Survey of the commercial real estate market by city. Commercial real estate market analysis
Traditionally, when talking about real estate, it is customary to divide it into two large sectors: commercial real estate and residential real estate. Residential real estate includes apartments (primary and secondary housing), private houses and cottages (townhouses). Commercial real estate includes office premises, warehouses, retail premises and hotel premises. Often, the behavior of prices in these markets does not coincide, due to the ratio of factors affecting prices in these market segments.
If the residential real estate market is mainly formed only by supply and demand, then in the sphere of the commercial real estate market, many more factors are added to this: the influence of inflation on the consumption of services, changes in government policy, the dependence of the owner companies on other companies.
General situation in the commercial real estate market
To better understand the commercial real estate market, you need to analyze the economic situation. During the first 8 months of 2008 throughout Russia, there has been a stable growth in the main indicators affecting the purchasing power of the population. It should be noted that the increase depends on the region: in large cities, the growth in the level of wages is slightly higher than among people living far from large settlements. In addition, inflation makes a significant contribution to the formation of prices in the commercial real estate market. Inflation by September 1, 2008 was 2% higher than in the same time period in 2007. One cannot but note the increase in GDP, which amounted to 5.53% in 2008, which is more than 8.3% on an annualized basis. Thanks to the increase in the basic parameters that contribute to purchasing power, there is an increase in retail turnover. This is a very important indicator for the commercial real estate market, since the lion's share of this market belongs to retailers. In addition, there is an increase in investment in Russian commercial real estate.
In the first half of the year, investments amounted to approximately $ 3.5 billion, which is almost a quarter more than last year for the same period. The main source of these investments is still foreign companies, which find the Russian market extremely attractive, mainly due to the lack of quality space.
Office rooms
According to the already established trend, office premises make up the majority of the commercial real estate market, and every year there is an increase in demand. In addition, according to market participants, the demand for the quality of offices is constantly growing. Offices in large business centers are in great demand. But unlike Western business centers, the price of office rent in Russia is not calculated according to special methods, but is set by the owners of business centers, who are guided mainly by average prices for similar areas. According to experts, in the first 8 months the volume of vacant office space was 7.2%, which in terms of square meters is about 0.6 million. When considering the history of office space, it is clearly seen that just two years ago, 1 employed resident of Moscow had no more than 1 square meter of office space, and today this figure has reached almost 2 square meters. In addition, by the end of this year, it is planned to commission another one million square meters of office space, and in 2009 - two more. It would seem that with such a number of premises, office rental prices should decrease, however, on average, the office rental price for the first 8 months of 2008 increased by an average of 15% (class A office rental prices increased by 19%, B class offices - by 10%). The main reason for such a rise in the price of Class A offices was the statement of the Moscow authorities about the ban on the construction of offices in the center. The rise in rental prices for Class B offices is still not so big, but nevertheless, unpleasant, because these offices account for almost 80% of office space in business centers in the capital. Obviously, most of the non-leased offices are in class B, and the rise in prices for renting offices of this class undoubtedly indicates the imminent stabilization of the market. The main reason for the construction of office space was high production. But in the recent past, these indicators began to decrease. So, for example, the increase in production in 2008 amounted to 5.4% in 7 months against 7.6% in the same time last year.
According to experts, the situation is not expected to change in the near future. Experts are also inclined to believe that if 10% of office premises are vacated, the Moscow market will stabilize. The expected time for this to happen is two years. However, if the observed trend in setting prices is not changed, then this period may be reduced to one year. As international experience shows, after exceeding 10%, rates begin to gradually decrease, and the yield from them becomes approximately 8-9%, which is quite comparable with. Summarizing what has been said, let us highlight the main trends of 2008 and make a forecast. The main trends in the first 8 months of 2008 were:
- Rising prices for office rent
- Excess demand over supply
- Creation of new districts for business centers
- Reconstruction of industrial zones for the construction of office buildings on their territory (for example, the Moscow non-ferrous metal processing plant)
- Development of building zones outside the Moscow Ring Road for Moscow
- Commissioning of new areas
- Continued growth in rental rates
- Large investments, both from Russian funds and from foreign funds.
Total supply of office space (square meters) and rental rates ($ / sq. Meter * year)
Commercial premises
Retail premises represent more and more attractive investment areas every year due to the increasing purchasing power mentioned above. In addition, an increasing proportion of the population prefers large shopping centers to small shops. The main reason for this is the ability to buy a large number of different goods at once in one place, high quality service and lower prices. In addition, now more and more large shopping centers provide entertainment services. The first centers of this type began to appear in Moscow in 1998 on the Moscow Ring Road. However, today the situation is somewhat different. The construction of such centers is limited by high prices for land in Moscow, which could not but arouse desire in the near Moscow region, thanks to low prices for land, one can receive income that is approximately equal to Moscow, and sometimes even exceeds it. At the moment, there are three main types of buildings: the intersection of the Moscow Ring Road with transit routes passing through the capital; roads passing through large cities of the Moscow region; remote from the Moscow Ring Road. If we analyze each type separately, then we can say that the first type is aimed mainly at buyers from Moscow, the second type is focused on buyers from large Moscow region cities, and its benefit lies in the low cost of land, low competition, ease of adjusting logistics in areas for companies from Moscow. Regarding the third type, according to experts, the most popular (and therefore profitable) will be regional shopping centers, the area of which ranges from 50 to 70 thousand square meters. The modern commercial real estate market dictates its own norms for trading cents. Shopping centers should be spacious enough, located in a convenient area, and have parking and ample parking. In addition, each center should be based on several elements from a number of basic types of stores: furniture, grocery, electronics stores, goods for children or for the home. In addition, the shopping center should have space for office rent, an entertainment area, and a food area. If we look at the statistics of the retail space market, we can see an increase in turnover. Thus, in the first half of 2008, 230 thousand square meters were put into use in Moscow, which is 20% more than in the same period in 2007. In addition, demand still exceeds supply, which is an important factor in the formation of prices for retail space. The vacancy rate is less than 1%, mainly due to the large number of retail companies, both Russian and foreign. According to experts, this is becoming the main reason for leasing retail space in high-quality shopping centers six months before their delivery. Based on the analysis, we can say that until the end of 2008, rental rates will continue to grow, new premises will continue to be commissioned, and demand will continue to exceed supply. Warehouses are the next analyzed object in the commercial real estate market.
The commercial real estate market has general trends for all of its segments. Thus, the warehouse market in many respects repeats the peculiarities of the office market. The main centers for the formation of this market are Moscow, Moscow region and St. Petersburg. Unlike most European countries, where the development of such a market takes place throughout the country, regions in Russia are reluctant to develop. A very important event that influenced the rental rate of warehouse premises took place last year, when it was announced that a large number of warehouse premises would be built. Deceiving the expectations of many, only half of the declared objects were commissioned. This was the reason for the increase in rental rates instead of the expected decrease. In addition, the cost of building high-quality warehouse space is also increasing, which is the reason for the increase in rental rates. In general, the trends that emerged back in 2007 remain relevant to this day. It should also be noted that the attractiveness of regional markets is growing every day, but the Moscow market remains the fastest growing and dynamically developing, followed by the St. Petersburg market. Analyzing the current situation on the market, it can be stated that demand still exceeds supply, and the main objects of demand are warehouse blocks with areas from 5 to 10 thousand square meters. To date, the vacant area is no more than 2% of the total warehouse area. Summing up, we can say that in the near future the market expects an increase in rental rates, a slowdown in construction in Moscow, the Moscow Region and St. Petersburg, an increase in demand, a decrease in supply, and the development of warehouse markets in the regions.
Forecasts
Of course, it is impossible to predict with 100% certainty what will happen in the commercial real estate market. However, there is an opinion among experts that the market will soon stagnate. Among the reasons for such thoughts were the statements of a number of large retailers (retailers) about the sale of their commercial real estate. One of the reasons cited by retailers was the reduction in consumption of products by the population due to the high level of inflation. In addition, it should be noted that retail companies in Russia are highly overvalued compared to Western ones. In general, there will be an increase in prices and rental rates in each segment of the commercial real estate market, the inflow of Western capital will also support upward price trends. Many companies will try to move to regional markets in order to gain high positions in it. The carried out shows that it is not worth expecting sharp changes in the market so far. Research courtesy
DOMETRA portal
Analysis of the commercial real estate market of the city of Moscow at the end of the first half of 2017
This market analysis was prepared on the basis of information published in the public domain on the sites: https://www.cian.ru/, http://realty.dmir.ru/, https://rosreestr.ru/, etc.
According to Rosreestr (https://rosreestr.ru/), in the first half of 2017, about 600 contracts for the purchase and sale of commercial real estate were registered in Moscow. The most expensive transaction was registered in March 2017: non-residential premises with a total area of 13,404.6 m2 were sold in the Danilovsky District of the Southern Administrative District of Moscow, the transaction amount was 1,700,000,000 rubles / 126,822.14 rubles per square meter. The minimum amount of the registered transaction was recorded in February 2017 and amounted to 275,000 rubles / 8,487.65 rubles per square meter: a non-residential building with a total area of 32.4 m² was sold in the Veshnyaki district of the Eastern Administrative District of Moscow.
Analysis of the commercial real estate market in the city of Moscow suggests that there is no shortage of supply of commercial properties in the capital: the entire spectrum of commercial real estate of various classes and purposes is represented on the market. At the end of the first half of 2017, more than 50,000 office, retail, industrial and warehouse real estate objects were offered for sale in the city.
Office properties are offered for sale most of all - 72%, followed by retail real estate - 21%, followed by industrial and warehouse real estate - 7%.
In terms of the number of proposals, the Central Administrative District (CAO) is in the lead, the Southern and Northern Administrative Districts (Southern Administrative District and the Northern Administrative District) are in second place, the Western, South-Western and North-Eastern Administrative Districts (JSC, South-Western Administrative District and North-Eastern Administrative District) are in third place, followed by Eastern and the South-Eastern Administrative Districts (VAO and YuVAO), the North-Western Administrative District (SZAO), the Novomoskovsk Administrative District (NAO), the last place was shared by the Zelenogradsk and Troitsk Administrative Districts (ZELAO and TAO).
The distribution of the aggregate supply for the sale of commercial real estate in the city of Moscow by type of real estate, at the end of the first half of 2017, is as follows:
Figure 1. Distribution of the aggregate supply for the sale of commercial real estate in Moscow by type of real estate
Most of all office properties are offered for sale - 49%, retail real estate is in second place - 48%, followed by industrial and warehouse real estate - 3%.
The distribution of the aggregate supply for the lease of commercial real estate in the city of Moscow by type of real estate, at the end of the first half of 2017, is as follows:
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Figure 2. Distribution of the aggregate supply for lease of commercial real estate in Moscow by type of real estate
The vast majority of commercial properties offered for rent are office real estate - 77%, followed by retail real estate - 15%, followed by industrial and warehouse real estate - 8%.
In terms of the number of proposals, the Central Administrative District (CAO) is in the lead, the Southern Administrative District (YuAO) is in second place, the Northern and North-Eastern Administrative Districts (CAO and SVAO) are in third place, followed by the South-Eastern, Western, Eastern and Yugo- Western administrative districts (YuVAO, ZAO, VAO and YuZAO), North-Western administrative district (SZAO), Novomoskovsk administrative district (NAO), the last place was shared by Zelenogradsky and Troitsk administrative districts (ZELAO and TAO).
To improve the quality of the analytical base and the quality of the analysis of the commercial real estate market, the city of Moscow was divided into 24 zones. The division was based on major transport arteries of the city, such as: Garden Ring, Third Transport Ring, Prospekt Mira, Kutuzovsky Prospect, Pavlovskaya Street, Nikoloyamskaya Street, Moscow Ring Road and Moscow Small Ring (highway A107, "first concrete").
The highest average cost of 1 m² of office real estate within the boundaries of "old Moscow" was recorded in the Central Administrative District (inside the UK) - 394,784 rubles, the lowest in ZelAO - 91,326 rubles. The highest average rate for 1 m² of office real estate offered for rent was recorded on the section from Prospekt Mira to Kutuzovskiy prospect (from SK to TTK) and amounted to 24,191 rubles per year, the lowest in the North-Eastern Administrative District (outside the Moscow Ring Road) - 10,460 rubles per year ...
The highest average cost of 1 m² of retail real estate within the boundaries of "old Moscow" was recorded in the Central Administrative District (inside the UK) - 655,000 rubles, the lowest in the CAO (outside the Moscow Ring Road) - 91,095 rubles. The highest average rate for 1 m² of retail real estate offered for rent was recorded on the section from Nikoloyamskaya Street to Prospekt Mira (from SK to TTK) and amounted to 57,239 rubles per year, the lowest in the North-Eastern Administrative District (outside the Moscow Ring Road) - 15,600 rubles per year ...
The highest average cost of 1 m² of industrial and warehouse real estate within the boundaries of "old Moscow" was recorded in the South-Western Administrative District (from the Third Transport Ring to the Moscow Ring Road) - 145 051 rubles, the lowest in the Eastern Administrative District (outside the Moscow Ring Road) - 28 036 rubles. The highest average rate for 1 m² of industrial and warehouse real estate offered for rent was recorded in the Central Administrative District (inside the UK) and amounted to 14,223 rubles per year, the lowest in the CAO (outside the Moscow Ring Road) - 4,140 rubles per year.
The average cost of 1 m² of commercial real estate in the city of Moscow in all zones, at the end of the first half of 2017, are presented in the table below:
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Table 1. Average cost of 1 m2 of commercial real estate in Moscow at the end of the first half of 2017
The minimum (min) and maximum (max) cost of 1 m2 of commercial real estate in the city of Moscow in all zones, at the end of the first half of 2017, are presented in the table below:
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Table 2. Minimum (min) and maximum (max) the cost of 1 m2 of commercial real estate in the city of Moscow at the end of the first half of 2017
* SK - Garden Ring; TTK - Third Transport Ring; MKAD - Moscow ring road; MMK (A107) - Moscow Small Ring (highway A107).
The average cost of 1 m² of commercial real estate in Moscow by class of objects (classes A and B), at the end of the first half of 2017, are presented in the table below:
Table 3. Average cost of 1 m² of commercial real estate in the city of Moscow by class of objects at the end of the first half of 2017
* SK - Garden Ring; TTK - Third Transport Ring; MKAD - Moscow ring road; MMK (A107) - Moscow Small Ring (highway A107).
The minimum cost of 1 m² within the boundaries of "old Moscow" in the office real estate segment was recorded in the SEAD (from the Third Transport Ring to the Moscow Ring Road) and amounted to 36,344 rubles, the maximum cost was recorded in the Central Administrative District (within the UK) and amounted to 2,105,263 rubles. The minimum rate for 1 m² of office real estate offered for rent was fixed in two zones at once: on the section from Pavlovskaya Street to Nikoloyamskaya Street (from SK to TTK) and in SEAD (from TTK to MKAD), and amounted to 1,000 rubles per year ... The maximum rental rate for 1 m² was recorded on the section from Nikoloyamskaya Street to Prospekt Mira (from SK to TTK) and amounted to 144,000 rubles per year.
The minimum cost of 1 m² within the boundaries of "old Moscow" in the segment of retail real estate was recorded in the Eastern Administrative District (outside the Moscow Ring Road) and amounted to 33,058 rubles, the maximum cost was recorded on the section from Nikoloyamskaya Street to Prospekt Mira (from SK to TTK) and amounted to 3,206 349 rubles. The minimum rate for 1 m² of retail real estate offered for rent was fixed in the SEAD (outside the Moscow Ring Road) and amounted to 1,164 rubles per year. The maximum rental rate for 1 m² was recorded on the section from Pavlovskaya Street to Nikoloyamskaya Street (from SK to TTK) and amounted to 405,000 rubles per year.
The minimum cost of 1 m² within the boundaries of "old Moscow" in the segment of industrial and warehouse real estate was recorded in the SEAD (from the Third Transport Ring to the Moscow Ring Road) and amounted to 8 165 rubles, the maximum cost was recorded in the CJSC (from the Third Transport Ring to the Moscow Ring Road) and amounted to 145 985 rubles. The minimum and maximum rates for 1 m² of industrial and warehouse real estate offered for rent were recorded in the SEAD (outside the Moscow Ring Road) and amounted to 970 and 42,840 rubles per year, respectively.
Moscow is a major cultural center of Europe and the world; more than a third of the country's historical sites are concentrated in the city, many of which are included in the UNESCO World Heritage List. The thousand-year history of Moscow is preserved in its architecture - the city has cultural heritage sites with federal, regional and identified conservation status, many of which are offered for sale as commercial real estate.
The distribution of the aggregate supply for the sale / lease of commercial cultural heritage objects of the city of Moscow by protection status, at the end of the first half of 2017, is as follows:
Figure 3. Distribution of the aggregate supply for the sale / lease of commercial cultural heritage objects in Moscow by protection status
Most of the identified cultural heritage sites are offered for sale - 45%, regional cultural heritage sites are in second place - 38%, followed by federal cultural heritage sites - 17%.
Most of the commercial properties offered for rent are regional cultural heritage sites - 45%, in second place are identified cultural heritage sites - 40%, followed by federal cultural heritage sites - 15%.
Most of the objects of cultural heritage proposed for sale are located within the Third Ring Road, therefore, in order to improve the quality of the analytical base and the quality of the analysis of the market for commercial cultural heritage objects, the city of Moscow was divided into 2 zones: the Central Administrative District (inside the UK) and the section between the UK and the Third Transport Ring ... Outside the Third Ring Road, no proposals for the sale of commercial cultural heritage sites were found.
Average, minimum (min) and maximum (max) cost of 1 m² of commercial cultural heritage objects of the city of Moscow, at the end of the first half of 2017, are presented in the table below:
Table 4. Average, minimum (min) and maximum (max) cost of 1 m² of commercial cultural heritage objects of the city of Moscow at the end of the first half of 2017
The average cost of 1 m² of commercial cultural heritage objects of the city of Moscow in terms of protection status, at the end of the first half of 2017, are presented in the table below:
Table 5. Average cost of 1 m² of commercial cultural heritage objects of the city of Moscow by protection status at the end of the first half of 2017
* SK - Garden Ring; TTK - Third Ring Road.
The highest average cost of 1 m² of commercial cultural heritage objects was recorded in the Central Administrative District (inside the UK) - 458,060 rubles for a federal cultural heritage site, the lowest in the area between the UK and the Third Transport Ring - 248,472 rubles for a regional cultural heritage site. The highest average rate for 1 m² of commercial cultural heritage objects offered for rent was recorded in the Central Administrative District (inside the UK) and amounted to 30,927 rubles per year for a federal cultural heritage site, the lowest on the section between the UK and the Third Transport Ring - 16,200 rubles per year for a federal cultural heritage site.
Such an analysis is a study of a large-scale market that includes retail space, warehouses, hotels, and commercially used housing stock.
It can be general, covering the entire market, and private, specialized in a specific area of real estate..
It is necessary for everyone who actively trades in the market.
The difference between analysis and evaluation is that the analysis gives a more complete picture of the market, it allows, based on statistics and past experience, to determine price trends for several months and years.
A beginner investor must be interested in the theory and practice of market analysis to invest your money with good returns without losing it during the next cyclical downturn. For those who want to get rid of real estate in their property, the analysis will tell you the best time to sell the property.
Commercial real estate market: analysis
To assess the situation and possible trends in the commercial real estate market, you need to refer to general macroeconomic indicators.
The analysis itself is divided into several important sectors.:
- analysis of the sale and purchase sector;
- analysis of the rental market;
- analysis of real estate investments;
- research of the state of affairs in different classes of commercial real estate.
The main indicator in the general analysis is investment activity in your region... Even in times of general economic instability or stagnation, there are safe zones for investors, where they can, if not increase, then at least save their money.
For example, the Moscow real estate market suffers less than others during crises.
The second is the general activity of the business and the purchasing power of the population.
This is especially evident when analyzing retail space.
A common picture during the crisis is half-empty halls in shopping centers with many rental announcements.
It testifies to the very poor state of affairs in the sector of this particular city.
ATTENTION. At the same time, the volume of construction of the same shopping centers cannot be interpreted as an unambiguous indicator of economic cycles.
It happens that the developer commissions the area in spite of the midst of the crisis, because the construction estimates simply do not take into account the economic situation.
The fact that the commercial real estate market is in decline is evidenced by the behavior of the owners of the premises. In a crisis, they are forced to fight for the tenant, inventing various indulgences for him in the form of discounts or repairs at their own expense.
At such moments, the business feels most mobile. But the owners suffer and are forced to get rid of the assets.
In such times, it is best to take ownership of the area for the future in 5-6 years, or for the development of your own business. The question of whether it is more profitable to rent commercial real estate, or to buy, must be decided according to the situation.
Renting always gives the company room to maneuver, allowing it to move to less expensive areas.
Property will tie the firm to one location, but can become a profitable asset in the future.
Not only large shopping centers own commercial properties.
Large firms and banks in years of economic growth buy them for their own needs, and get rid of them in times of crisis. Try to find such lots on the market, this is a great chance to get a premise in the best location for the usual price.
Office rooms
When analyzing office space, it is important to pay attention to the class of real estate... When “A” class offices are on the rise, it means that now is not the time for private investors with small capital. As the analysis of commercial real estate has shown, the market has exploded and is dominated by large players, including banks and investment funds.
For owners of large B and C class premises, this means that it is high time to enter into long-term lease contracts or sell premises to large corporations at a good price. These office classes have their advantages, despite the fact that they indicate poor quality finishes and inaccessibility to public transport.
Banks are especially interested if they have surplus funds in premises of this class... But for banks, office real estate of this class is just an asset that will be sold to the market in the first place in the event of a crisis.
The volume of premises is an important indicator in any real estate sector. The volume of premises in a particular class and the weighted average price in the market for this class should become the main tools for investing in office premises.
Commercial premises
The weighted average price in the retail space market may sink even from the construction of a large shopping center in this or a neighboring area.
Unlike office properties, trading is associated with a lot of risks..
Retail is a business area in which short-term contracts are most common. And during the crisis, small and medium-sized retail spaces are often empty.
Keep a close eye on which shopping malls and market squares are being built in the area of your interest.
Such construction is guaranteed to shake prices. This is especially difficult when, during a collapse in the retail real estate market, developers lease new areas.
The situation is smoothed out by the fact that such a drop in weighted average prices for retail space is localized by district. In new residential areas and business districts, it is barely noticeable, while in areas close to the center, where class “B” real estate and below are located, the cheapening of premises and a sharp increase in leased space is noticeable to everyone at once.
Warehouses
Almost the same rules apply to warehouses as to retail space. This is also a risky area. But it is in this area that the emphasis in the analysis is often placed on the technical component of warehouse buildings. Storage space must be well organized.
A modern warehouse is a small mechanized enterprise, so the size and organization of the space inside the building should not be an obstacle for warehouse equipment.
Investments in warehouses are much less common than in office or retail real estate.
They are relevant mainly in areas of large cargo transportation, or in industrialized areas, where business is constantly looking for such premises.
What to expect in the near future?
The commercial real estate market in Russia has just experienced a significant downturn. In large cities, rental rates fell by an average of 10-20%. Firms began to dump their real estate assets en masse, which led to an increase in supply. Business is still too weak to overcome the negative trend.
Briefly speaking about the forecast for commercial real estate, it can be argued that it is too early to say that the crisis is over for the market. Real estate has not started to massively rise in price, and in most cities it periodically still falls, then grows in price by several percent.
ATTENTION. According to commercial real estate analysts, most likely we will see positive changes and a return of prices to pre-crisis levels 1-1.5 years after the start of economic growth in Russia.
Investments
With an average capital, it is best to invest in small category "C" offices.
Now they are in demand among tenants, even if they are located much far from the center.
If we talk about retail space, it is best, if possible, to buy real estate in the center of megalopolises..
Analysis of rental rates in the dealer sector
The rental rate depends on the current supply volume and the general macroeconomic environment... As the analysis of commercial real estate leases has shown, in the conditions of stagnation and recession, supply is at its peak, landlords compete for each tenant and keep prices low.
But, as the analysis of commercial real estate rental rates has shown, as soon as capital returns to the sector and business activity grows, prices will return to the pre-crisis level and exceed it by 20-30%.
Let's summarize. Real estate is highly responsive to macroeconomic cycles. During the crisis, the supply of rent and purchase and sale increases. The most sustainable investments during a recession are mid-range offices and small-scale sales areas.
RRG conducted a study of the commercial real estate market in the capital region in the third quarter of 2017. Information for the study was obtained from more than 30 specialized and thematic sources dedicated to the commercial real estate market in Moscow. Sources include electronic real estate databases, print and electronic media, real estate agencies and consulting companies.
As objects for the study of the market for the sale of commercial real estate were selected office, industrial and warehouse premises (PSP) and free commercial premises (PSN) worth 36 million rubles, as well as retail premises worth 26 million rubles or more, or premises with a total area of at least 100 sq. m.
As objects for the study of the commercial real estate lease market, objects offered in open sources were selected - retail, office, industrial and warehouse premises (PSP) with a total area of at least 50 sq. m.
The volume of offers of real estate objects in both segments - sale and lease - decreased.
Sale
Market as a whole
Supply volume
In 3 sq. In 2017, the volume of supply decreased by 1% in terms of quantity and by 4% in terms of total area. For the year, compared to 3 sq. 2016, the volume of supply decreased by 5% in terms of quantity and decreased by 28% in terms of total area.
In total, 2,164 objects with a total area of 2,960 thousand square meters were put up for sale in the 3rd quarter.
Price indicators
Weighted average price in 3 sq. 2017 decreased by 1% and amounted to 176,936 rubles / sq. M. Taking into account the fact that the dollar exchange rate for the quarter increased by 3% and decreased by 9% over the year, the price in dollar equivalent for the quarter increased by 2%, and over the year decreased by 19% and amounted to $ 2,998 / sq. M. The total value of commercial real estate objects for the quarter decreased by 5%, and for the year - by 35% and amounted to 523 billion rubles.
The decline in prices both in rubles and in dollars for the year indicates a decrease in demand. At the same time, the decrease in the volume of supply of vacant space, their departure from the market gives hope that a new equilibrium point in the market will soon be found.
| All segments | number | Total cost, million rubles | Total area, thousand sq. M | Average area, thousand sq. M | |
| value | 2 164 | 523 699 | 2 960 | 1,37 | 176 936 |
| to Q2 2017 | − 1% | − 5% | − 4% | − 3% | − 1% |
| to the III quarter. 2016 | − 5% | − 35% | − 28% | − 24% | − 10% |
Supply volume
The volume of supply for the total area in the 3rd quarter compared to the second for retail real estate decreased by 14%, for office - by 5%, for production and warehouse premises - by 5%, and for free premises - increased by 14%.
The volume of supply for the total area for the year compared to 3 sq. In 2016, retail real estate decreased by 29%, office real estate - by 35%, industrial and warehouse real estate - increased by 17%, and free premises decreased by 35%.
There have been changes in the structure of the segments by area. The share of office properties was 59%. This is followed by free-use premises (21%), industrial and warehouse (13%) and retail premises (7%).
Price indicators
For the 3rd quarter of 2017, the price for retail real estate increased by 2% to 245,510 rubles / sq. M, for office real estate decreased by 4% and amounted to 202,521 rubles / sq. M, for industrial and warehouse real estate increased by 4% and amounted to 63,439 rubles / sq. M, and for free premises - by 5% to 210,068 rubles / sq. M.
Compared to Q3 2016, the weighted average price decreased by 9% for retail, 4% for office, 17% for industrial and warehouse real estate, and increased by 1% for free premises.
The only segment where prices decreased in Q3 2017 was office real estate, however, the growth in prices in other segments was insignificant, and over the year prices decreased in all segments except for industrial and warehouse premises.
| Trade | number | Total cost, million rubles | Total area, thousand sq. M | Average area, thousand sq. M | Weighted average price, RUB / sq.m |
| value | 348 | 45 738 | 186 | 0,54 | 245 510 |
| to Q2 2017 | − 15% | − 12% | − 14% | + 1% | + 2% |
| to the III quarter. 2016 | − 7% | − 35% | − 29% | − 23% | − 9% |
| Office | number | Total cost, million rubles | Total area, thousand sq. M | Average area, thousand sq. M | Weighted average price, RUB / sq.m |
| value | 1 341 | 347 182 | 1 714 | 1,28 | 202 521 |
| to Q2 2017 | + 4% | − 9% | − 5% | − 9% | − 4% |
| to the III quarter. 2016 | − 3% | − 38% | − 35% | − 33% | − 4% |
| PSP | number | Total cost, million rubles | Total area, thousand sq. M | Average area, thousand sq. M | Weighted average price, RUB / sq.m |
| Value | 160 | 39 688 | 626 | 3,91 | 63 439 |
| to Q2 2017 | − 18% | − 2% | − 5% | + 16% | + 4% |
| to the III quarter. 2016 | − 15% | − 3% | + 17% | + 38% | − 17% |
| PSN | number | Total cost, million rubles | Total area, thousand sq. M | Average area, thousand sq. M | Weighted average price, RUB / sq.m |
| value | 315 | 91 091 | 434 | 1,38 | 210 068 |
| to Q2 2017 | + 11% | + 20% | + 14% | + 2% | + 5% |
| to the III quarter. 2016 | − 4% | − 35% | − 35% | − 32% | + 1% |
Retail property
Supply volume
In the 3rd quarter, 348 retail objects with a total area of 186 thousand square meters were exhibited, of which 32 objects were inside the Garden Ring and 316 objects were outside it.
During the quarter, the volume of supply of retail facilities in the center decreased by 9% in terms of quantity, and did not change in terms of total area. The volume of supply of retail objects outside the center in terms of quantity decreased by 16% and by 15% in terms of the total area.
Price indicators
The weighted average price for retail properties in the center for the 3rd quarter of 2017 decreased by 16% and amounted to 824,912 rubles / sq.m, which was due to the end of the exhibition in the 2nd quarter of a large and cheap property on Khoromny Lane. (2,586 sq. M., 2,200,000 rubles / sq. M.), And the entry into the market of cheap objects on Raushskaya emb. (398 sq.m, 282,518 rubles / sq.m), Tolmachevsky per. (680 sq. M., 262,500 rubles / sq. M.), Kazarmenny per. (720 sq. M., 305,556 rubles / sq. M.).
The weighted average price for retail premises outside the center increased by 4% to RUB 219,283 / sq. M. The price increase was associated with the entry into the market in the 3rd quarter of an expensive retail facility on Ryazansky Prospect (9,747 sq. M., 359,064 rubles / sq. M.).
Despite the fact that prices for premises in the center have decreased over the quarter, and outside, on the contrary, have increased, over the year the situation is the opposite, therefore, in the medium term, we can say that the demand for premises in the center is higher, but until recently such premises were somewhat overrated.
| Trade | number | Total cost, million rubles | Total area, thousand sq. M | Average area, thousand sq. M | Weighted average price, RUB / sq.m |
| value | 348 | 45 738 | 186 | 0,54 | 245 510 |
| to Q2 2017 | − 15% | − 12% | − 14% | + 1% | + 2% |
| to the III quarter. 2016 | − 7% | − 35% | − 29% | − 23% | − 9% |
| Trading within the UK | number | Total cost, million rubles | Total area, thousand sq. M | Average area, thousand sq. M | Weighted average price, RUB / sq.m |
| value | 32 | 6 655 | 8 | 0,25 | 824 912 |
| to Q2 2017 | − 9% | − 16% | 0% | + 9% | − 16% |
| to the III quarter. 2016 | − 22% | − 41% | − 48% | − 33% | + 14% |
| Trade outside the UK | number | Total cost, million rubles | Total area, thousand sq. M | Average area, thousand sq. M | Weighted average price, RUB / sq.m |
| value | 316 | 39 083 | 178 | 0,56 | 219 283 |
| to Q2 2017 | − 16% | − 12% | − 15% | + 1% | + 4% |
| to the III quarter. 2016 | − 5% | − 34% | − 27% | − 24% | − 9% |
Street-retail
Supply volume
In Q3 2017, 107 street-retail objects with a total area of 29 thousand square meters were put up for sale, of which 10 objects are inside the Garden Ring and 97 objects are outside it.
The volume of supply for retail facilities in the center decreased by 9% in terms of quantity, and by 10% in the total area. The volume of supply for retail facilities outside the center in terms of quantity decreased by 14%, and in terms of total area - by 20%.
Price indicators
The weighted average price for street-retail objects in the center increased by 8% to RUB 960,183 / sq. M, while the price for old objects decreased by 10%. The rise in prices was due to the entry into the market of an expensive property at M. Kozikhinsky Lane. (100 sq. M., 1,459,550 rubles / sq. M.).
Outside the center, the weighted average price increased by 2% and amounted to 275,718 rubles / sq.m, which was due to a 5% increase in prices for objects that have been exhibited for a long time.
| Street-retail | number | Total cost, million rubles | Total area, thousand m2 | Average area, thousand m2 | |
| value | 107 | 9 934 | 29 | 0,27 | 343 396 |
| to Q2 2017 | − 14% | − 15% | − 19% | − 6% | + 5% |
| to the III quarter. 2016 | + 1% | − 22% | − 2% | − 3% | − 21% |
| Street-retail inside the UK | number | Total cost, million rubles | Total area, thousand m2 | Average area, thousand m2 | Weighted average price, RUB / m2 |
| value | 10 | 2 747 | 3 | 0,29 | 960 183 |
| to Q2 2017 | − 9% | − 3% | − 10% | − 1% | + 8% |
| to the III quarter. 2016 | − 41% | − 42% | − 38% | + 6% | − 7% |
| Street-retail outside the UK | number | Total cost, million rubles | Total area, thousand m2 | Average area, thousand m2 | Weighted average price, RUB / m2 |
| value | 97 | 7 188 | 26 | 0,27 | 275 718 |
| to Q2 2017 | − 14% | − 18% | − 20% | − 6% | + 2% |
| to the III quarter. 2016 | + 9% | − 10% | + 5% | − 4% | − 15% |
Rent
Market as a whole
Supply volume
The volume of supply on the rental market is 3 sq. 2017 decreased by 7% in terms of quantity and 10% in terms of total area. In general, over 4 quarters, the volume of supply increased by 19% in terms of quantity, and in terms of total area - by 3%.
In total, 4,452 objects with a total area of 2,260 thousand sq. M were exhibited in the 3rd quarter.
Price indicators
The average rate both for the quarter and for the last 4 quarters decreased by 3% and amounted to 17,969 rubles / sq.m / year. Taking into account the fact that the dollar exchange rate for the third quarter increased by 3%, the price in dollar terms did not change for the quarter and amounted to 304 $ / sq.m / year. Annual rent for the quarter decreased by 12% and amounted to 32.4 billion rubles.
The decrease in the average rental rate in both dollars and rubles for the year indicates that negative factors still prevail on the real estate market.
| All segments | number | Total GAP, million rubles | Total area, thousand sq. M | Average area, thousand sq. M | |
| value | 4 452 | 32 416 | 2 260 | 0,51 | 17 969 |
| to Q2 2017 | − 7% | − 13% | − 10% | − 3% | − 3% |
| to the III quarter. 2016 | + 19% | − 0% | + 3% | − 13% | − 3% |
Comparative analysis by segment
Supply volume
The volume of supply for the total area for the 3rd quarter of 2017 in relation to the second quarter decreased by 19% in retail, by 11% in office and by 4% in industrial and warehouse real estate.
The volume of supply for the total area for the year of retail real estate decreased by 5%, for office - by 4%, and industrial and warehouse real estate - increased by 17%.
Office premises remain the leader in supply in terms of total area, with a 50% share. This is followed by production and storage (38%) and retail premises (12%).
Price indicators
The average rental rate for the 3rd quarter of 2017 for retail real estate decreased by 2% and amounted to 30,808 rubles / sq.m / year, for office real estate - also decreased by 2% to 17,327 rubles / sq.m / year, and for production and warehouse - increased by 2% and amounted to 6,656 rubles / sq.m / year.
Compared to the 3rd quarter of 2016, the change in the rental rate was -3% for retail, + 1% for office, and for industrial and warehouse real estate, the rate did not change.
The change in rates both for the quarter and for the year continues to remain insignificant, which is typical for the stage of market stagnation.
| Trade | number | Total GAP, million rubles | Total area, thousand sq. M | Average area, thousand sq. M | Average rate, rubles / sq.m / year |
| value | 922 | 6 660 | 254 | 0,28 | 30 808 |
| to Q2 2017 | − 10% | − 17% | − 19% | − 10% | − 2% |
| to the III quarter. 2016 | + 11% | − 3% | − 5% | − 14% | − 3% |
| Office | number | Total GAP, million rubles | Total area, thousand sq. M | Average area, thousand sq. M | Average rate, rubles / sq.m / year |
| value | 2 633 | 19 984 | 1 090 | 0,41 | 17 327 |
| to Q2 2017 | − 7% | − 14% | − 11% | − 4% | − 2% |
| to the III quarter. 2016 | + 18% | − 3% | − 4% | − 19% | + 1% |
| PSP | number | Total GAP, million rubles | Total area, thousand sq. M | Average area, thousand sq. M | Average rate, rubles / sq.m / year |
| Value | 897 | 5 772 | 916 | 1,02 | 6 656 |
| to Q2 2017 | − 2% | − 3% | − 4% | − 3% | + 2% |
| to the III quarter. 2016 | + 31% | + 15% | + 17% | − 11% | 0% |
Retail property
Supply volume
The volume of supply of retail real estate in Q3 decreased by 10% in terms of quantity, and in terms of total area decreased by 19%. The volume of supply for the year increased by 11% in terms of quantity, and decreased by 5% in terms of the total area.
In total, 922 objects with an area of 254 thousand square meters were exhibited in the 3rd quarter, of which 51 objects were in the center and 871 premises were outside it.
The volume of supply for the total area in Q3 decreased by 18% in the center and by 19% outside it.
Price indicators
The average rental rate for retail properties within the Garden Ring in 3 sq. 2017 decreased by 1% and amounted to 58,889 rubles / sq.m / year.
The average rental rate for retail facilities outside the Garden Ring did not change and amounted to RUB 29,164 / sq. M / year.
The insignificance of changes in rates for retail facilities indicates stagnation in the market in the context of a decrease in the volume of supply.
| Trading within the UK | number | Total GAP, million rubles | Total area, thousand sq. M | Average area, thousand sq. M | Average rate, rubles / sq.m / year |
| value | 51 | 658 | 13 | 0,26 | 58 889 |
| to Q2 2017 | − 30% | − 24% | − 18% | + 17% | − 1% |
| to the III quarter. 2016 | − 39% | − 29% | − 26% | + 22% | − 3% |
| Trade outside the UK | number | Total GAP, million rubles | Total area, thousand sq. M | Average area, thousand sq. M | Average rate, rubles / sq.m / year |
| value | 871 | 6 001 | 241 | 0,28 | 29 164 |
| to Q2 2017 | − 9% | − 17% | − 19% | − 11% | 0% |
| to the III quarter. 2016 | + 16% | + 1% | − 3% | − 17% | + 2% |
Street-retail
Supply volume
The volume of supply of objects of the street-retail format in Q3 2017 decreased by 10% in terms of quantity and by 19% in terms of total area. Over the year, the volume of supply increased by 13% in terms of quantity, and by 4% in terms of total area. In total, 353 objects with an area of 76 thousand square meters were exhibited in the 3rd quarter, of which 17 objects were offered in the center and 336 objects outside it.
| Street-retail inside the UK | number | Total GAP, million rubles | Total area, thousand m2 | Average area, thousand m2 | Average rate, rubles / sq.m / year |
| value | 17 | 255 | 5 | 0,29 | 67 263 |
| to Q2 2017 | − 32% | − 28% | − 6% | + 38% | − 13% |
| to the III quarter. 2016 | − 51% | − 38% | − 29% | + 47% | − 3% |
| Street-retail outside the UK | number | Total GAP, million rubles | Total area, thousand m2 | Average area, thousand m2 | Average rate, rubles / sq.m / year |
| value | 336 | 2 097 | 71 | 0,21 | 33 343 |
| to Q2 2017 | − 9% | − 19% | − 20% | − 12% | − 2% |
| to the III quarter. 2016 | + 21% | + 9% | + 8% | − 11% | − 3% |
In January 2019, 1,972 commercial real estate objects with a total area of 1,220 thousand square meters were offered for rent. m. The volume of supply for the month in terms of quantity decreased by 34%, and in terms of total area - by 26%. The average rental rate for the month decreased by 2% and from ...
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