

Through its central bank, the state influences the foreign exchange market. Countries with floating rates of national currencies are trying to regulate the exchange rate of their currencies in the interests of the state with the help of certain currency transactions. In this case, either direct (foreign exchange intervention) or indirect regulation (regulation of the amount of money in circulation) is used.

From this we can conclude that the problems that arise on the way of changes in the exchange rate are directly related to the problems of its change. Those. if any violations or failures occur at one of these points, this leads to the appearance of a problem as a whole.

The problem of changing the exchange rate is its impact on the economy of the state. Those. if changes in the exchange rate somehow affect the economy, then the problem of its change arises.

The exchange rate affects:

· Foreign trade;

· The economic growth;

· Inflation rate, etc.

Factors affecting the exchange rate:

The state of the trade balance;

Relative price change;

Relative changes in income;

Changes in consumer tastes.

Like any price, the exchange rate deviates from the value basis - purchasing power parity of currencies - under the influence of supply and demand of the currency. The ratio of such supply and demand depends on many factors that reflect the relationship of the exchange rate with other economic categories - value, price, money, interest, balance of payments, etc.

Distinguish between market and structural (long-term) factors that affect the exchange rate.

Conjunctural factors are associated with fluctuations in business activity, political and military-political situation, according to rumors (sometimes excitement), guesses and forecasts.

Along with conjunctural factors, the impact of which is difficult to foresee, on the demand and supply of foreign currency, i.e. the dynamics of its exchange rate is also influenced by relatively long-term trends that determine the position of a particular national monetary unit in the currency hierarchy.

These factors include the following:

1. Growth of national income. This factor determines the increased demand for foreign goods, at the same time, merchandise imports can increase the outflow of foreign exchange.

2. The rate of inflation. The ratio of currencies in terms of their purchasing power (purchasing power parity) is a kind of axis of the exchange rate, therefore the rate of inflation affects the exchange rate. The higher the rate of inflation in the country, the lower the rate of its currency, if not opposed by other factors. This trend can usually be traced in the medium long term. The equalization of the exchange rate, bringing it into line with purchasing power parity, takes place on average within two years.

3. The state of the balance of payments. The active balance of payments contributes to the appreciation of the national currency, since at the same time, the demand for it on the part of external debtors is increasing. A passive balance of payments gives rise to a downward trend in the exchange rate of the national currency, since debtors sell it in foreign currency to pay off their external obligations. In modern conditions, the influence of the international movement of capital on the balance of payments and, accordingly, on the exchange rate has increased, since the competitor of the foreign exchange market is the securities market - stocks, bonds, bills of exchange, short-term deposits.

In developing countries, the securities market can slow down the growth of the foreign exchange rate, diverting free cash from the exchange for hard currency.

4. Difference in interest rates in different countries. The influence of this factor on the exchange rate is determined by two main circumstances. First, the change in interest rates in the country affects, other things being equal, on the international movement of capital, primarily short-term. An increase in the interest rate stimulates the inflow of foreign capital, while its decrease encourages the outflow of capital, including national, abroad. Second, interest rates affect the operations of foreign exchange and debt markets.

5. Activity of foreign exchange markets and speculative foreign exchange transactions. If the rate of any currency tends to decline, then firms and banks sell it in advance for more stable currencies, which worsens the position of the weakened currency. Foreign exchange markets react quickly to changes in the economy and politics, to fluctuations in exchange rates. Thus, they expand the possibilities of currency speculation and the spontaneous movement of "hot" money.

6. The degree of use of a certain currency in the European market and in international settlements. For example, the fact that 60-70% of Eurobank's operations are carried out in dollars determines the scale of demand for this currency and its supply. The rate of the currency is also influenced by the degree of its use in international settlements.

7. The degree of confidence in the currency in the national and world markets. It is determined by the state of the economy and the political situation in the country, as well as by the factors discussed above that affect the exchange rate, and dealers take into account not only the rate of economic growth, inflation, the level of purchasing power of the currency, the ratio of supply and demand of currency, but also the prospects for their dynamics.

8. Exchange rate policy. The ratio of market and government regulation of the exchange rate affects its dynamics. The formation of the exchange rate in the foreign exchange markets through the mechanism of supply and demand of currency, as a rule, is accompanied by sharp fluctuations in exchange rate ratios. The real exchange rate is formed on the market - an indicator of the state of the economy, money circulation, finance, credit and the degree of confidence in a particular currency. State regulation of the exchange rate is aimed at increasing or decreasing it based on the tasks of monetary and economic policy.

9. The degree of development of the stock market, which is a competitor to the foreign exchange market. The stock market can attract foreign currency directly, as well as "pull" funds in the national currency, which could be used in the foreign exchange market to buy foreign currency.

Currency regulation policy during the period of the currency and financial crisis

The reasons for the emergence of a currency crisis within a particular state are considered to be the conduct of an inadequate currency regulation policy, in particular, an inadequate exchange rate regime and insufficient measures to equalize the balance of payments, as well as the consequences of currency crises in other countries with economic ties with this country. In the situation of the monetary and financial crisis in Ukraine, both of these reasons can be noted. For a long time, the artificially maintained balance of the financial market in Ukraine was destroyed by the influence of the financial crisis in Russia.

The instability of exchange rates, aggravating the development of crises, historically led to the development of various theories of the exchange rate, which tried to determine the factors that most strongly affect the change in the exchange rate and develop measures to regulate it: the theory of purchasing power parity, the theory of regulated currency, the theory of the key currency, the theory of currency stability based on fixed parities and rates, the theory of floating exchange rates, the theory of optimal currency zones, the normative theory of the exchange rate. To analyze the currency regulation policy currently used in Ukraine, you can use the criteria and tools that were described by these theories.

The theory of purchasing power parity (D. Hume, D. Ricardo) explained the change in the exchange rate by the ratio of the amount of money in circulation of the respective countries, denying the objective cost basis of the exchange rate.

The theory of regulated currency had two directions: the theory of movable parities (I. Fisher, J.M. Keynes) and the theory of equilibrium rates. The theory of moving parities assumed the impact on the exchange rate by controlling the gold parity of the monetary unit. Keynes recommended depreciation of the national currency in order to influence prices, exports, production and employment in the country, to fight for foreign markets. These guidelines were used by Great Britain and other countries in the 30s. The theory of equilibrium rates assumed that the equilibrium point is such a rate that ensures an equilibrium of the balance of payments. Keynes believed that exchange rates that satisfy the principle of equilibrium should ensure a balance of the balance of payments for current operations and capital flows, and a normal level of employment.

The theory of key currencies (A. Hansen, F. Graham and others) proved the necessity and inevitability of dividing currencies into key, hard and soft; the need to orient the monetary policy of all countries with market economies to the dollar and to support it as a reserve currency, even if this is contrary to national interests.

The theory of currency stability based on fixed parities (J. Robinson, J. Bickerdike and others) recommended a regime of fixed parities and rates, allowing them to change only with a significant imbalance in the balance of payments. Based on economic and mathematical models, the supporters of this theory came to the conclusion that changes in the exchange rate are an ineffective means of regulating the balance of payments due to the insufficient response of foreign trade to price fluctuations in world markets depending on exchange rate ratios.

The theory of floating exchange rates (M. Friedman, A. Lindbeck, G. Johnson) substantiated the necessity and advantages of a floating exchange rate regime in comparison with fixed rates, based on the proposition of the relationship between three economic indicators - money supply, prices and capacity utilization, as well as on the denial of strict state regulation of the economy, including these parameters. M. Friedman proposed to legally prohibit currency intervention, believing that the market will do the job of currency speculators much better than the government. Supporters of the neoclassical direction consider it possible to stabilize the economy by strengthening market factors in the formation of the exchange rate and turning floating rates into an automatic regulator of international settlements.

The theory of optimal currency zones (R. Mundell, A. Collery) developed criteria for establishing real exchange rates, trying to find objective indicators that determine the need and extent of their change.

The normative theory of exchange rates (J. Mead) considered the exchange rate as an additional tool for regulating the economy, recommending the use of a flexible exchange rate regime controlled by the state. The authors of the theory believe that the exchange rate should be based on parities and agreements established by international bodies.

Despite the fact that individually each of the theories described above does not take into account all the factors affecting the exchange rate, in general they give an idea of the possible directions of monetary policy, which may be more or less adequate in a particular financial situation.

Throughout 1997, a stable rate of 1.8-1.9 hryvnia per US dollar was kept in Ukraine. However, this apparent stability was not a consequence of the real stabilization of the economy, but was the result of measures taken by the government aimed at artificially maintaining the exchange rate. The need for such stability was explained by the government's desire to receive loans from the IMF and the world bank, which depended on the fulfillment of certain IMF requirements for domestic economic indicators. To maintain a stable hryvnia exchange rate during the year, the foreign exchange reserves of the National Bank of Ukraine, which at that time amounted to $ 2.3 billion, were thrown onto the Ukrainian Interbank Currency Exchange. By the end of 1998, as a result of the constant excess of demand, US dollars over supply, which was covered by foreign exchange reserves, reduced them to $ 0.8 billion. It should be noted that the NBU's foreign exchange reserve included, for the most part, funds received on credit from the IMF.

Many economists and politicians spoke about the inexpediency of maintaining the exchange rate at an unreasonably low level at the beginning of 1997, suggesting at that time to maintain the NBU rate at a higher level of 2 - 2.1 hryvnia per US dollar. Such a policy would save a significant portion of foreign exchange reserves. However, many economic indicators controlled by the International Monetary Fund were calculated taking into account the US dollar exchange rate, which required the government to pay special attention to this issue. At the same time, there was another point of view that one should not try to contain any unrealistic economic indicators at all costs, as this leads to an imbalance in the national economic system, which, as a result, causes greater losses on a national scale than the expected support of the International Monetary Fund.

However, at that time it was expected that the IMF would soon make a decision on a new tranche of loans, which would allow the government to take control of the economy into its own hands. When it became clear that the decision on the allocation of a tranche of loans by the International Monetary Fund would not be made in the near future, 63% of foreign exchange reserves of the volume at the beginning of 1997 had already been spent. Further maintenance of the hryvnia exchange rate within the established corridor was clearly impossible with the growing demand for dollars.

During the crisis in August 1998, the National Bank of Ukraine established a new currency corridor, the task of which, despite the growing concern, was to create certain guarantees of stability, which at that moment was a guarantee that the situation in the financial market would not finally get out of control. government. The decision on the new corridor was aimed at providing guarantees to investors, which is an important factor influencing the IMF's decision to grant a loan. However, even the introduction of a new corridor with a rather low upper limit led to a sharp reduction in the already depleted reserves of the National Bank. It became obvious that the reserves would not be enough to further maintain the exchange rate. Therefore, the government decided to take additional financial and administrative measures: the mandatory sale of foreign exchange earnings and a complicated procedure for buying foreign exchange on the stock exchange.

Mandatory sale of foreign currency led to a decrease in exports due to a decrease in profits from export sales. The decline in exports, in turn, led to a decrease in the supply of foreign currency on the interbank currency exchange, and also created a tendency for capital outflow, which resulted in a further drop in the exchange rate of the national currency. Thus, the introduction of a mandatory sale, the purpose of which was to replenish the foreign exchange reserves of the National Bank of Ukraine with a significant difference between the official and real US dollar exchange rates, created the effect of slowing down exports and reducing the inflow of dollars to Ukraine.

New requirements for the purchase of foreign exchange have significantly reduced the demand for foreign exchange. Thus, the registration of transactions with the tax inspectorate reduced the purchase of foreign currency through fictitious transactions, which were used to outflow capital abroad, and apparently constituted a significant part of the currency purchased on the exchange. The ban on prepayment purchases of foreign currency has reduced the total number of actual import contracts concluded. Such regulations created serious difficulties for importing enterprises, which in certain cases were forced to cease their import activities.

Thus, the measures carried out by the National Bank of Ukraine led to a decrease in the volume of not only exports, but also imports, in order to create the illusion of stabilization of the exchange rate near the upper border of the currency corridor. The losses from the introduction of such measures also consisted in the reduction of future tax payments to the budget from the reduced export-import activities of enterprises.

To reduce the demand for foreign exchange on the part of importers who are trying to benefit from early purchases of foreign currency to pay for import contracts, it was possible to use a less stringent measure, compared to a complete ban on prepayment, such as reducing the delivery time of goods for import, for example, to 30 days. , which was previously used during currency crises in other countries.

It should also be noted that a currency band is usually introduced in a situation when the exchange rate fluctuates around a certain mark. The purpose of the introduction of the currency band is to reduce the currency risks of market participants by narrowing the limits of exchange rate fluctuations. Moreover, with this behavior of the exchange rate, foreign exchange reserves are spent when there is resistance to the movement of the exchange rate to the upper border of the corridor and are acquired when there is resistance to the movement to the lower border.

The introduction of a corridor with a constant desire for the exchange rate to go beyond the upper limit is an inappropriate means that leads to the waste of foreign exchange reserves. In a crisis situation at the end of 1998 in Ukraine, a more appropriate measure, most likely, would be the introduction of a rate growth limit for the trading period, which was previously used at the UICE.

After the introduction of the exchange rate band, the official rate very quickly reached its upper limit and, due to a clear excess of demand over supply, the exchange rate band turned into an almost fixed exchange rate, with the ensuing consequences, such as:

The emergence of a black market for currencies;

The disappearance of the mechanism for determining the real price of the national currency, which undermines the basic principles of a market economy and makes the economy non-transparent;

Reduction of investments and financial assistance from foreign states;

Another negative consequence of the currency corridor is discrimination against commercial banks: the currency corridor gives banks close to the National Bank the opportunity to purchase currency on the stock exchange as a priority and allows them to gain additional benefits by reselling it at a higher rate. This situation also undermines healthy competition in the banking sector, creates a threat of bankruptcy for most of the remaining banks, due to the fact that bank customers want to be able to buy currency on the exchange in a normal and timely manner, switching to services in “close” banks. In addition, since the beginning of the crisis, banks were prohibited from having an open foreign exchange position, which reduces their financial stability and, with such a depreciation of the hryvnia, increases the foreign exchange risk for banks.

The lack of a developed forward currency market in Ukraine exacerbated the impact of the crisis on exporters. The positive effect of the forward market would be to separate the speculative demand for the currency, which arose due to the expectation of further appreciation of the exchange rate, from the demand for completed exports. Exporters could reduce the risk of losses in the event of a fall in the exchange rate by buying futures contracts for the purchase of foreign currency from the state or importers, and although in such a crisis this would not protect them at all from losses, to a certain extent it would reduce them, especially since on the forward market they can be insured and share currency risks between importers, exporters and the state.

At the moment, with the introduction of the new European currency "euro", Ukraine needs to consider the issue of further orienting the monetary policy towards the "euro". Subject to further integration with the European community, according to many economists, this will provide a good objective basis not only for calculating the exchange rate of the national currency, but also for Ukraine's successful entry into the European markets for goods and services. This is due to the fact that the tendencies of the European financial market are closer to the economic situation in Ukraine, as well as a large share of Ukraine's trade with European states in the total trade of Ukraine.

Currency crises similar to the monetary and financial crisis in Ukraine experienced many former socialist countries, however, their economies suffered from them to a lesser extent, thanks to the fact that the government was not afraid to go forward with radical reforms, economic liberalization, creation of a normal environment for entrepreneurship. realizing that success in combating the crisis lies primarily in ensuring the stable operation of enterprises during this period of time, and not limiting their work by all kinds of measures in order to create illusions of any economic stabilization, which subsequently bring greater damage than could have caused the crisis itself.

Taking in a situation of aggravation of the crisis a number of seemingly less significant measures and at the same time without delaying the adoption of serious political decisions, it is possible to achieve a greater effect by preserving the economic potential of enterprises and trust in the government than from serious measures that are saving the government at the moment , however, in the future they destroy the economic environment in the state.