If the recipients of the loan are governments. The problem of credit debt as a factor in the instability of the modern world economy

Problem external debt and volatility in international credit. The problem of servicing the public external debt is one of the key factors of macroeconomic stability in the country. The aim of the work is to study the system of international lending to solve the problem of external debt to show the problems of external debt of Russia and foreign countries, their dependence on this debt and the prospects for the development of the situation. To achieve this goal, the following tasks are set in the work: to give a concept and reveal the essence of international ...

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COURSE WORK

in the discipline "World Economy"

on the topic:

"THE PROBLEM OF LOAN DEBT AS A FACTOR OF INSTABILITY OF THE MODERN WORLD ECONOMY"

INTRODUCTION

IN last years the external debt problem has become global. Practically all countries of the world, carrying out economic transformations, resort to external sources of financing.

The problem of servicing the public external debt is one of the key factors of macroeconomic stability in the country. The nature of the behavior of all segments of the domestic financial market will depend on the nature of the solution to the debt problem.

One of the manifestations of the globalization process that has swept the whole world today is the intensification of economic cooperation between countries with developed and economies in transition in order to involve the latter in the world economic system. International credit is just an indicator of the close interaction of countries, as it occupies an important place in the economic turnover, the world economy, and then in the life of human society as a whole.

Thus, the economic events of recent years have led to the transition of public debt management issues to the category of primary ones, which indicates the relevance of the topic raised in our work. Moreover, it is safe to say that this topic will remain the most important subject for discussion in the near future.

At one time, such well-known politicians and economists as: W. Churchill, N. Brady, J. Soros, P. Lindert and others paid much attention to it.

Concerning Russian Federation, then the issues related to credit debt are also quite acute.

The aim of the work is to study the system of international lending, to solve the problem of external debt,show the problem of the external debt of Russia and foreign states, their dependence on this debt and the prospects for the development of the situation.To achieve this goal, the following tasks are set in the work:

• to give a concept and reveal the essence of international credit, external debt;
• consider the reasons for the development of debt crises;
• to determine the main directions of activity of the state and international financial institutions;
• find out what methods of solving the problem are available today;
• to consider the directions of development of credit policy in Russia.

Structures term paper determined by the nature and sequence of tasks to be solved. The work consists of an introduction, three chapters (7 paragraphs), a conclusion, a list of sources used, and a number of additions necessary for a visual understanding of the topic raised. The first chapter examines the theoretical foundations, the concept of international credit and external debt, their principles, forms. In the second chapter, the problem of the debt crisis is proposed for consideration, as well as the main directions for its prevention and regulation. In the third chapter, we will consider the main provisions of the credit policy of foreign states and Russia, compare a number of statistical data in order to better assess the situation in the world and the prospects for further development.

Key concepts touched upon in this work are: "international credit", "external debt", " payment balance"," Debt crisis (default) "," debt restructuring "," official, private debt ".

When writing the work, scientific literature, periodicals, textbooks on economic theory, as well as economic dictionaries were used. The volume of the course work is 38 pages.

1. THEORETICAL ASPECTS OF THE CONCEPT OF LOAN DEBT.

1. International credit: essence, basic principles and functions.

Currently, international credit as an economic category is widely represented in the economic literature, but at the same time there is a controversial character of the description of the essence and forms of this category, which can be represented by two main definitions:

International credit is the movement of loan capital in the field of international economic relations associated with the provision of foreign exchange and commodity resources on terms of repayment, maturity, security and interest payments.

International credit is a set of credit relations operating on international level, the direct participants of which may be international financial and credit institutions, the governments of the respective states and individual legal entities, including credit institutions. 1

The movement of capital between countries can be carried out both with the help of intermediaries and without their participation. Large national and transnational banks, international and regional monetary and financial organizations can act as an intermediary.

The subjects of international credit relations are the lender - the seller of loan capital - and the borrower - its buyer. The lender and borrower of an international loan are non-residents and operate in international capital markets.

The main subjects of international credit relations are the following institutions:

* international financial organizations - International Monetary Fund, Group The World Bank etc. (Mostly this is concessional lending if it fulfills certain conditions and meets the necessary criteria);

* national bodies of financial and credit regulation - central banks, ministries of finance and economy, treasury. (Loans are needed to conduct a national economic policy: reducing the budget deficit, maintaining the exchange rate, etc .; sometimes international credit relations have a political connotation, for example, with the support of one of the parties in the form of concessional lending);

* transnational financial and industrial groups invest in credit projects countries with the most favorable interest rates, as well as increase profits by placing or attracting funds in the world loan capital market;

* commercial banks, which by their nature are engaged in lending, enter international markets to realize financial opportunities or to temporarily solve problems with liquidity and solvency.

* non-bank financial institutions - savings associations, credit unions, Insurance companies, pension funds, investment companies and banks, financial brokers and dealers, financial companies.

* manufacturing sector. Credit resources, including international ones, are required by enterprises for expanded reproduction. The use of credit resources to pay off debts indicates the ineffective work of the enterprise. The real sector is self-sufficient and should use the services financial and credit system to increase capacity, not to maintain operation;

* small business, population, etc. - their participation in international credit relations is due not so much to the specifics of their activities, but rather to the attractiveness and nature of themselves credit instruments. 2

International credit relations and their subjects have no nationality and national interests. Their main motive, as a rule, is the receipt of the maximum possible profit, therefore, international credit relations are formed in the environment of the best profitable opportunities - in the international markets of loan capital. The purpose of an international loan is determined by the subject, therefore, along with profit, there can be political, humanitarian and other goals.

The emergence of international credit is associated with the development of domestic, national markets and the need to finance international trade. Today, credit relations cover all areas international economy... The emergence of international credit can be attributed to the XIV - XV centuries. in world trade, it received special development after the development of sea routes from Europe to the Near and Middle East, and later America and India. Further development of international credit is associated with the output of production beyond the national framework by its specialization and cooperation.

The role of credit in international trade increased during the scientific and technological revolution, one of the consequences of which was an increase in the supply of machines, machine tools, whole industrial complexes, i.e. investment goods, the production and purchase of which are associated with large capital investments of exporters and importers.

From here, we can see that credit turns into one of the most important factors on which competitiveness in the investment goods market depends.

The basis for the development of international credit is international integration, specialization of production, globalization of the world economy.

International credit participates in the circulation of capital at all its stages - from the acquisition of imported equipment or raw materials to the sale finished products in the global or domestic markets.

At the interstate level, international credit is primarily associated with the need to cover the negative balance of payments - settlements. The balance of payments is a systematic record of all monetary transactions carried out between residents of a given country and the outside world for a certain period (usually a year). The balance of payments consists of two main parts:

1. Current account, or current balance of payments;
2. Capital account and financial account (balance of capital flows). 3

The main difference between international and domestic credit is the separation of credit sources and credit facilities by state borders. There are three main sources of international credit:

Temporarily free part of the capital of corporations in cash;

Foreign exchange reserves of the state;

Private savings.

Credit relations are based on a certain methodological basis, one of the elements of which are the principles strictly observed in the practical organization of any operation on the loan capital market. 4

Principles of international credit:

1) repayment - expresses the need for the timely return of financial resources received from the lender after the borrower has completed their use. (This ensures the renewability of the bank's credit resources as necessary condition continuation of its statutory activities; if the funds received are not returned, then there is an irrevocable transfer of money capital, i.e. financing).

2) urgency - reflects the need to return it not at any time that is acceptable to the borrower, but at a precisely defined date fixed in the loan agreement or a document replacing it. (Violation is a sufficient reason for applying economic sanctions to the borrower in the form of an increase in the interest charged, and with a further delay (in our country - more than three months) - filing financial claims in court).

3) payment - expresses the need not only for a direct return by the borrower of the credit resources received from the bank, but also for payment of the right to temporary use them.

4) material security - reflects guarantees of its repayment, ensures the protection of the property interests of the lender in the event of a possible violation by the borrower of the obligations assumed and finds practical expression in such forms of lending as loans secured or secured by financial guarantees.

5) targeted nature - the definition of specific objects of the loan, its application, primarily in order to stimulate the export of the creditor country. (In the relevant section loan agreement the specific purpose of the loan being issued is established; Violation of this obligation may become the basis for early withdrawal of the loan or the introduction of a penalty (increased) loan interest).

6) the principle of a differentiated approach of the lender and the borrower when choosing counterparties - just as the lender chooses the borrower from among the possible in order to provide a loan to the most financially stable of them, so the borrower chooses the lender taking into account the terms of payment and the term of the loan. (The principle is implemented both depending on the individual interests of a particular bank and on the centralized support policy pursued by the state. selected industries or spheres of activity (for example, small business, etc.)). 5

The principles of international credit express its connection with the economic laws of the market and are used to achieve the current and strategic objectives of market entities and the state.

The main functions of a loan in the international economy include the following:

1) redistribution of flows of loan capital between countries to meet the needs of world trade and internal economic development.

Through the lending mechanism, the rate of return is equalized in different countries ah and an increase in its mass;

2) regulation of flows of exports and imports through loans from state credit institutions- export-import banks, in particular, provide countries with financial assistance in the form of short-, medium- and long-term loans for the purpose of macroeconomic stability and crisis prevention;

In the process of international lending, the regulation and distribution of the gross national product is carried out.

3) saving circulation costs in the field of international settlements through the use of a credit mechanism to speed up payments and settlements, by replacing real money (gold, silver) with credit ones, as well as by developing and speeding up non-cash payments, replacing cash foreign exchange turnover with international credit transactions.

The use of credit instruments of payment (bill of exchange, transferable certificate of deposit, etc.) allows you to save the payer's own funds. Saving the time of circulation of loan capital in international economic relations increases the time of the productive functioning of capital, ensuring the expansion of production and the growth of profits;

4) acceleration of integration processes and globalization in the world economy, the capital of entrepreneurs of one country increases due to the addition of funds from other countries;

International loan gives additional features expand domestic export-oriented production with insufficient internal sources of development, integrating the country's economy into the world economy. It stimulates intra-firm accumulation of profits and consolidation of corporations through mergers, and promotes the development of domestic financial markets.

1.2 External debt: concept, reasons and methods of service.

Lending is one of the most important tools for entering new markets. The concept of external debt is closely related to international credit, as the total debt obligations (the sum of public and private debts) of national residents to foreign creditors, denominated in foreign currency or other assets. Thus, external debt (especially large-scale) largely limits the state sovereignty of the debtor country, predetermining the adoption of important decisions by this country in the field of domestic and foreign economic policy (and politics in general).

Debentures countries, the ability to serve and reduce them, combined with a well-thought-out policy for the management of external state assets - one of the most important characteristics of the effectiveness of country management. As one of the greatest politicians of the twentieth century wrote. British Prime Minister W. Churchill, "the reputation of a power is most accurately determined by the amount that it is capable of borrowing."

The Encyclopedia Britannica describes external debt as follows: “External debt is generally defined as debt held by non-residents, foreign creditors or governments. Very often, however, the distinction between external and internal debt is based on the currency in which the debt is denominated. "

The main parameters of the country's external debt include the total amount of external debt and its amount per capita, growth rates and growth indices of these indicators; external debt as a percentage of GDP and exports and expenses for servicing it, including interest payments; official international reserves as a percentage of external debt.

Now it is worth mentioning directly about servicing external debt (i.e. aboutpayments, in repayment of the loan received and in payment of interest on the debt) 6 , or rather about the factors on which it depends. Among them are the following:

• the amount of debt obligations;
• borrowing conditions;
• the nature of the use of the loan;
• level of development national economy.

Distinguish between the current external debt of a given year, which must be returned this year, and the total (accumulated) public external debt, which must be returned in this year and in subsequent years. Depending on who takes the debt, the state is allocated or in another way it is also called the official external debt, that is, that part of the external debt for which the official government bodies(if they themselves took debt abroad or gave their guarantees to pay off debt obligations of private firms, banks and local authorities); and private external debt - debt obligations of private companies, banks and local governments, not guaranteed by the state.

The state always has a guaranteed income and can always refuse a significant part of its expenses. This makes buying government bonds (that is, “investing” in government spending) attractive. Thus, the state borrows money in order to cover its costs, if taxes and other ways of making a profit do not allow it to quickly increase them. Often, massive loans are resorted to during the war. So consider the main reasons for foreign borrowing. Among them are:

• lack of financial resources, shortage of loan capital in the domestic market;
• profitable terms attracting external loans (more lending, low interest rates, preferential terms of loan repayment);
• growth of intra-firm lending (the possibility of using credit resources within a transnational group)

It must be emphasized that using borrowed money- normal business practice, according to which it is in many cases much more profitable to use attracted sources of financing than to withdraw from circulation for the implementation of any investment projects equity capital... In addition, a significant part of business projects are deprived of the opportunity to use their initiator's own investment funds due to the lack of such funds for this entrepreneur.

In this chapter, we examined the concepts of international credit and foreign policy, tried to understand their complex structure and analyze their main components. TAs the overwhelming majority of states lack their own financial ones, an economic system has developed, largely based on external borrowing. Thus, knowing the internal structure, let's try to understand what are the reasons, and mainly the solutions to the debt problem.

2. THE DEBT PROBLEM IN THE MODERN WORLD ECONOMY.

2.1. The problem of external debt and instability of international credit.

Many countries often find themselves in a situation related to the impossibility not only to repay received loans, credits, loans, but also to service them normally. Thus, the problem of external debt (external debt) arises in the world economy, which is one of the most acute and complex problems of the world economy at the beginning of the 21st century. Many researchers attribute it to the global modern world economy. At the same time, the concept of the so-called "debt economy" is considered, the main feature of which is the gradual approach of the amount of funds for servicing debt to the amount of new borrowings in the domestic and foreign markets.

The facts of bankruptcy upset the balance of international credit, complicate the processes of lending and borrowing. When individual violations take on a massive scale, another global debt crisis begins.

The debt crisis (default) is a consequence of the growing external debt. The reasons for the growth may be: budget deficit (excess of budget expenditures and net lending over the amount of income), lack of own funds, capital flight (capitals transferred by their owner from one country to another in violation of existing legislation), wrong domestic and foreign policy.

Beginning in the mid-1970s, basic and interest payments began to outstrip the growth in borrowed capital. The flourishing of international financial markets, their significant expansion, and an increase in the availability of financial resources gave rise to serious difficulties and contradictions. International monetary and credit relations became a source of serious crises, which more and more turned into crises of the world economy.

So it happened with the external debt crisis. Its beginning is usually dated to August 1982. 7 when the Mexican government shocked the entire financial world by announcing that it was unable to meet its debt obligations according to the repayment schedule. In some countries (Jamaica, Peru, Poland, Turkey, etc.), the debt crisis began even earlier, but now a dozen countries immediately followed the example of Mexico, recognizing the existence of significant difficulties in servicing debt.

It is noteworthy that the debt crisis is a chronic phenomenon of international credit, especially when governments are the debtors. Thus, since independence in the early 19th century, Argentina has declared its inability to pay its debts at least 6 times; Guatemala refused to make payments on foreign obligations 12 times. Let's try to figure out why international credit is less stable than domestic.

From point of view American economist P. Lindert, international credit often goes out of balance due to imperfect property rights. Debtors in the international credit market often have sovereignty and cannot be forced to pay debts if they do not have such a desire, especially if the recipients of loans are governments themselves (they may refuse to pay on time on debts, and creditors do not have the opportunity to go to court or impose arrest on the assets of such debtors). This reveals the specificity of international economic relations.

The debtor nation can attract foreign loans as long as the amount of loans exceeds the amount of the outflow of funds to service the accumulated debt (interest and principal payments), and then announce the termination of payments, citing some circumstance.

Moreover, as a rule, governments that intend to postpone payments or refuse them are not the governments that negotiated loans, which means there is always one more "excuse": their wasteful predecessors took the debts, so let them on them and answer. 8

Thus, the fundamental problem is that the desire of the debtor to refuse to repay the debt is very strong if his assets cannot be “frozen” by the creditors.

The aggravation of the problem of servicing external debt can occur under the influence of many circumstances. Among them, the most important are: the accumulated (accumulated) debt of the country becomes excessively large; the inflow of long-term capital attracted for preferential terms, and the attraction of short-term loans for market conditions resulting in growth interest rate; difficulties in regulating the balance of payments due to deteriorating terms of trade; a general decline in production or a negative external shock (a sharp change in prices, interest rates, or the exchange rate); the country loses the confidence of foreign creditors, the volume of loans decreases; capital flight from the country due to the current economic and political situation.

The reason for the termination of payments by sovereign debtors helps explain some of the behavior of international lenders - the insistence on setting a higher interest rate on loans to foreign governments compared to loans to private and public borrowers in their own country. Claiming a higher interest rate is a way to get a kind of insurance premium in case of debt waiver. Another feature of lending to borrowers with sovereign status is wide fluctuations in loan volumes.

The practice of international settlements shows that refusal to pay occurs when it is economically beneficial to the debtor country, and not only when the country does not have the resources to service the debt.

The scale of the problem of external debt in the modern world economy is evidenced by the fact that in 1993 the total amount of outstanding international debt obligations amounted to 2024 billion dollars, and in 2005 it already exceeded 13 trillion. Doll. (13 392 billion dollars), and now even more.

The severity of this problem is evidenced by the increase in the number of defaults (debt crises) of countries - debtors on official debt obligations: if in the decade 1956-1965, 18 defaults were noted, then for the decade 1986-1995, (thirty years later) - already 203 defaults. In recent years, the default of 1998 can be cited as examples of this kind. In Russia, in 2001 in Argentina, in 2002 in Nigeria, etc. 9

In 2009, Latvia, Hungary, Ukraine, Bulgaria and Romania faced the threat of default. Portugal, Ireland and Greece also found themselves in a difficult situation after the 2008 global financial crisis.

The more burdensome for the country the accumulated external debt, the more its servicing is involved in interaction with the functioning of the entire national economy and its financial sphere.

Organizations such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank provide advisory assistance and partially finance operations to reduce debt levels and create new incentives for increased domestic investment and increased foreign investment in debtor countries.

2.2 Mechanisms for regulating external debt. The role of international financial institutions.

External debt management is one of the urgent problems modern world economic science... In international practice, there are various mechanisms for resolving the problem of external debt.

The most common misconception is that borrowers will service their debt on time to protect their future creditworthiness. In order to delay the time when debt repayments are waived, new loans must at least cover interest and principal payments. But even if the new loans are so large, their provision increases the total amount of the final debt, which, in the end, the debtor may refuse to pay, no matter how long the new loan takes.

Let us again turn to the opinion of the economist P. Lindert, who believes that the correct way to resolve the problems of ownership of loans provided to sovereign debtors is to introduce collateral, i.e. assets of one type or another, which may become the property of the lender in the event of suspension of payments on the debt by the borrower. In addition, when creditors have such a guarantee as collateral, lending is carried out at a lower interest rate, and debtors tend to a more even rhythm of borrowing, more consistent with the growth of new real productive investment (instead of "in a hurry" to borrow as soon as foreign banks provide such an opportunity).

Lenders make concessions to borrowers by restructuring the debt in one way or another.

Debt restructuring is the re-registration of debt obligations that are due or overdue. This concept includes:

1. Debt restructuring through the Paris Club. It is most significant for public debts and occurs by common agreement of the creditor countries. The list of members of the Paris Club is subject to change, however, it contains mainly the main creditors. The main task of the Paris Club meetings is to create more acceptable conditions for debt repayment.

2. Debt restructuring by commercial banks. The most popular method of debt restructuring for commercial banks of creditors was the 1989 Brady plan. According to this plan, banks are going to reorganize some part of the debt of a developing country (as a rule, this is a decrease in interest payments) only if its government begins to implement a more radical program of macroeconomic and structural transformation... Each creditor bank has the right to choose its own methods of restructuring, which were previously stipulated in the terms of the agreement. 10

Debt revision (restructuring) also includes:

• postponement of payments to a later period;
• reduced amounts of debt paid (write-off, sale with a discount on secondary market; transfer (conversion) into national assets of the country (securities, debtor's shares);
• the exchange of debts for bonds of debtors or the provision of new creditors with the purpose of paying off past debts - recapitalization;
• exchange in national currency one debt to another - offset.

The leading role in solving the problem of external debt is played by international monetary institutions. Thus, within the framework of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), a stabilization program is being developed, which includes a number of measures to overcome or mitigate the severity of the debt crisis for the debtor country. The main points of this program are:

• liberalization currency control;
• the abolition of import controls;
• depreciation of the exchange rate;
• promoting the openness of the economy;
• taking anti-inflationary measures.

Anti-inflationary measures provide for tight control over the volume of bank lending, requirements for reducing the budget deficit, control over wages, encouraging free pricing, stimulating the market mechanism.

In addition to the IMF, the World Bank is also involved in credit relations (these two institutions are the main links), regional banks reconstruction and development, the Bank for International Settlements in Basel, the EU Central Bank, transnational banks and exchanges and other less significant organizations.

So, let's talk a little more about the main organizations and their areas of activity, for a better understanding of the current credit situation.

The IMF was established to facilitate the development of international trade and exchange rate cooperation by establishing rules for regulating exchange rates and monitoring their observance. In other words, it was intended to develop a multilateral system of payments and also to provide credit assistance to the authorities of the countries.

IMF resources consist of contributions from countries in the currencies of member countries, collective currency - SDR (Special Drawing Rights) and in gold, as well as from borrowed loans, interest received by the Fund, etc.

For each country, in accordance with its economic potential, a quota is assigned, which is payable and, in accordance with which the votes of the members of the fund are distributed when they make decisions, and the amount of access to the fund's resources is determined. The United States accounts for about a fifth, all developed countries - about half of the votes. It is clear that it is this group that determines the fund's policy. And although formally the IMF should be outside of international politics, in fact it often turns out to be its instrument in the hands of the United States.

Among the new tasks of the fund is, according to its leadership, "the promotion of sustainable non-inflationary economic growth for the benefit of the whole world."

The World Bank (World Bank) is an association of related financial institutions such as: International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), International Development Association (IDA), International Finance Corporation (IFC), Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA). The heart of the World Bank Group is, of course, the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, which has the largest number of countries and has the largest volume of operations. Only countries admitted to the IMF can be members of this organization.

Unlike the IMF, the bank provides member countries with loans for the most part for the implementation of specific economic projects under government guarantees. Its activities are predominantly extended to developing countries and countries with economies in transition. 11 The IBRD does not fully finance not a single project, not a single program, but attracts private banks of developed capitalist countries to participate in loans. In doing so, it facilitates their penetration into developing countries and guarantees their profit sharing.

Since the late 1980s. the Paris and London Clubs of Creditors began to play a significant role in solving debt problems.

The Paris Club was created in 1956 and is an informal organization of the governments of the creditor countries. The club deals with the issues of settling the state debts of countries and conducts multilateral negotiations with them on the problems of restructuring their state debts. The club has no tight organizational structure, traditionally the chairman of the club is a high-ranking official of the French Ministry of Finance.

The London Club brings together about 600 private creditor banks, which are coordinating their position in relation to debtors. The club does not have any organizational structure and usually meets as part of those banks that have the largest claims on the debtor country, whose case they are considering. A debt restructuring agreement with a country usually provides for the government to buy out the private debt of its companies at a discount or exchange it at a discount for other assets (for example, shares in national companies).

Several years ago, President of Ecuador L. Gutierrez proposed to create a club of debtors as opposed to the London and Paris clubs (they say, they will hear us sooner this way). And “listening to debtors is important as the international debt problem is getting worse.

Among the monetary and financial institutions of European countries, the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) should be mentioned.

The EBRD is an international organization established in 1990. The EBRD was formed with the aim of facilitating the transition to market economies in Central and of Eastern Europe, as well as to support private and entrepreneurial initiatives there.

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development is an international financial institution that finances projects in 29 countries from Central Europe to Central Asia. Investing capital primarily in those enterprises of the private sector, the needs of which cannot be fully met at the expense of the market. The Bank promotes the development of entrepreneurship and the transition to democracy and market economy. 12

The EBRD combines the following features:

1) an intergovernmental organization (the EBRD has the right to conclude international agreements; bank employees and their families have diplomatic immunity; property and assets of the EBRD are exempt from taxation, customs and other duties and are immune from inspection and search, arrest, requisition, confiscation, expropriation before the entry into force of the relevant judgment);

2) investment bank(i.e. the EBRD guarantees the placement of the issue valuable papers enterprises, in cases where other methods of financing are less acceptable; in addition, he acts as a consultant and advisor in the preparation of investment projects, provides technical assistance);

3) a commercial bank (the EBRD has the right to attract financial resources from world financial markets, with subsequent financing of financial and credit and other commercial institutions; provides for the status of the EBRD as a guarantor of investment projects and loans).

In Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovenia, Poland and Romania, the EBRD focuses on supporting privatization, developing credit and financial sector, solving environmental and transport problems, improving telecommunication systems.

The main objectives of using the resources of the EBRD in cooperation with Russia were: to support the oil and gas industry, small and medium-sized businesses; the creation of regional venture funds to channel funds into the production of consumer goods.

In the modern world economy, international financial organizations are called upon to serve as a forum for the establishment of monetary and settlement relations between countries, moreover, this function of them is constantly increasing, and their importance in the study, analysis and generalization of information on development trends and the development of recommendations on critical issues world economy.

Obtaining loans and credits both from international financial organizations, private banks, and through state economic assistance gave rise to the problem of external debt of developing countries. Recently, the problem has been very acute, but, nevertheless, new ways to solve it are constantly proposed and put into action.

3. FOREIGN PRACTICE AND RUSSIAN EXPERIENCE.

3.1 External debt of foreign states.

For stable and sustainable development, a country must have a certain ratio between the level of debt and certain macroeconomic parameters. These indicators include:

• the ratio of total debt to GDP;
• the ratio of total debt to exports (a debt sustainability indicator);
• the ratio of debt service to export earnings (characterizes the current severity of debt).

It is believed that a country can develop sustainably if the ratio of the volume of debt to export earnings is less than 200%, and the current debt service does not exceed 20-25%.

However, indicators of sustainability and current severity of external debt have unequal impact on countries with different levels of development. For example, it is estimated that the debt threshold for poor countries is about 50% of GDP in relation to nominal debt.

The United States has been the leader in terms of the volume of external debt over the past decades. Suffice it to say that if in June 2005 the total amount of outstanding international debt amounted to 13.4 trillion. dollars, then during this period in the hands of non-residents were American securities for 6.8 trillion. dollars (ie more than half of these obligations). While this does not fit their economy, it is a good example of how well one can live on debt. But if we consider the rating by this indicator in 2012, then the United States is far from being the leader. Ireland's external debt is more than 10 times the volume of GDP, Great Britain - 4 times, the Netherlands and Hong Kong - 3 times. As for the United States, thenThe fiscal year 2012 ended here on September 30th. The amount of external debt at its end amounted to 16.066 trillion. dollars for the first day of the new year the amount of debtgrew by $ 93 billionand reached a record high in US $ 16,159,487,013,300.35 13

However, it is clear that the absolute scale of external debt alone does not yet indicate the degree of acuteness in servicing and repaying this debt. Another indicator is often used to assess the burden of debt - the debt service ratio. It is defined as the ratio of regular payments to repay long- and short-term loans and interest on all loans and foreign exchange earnings (export of goods and services). This characteristic, like most other indicators, does not remain unchanged. If in the early 60s. it was widely believed that the level of safety for this indicator is 7%, then at the end of the 60s. it has been raised to 10% and is now seen as moderate at 30%.

However, when assessing, for example, the severity of the debt problem for the United States, we must keep in mind that this country has the largest GDP (15.71 trillion Doll.; the debt / GDP ratio reached 103%. And it is growing at about 1.5% per month) and for many years it has been the leading exporter of goods and services in the world.

Considering the situation with the United States, political analyst Vladimir Zolotarev asks the question: “Doesn't he want or can't pay?The US government "earns" $ 175 billion every month. This is said to be more than enough to service debt and support important government spending. The state owns 650 million acres of land, which is approximately one third of the territory of the United States. Selling this land, not counting income, will save the budget from 11 billion annually associated with its maintenance. The state also owns a railway company Amtrak, mail, air traffic control and similar offices that can be easily sold. I think there is no need to remind about the gigantic military budget, which is simply languishing in anticipation of a reduction. In the end, even a return to government spending at the level of 2002-2003, as experts say, will solve the problem. " 14

A similar situation is with other leading countries of the world, which also have large external debt, the public debt of most of the most developed countries of the world does not exceed 65% of GDP. In the EU, as one of the criteria for the possibility of joining the Economic and Monetary Union (joining the "euro zone"), the ratio of debt to GDP is not higher than 60%. Developed countries are also the largest creditors, so the degree of trust in them as debtors is high.

Poor countries, which are ready to borrow under high interest rates, but, as a rule, they are unable to repay this debt. The growing external debt of such countries ultimately creates a situation of the so-called "debt loop" (when all new external borrowings are mainly used to pay off previously received loans, credits, loans).

Let's return to the leading and largest states of the world and consider the latest statistics. Thus, the external debt of the 50 largest states in the world has reached 65 trillion. dollars, and this is not the limit: according to the European Commission, the external debt of the overwhelming majority of states in the eurozone is only growing.

After analyzing the situation, analysts The International Organization creditors (WOC) came to the conclusion that in recent years the external debt in the largest economies did not decrease, but grew. Thus, the growth was driven by government injections, including borrowing from non-residents.
The leaders of the rating of countries in terms of the volume of external debt in most cases retain their last year's positions.
The US external debt became equal to the volume of GDP at the end of 2011.

Only Japan has this figure below 50%, but this is probably the only positive moment in the debt ratings for this country. Japanese level public debt(which also includes domestic borrowing) is off scale: the ratio to GDP is 226%. The country continues to solve the main problems mainly through domestic financial injections in the national currency, which explains such a high figure.

Greece is behind Japan in this indicator (161%). In third place is Italy (120%), which uses every opportunity to avoid the fate of Greece. At the end of 2011, Italy's GDP grew by 7%, while France and Germany's - by 8% and 9%, respectively. On the whole, 2011 was quite successful for the eurozone countries. Economic growth was observed in all countries except Greece (-1%).

As for Russia, in all respects it is in good positions. The level of external debt to GDP does not exceed 30%, its growth over the year is only 6%. The level of public debt is even lower and does not exceed 10% in relation to GDP, and for every Russian there is $ 1247. At the same time, almost all debt is covered by international reserves.

To better understand the quantitative level of Russia's external debt, it is necessary to familiarize oneself with the internal structure of its credit obligations.

3.2 Russia's external debt and its structure.

External debt is a key factor in Russia's economic development in the 21st century. Probably, Russia's dependence in this area will continue to grow as the processes of globalization and liberalization in financial markets intensify.

Currently, external debt has a negative impact on the development of the national economy of Russia in several areas:

• the dependence of the Russian Federation on foreign states that have provided loans is increasing when making decisions in the field of economic policy;
• there is a reduction in the amount of funds that can be used for investment, which seriously limits economic growth or even leads to stagnation;
• weakened the motivation to achieve the best macroeconomic indicators which will entail requirements for the timely repayment of the debt in full;
• the amount of funds that can be directed to the development of the social sphere is decreasing, social tension is increasing;
• the monetary situation is destabilizing;
• there is a weakening of Russia's position in the world markets for goods and capital.

The combination of these qualitative indicators gives grounds to characterize the country's economic system at the beginning of the new millennium as a debt one. This means that the adoption of most economic decisions at the state level is closely related, or even depends, on the ability to repay and service external debt.

External borrowing is a source of financial resources for the authorities. Their peculiarity lies in the fact that, although the executive and legislative authorities have all the rights in the sphere of attracting and using international loans, the burden of responsibility for an erroneous decision falls on the citizens of the country, who through the tax system transfer to the authorities the funds necessary to pay off foreign debt. Thus, external debt has a serious impact on tax burden and the social situation.

Russia is a debtor and at the same time a creditor. The Russian Federation has assumed obligations to service the external debt of the USSR. The country's external debt increased sharply during the transition period. If in 1985 it was $ 28.3 billion, then in 1900 it increased to $ 59.8 billion, in 1993 - to $ 80 billion, in 1999 it exceeded $ 140 billion. dollars, and in 2005 it was equal to 98 billion dollars.External debt of the Russian Federation for January-September 2012 grew by 9.6% and as of October 1 of this year, according to estimates The Central Bank(Central Bank) of the Russian Federation, amounted to 597 billion 651 million dollars. 15

It seems appropriate to consider the main directions and some specific measures balanced policy on servicing external debt. In the process of managing foreign debt, Russia faces the need to solve the following tasks:

1. Maintaining external debt at a level that ensures the preservation of the country's economic security.
2. Control over the schedule of debt payments so that there are no periods of peak loads, and the main payments would fall on the moments of expected economic growth.
3. Minimizing the cost of debt by lengthening the term of borrowing and reducing profitability.
4. Timely and complete fulfillment of obligations in order to avoid the accrual of penalties for delays and to ensure the country's reputation as a first-class borrower.
5. Ensuring effective targeted use attracted funds.
6. Ensuring predictability and stability of the debt market. 16

On the one hand, based on export earnings, Russia is quite capable of servicing and paying off its debt, since the relative indicators are much lower than the thresholds accepted in world practice. but low level GDP deprives the country of the material basis for sustainable development, which leads to a recurring external debt crisis. At the same time, the transfer of money abroad to pay off the debt reduces to a minimum the amount of financial resources that can be directed to the development of the national economy.

Russia's external debt includes:

• Russia's debt to foreign governments and debt obligations guaranteed by foreign governments;
• external debt to foreign commercial banks... Debt obligations of Russia to foreign banks are subject to free purchase and sale on the world interbank market;
• debt of foreign trade associations for centralized import deliveries, formed before 1991

The amount of Russia's debt with interest to the Paris Club creditor countries is $ 40 billion.

The Russian government has reached an agreement on a long-term restructuring of the Russian debt to Paris Club creditors. In accordance with the signed document, the repayment of the debt by Russia should be completed in 2020.The signing of the agreement also gave Russia the opportunity to become a member of this club itself, which makes it easier for it to receive debts from non-paying countries, since the members of the Club pursue a solidarity policy towards debtors.

An agreement was also reached with the London Club on a long-term restructuring of Russia's foreign debt totaling $ 32 billion. This debt was re-registered for the next 25 years.

Russia's debtors are developing, former socialist countries and former republics USSR, which became independent states. Most of international requirements Russia passed to it from the USSR.

With regard to the debts of the CIS countries of the Russian Federation, steps are currently being taken to develop various options for conversion (exchange). Thus, Ukraine partially repays its debt to Russia without charging rent for the use of the bays of Sevastopol.

3.3 The problem of financial instability. Development prospects.

The problem of financial instability is generated by the impact on the global economy and financial system various factors. These include:

• transnational speculative capital;
• availability of large-scale high-speed information methods;
• general economic instability;
• insufficient efficiency of the IMF.

The global economy is teetering on the brink of another major recession. Production growth has already slowed significantly in 2011, and sluggish growth is expected in 2012 and 2013. The challenges to the development of the global economy are numerous and interrelated. 17

The most pressing challenge is to tackle the ongoing employment crisis and deteriorating prospects economic growth especially in developed countries. While unemployment remains high at almost 9 percent and incomes are flat, the recovery is stalled in the short term due to a lack of aggregate demand. But as more and more workers, especially young ones, are unemployed for extended periods, medium term growth rates are also deteriorating due to the devastating impact of unemployment on labor qualifications and skills.

The rapid economic cooling was both a cause and a consequence of the sovereign debt crisis in the euro area, and financial problems in other countries. Steps by governments to achieve an orderly resolution of Greece's sovereign debt have been accompanied by continued turmoil in financial markets and growing concern over possible default in some large countries in the euro area, in particular in Italy. The austerity response further undermines growth and employment prospects, making fiscal adjustments and improving financial sector solvency increasingly challenging.

The United States economy also continues to experience high unemployment, uncertain consumer and business sentiment, and a delicate balance in the financial sector. The European Union (EU) and the United States of America — the two largest economies in the world — are closely intertwined. Their problems can easily spread to each other and lead to another global economic downturn. Developing countries, whose economies recovered quickly from the 2009 global crisis, would then be negatively impacted through trade and financial channels.

The growth of the world gross product(IMP) is projected at 2.6 percent in the 2012 baseline scenario and 3.2 percent for 2013. This scenario of the global economic situation and outlook in 2012 is based on relatively optimistic assumptions, including the assumption that the sovereign debt crisis in Europe will not expand beyond one or more small countries and that these debt problems can be addressed in a more or less orderly manner.

However, if policymakers, especially in Europe and the United States, fail to cope with the employment crisis and prevent a sovereign debt crisis from escalating and financial sector volatility, world economy may enter the next crisis. In an alternative scenario of a worsening situation, the growth of the GDP will slow to 0.5 percent in 2012, which means a decrease in the average per capita income worldwide. Global output growth could rise to about 4.0 percent in 2012 and 2013, but if the current course is maintained, such an optimistic scenario will remain far from reality.

According to the IMF's expectations, until 2015 the volume of government debt will continue to grow. Leadership in this indicator will be retained by the United States and the $ 20 trillion bar. dollars will overcome in three years, Japan will retain its second place and by 2015 the government debt will exceed 15 trillion. dollars. Judging by the trends, by 2015 the total debt of the top ten debtors will practically reach 55 trillion. dollars, that is, the amount that today accounts for the debts of 50 states. 18

The highest level of debt burden was recorded in Japan - there are 105 thousand dollars of public debt per one inhabitant of the country. Ireland, which ranks second, has this figure more than 2 times lower (49.9 thousand dollars). As seen from the rating for last year the debt burden in the top 20 grew on average by more than 10%. Except for Sweden and Portugal, where there is a slight decrease in this indicator (-4% and -2%, respectively).

In the ranking by the volume of international reserves, there have been noticeable changes. For several years, the top three did not change, a rather significant gap remained between the third and fourth places. But at the end of 2011 Saudi Arabia overtook Russia and took third place. Apparently, the government of this Arab country is building up a reserve for a "rainy day" when oil runs out. To get into second place, they need to double reserve fund... This is possible if oil prices are also high, and Japan begins to use gold and foreign exchange reserves to solve internal problems.

In conclusion, we present one more interesting document. Within the framework of the International Monetary Fund, an analysis of the prospects for the development of the world economy was carried out under the title "One Hundred Years of Fighting Over-State Debt" During which the group leader John Simon, as well as Andrea Pescatori and Damiano Sandri put forward several provisions, among which the most striking was: “Reducing public debt takes time, especially in a weak external economic environment. Debt reduction is a marathon, not a sprint. "

Based on this analysis, a so-called "road map" was proposed for successfully solving the problem of the current state of emergency debt, which contains the following provisions:

1. Given the current weak economic growth, its support is the first priority to overcome the negative impact of fiscal consolidation (changes in the maturity of previously issued debt obligations)... Policy should be aimed at addressing underlying structural problems in the economy, and monetary policy should be as adaptive as possible.

2. Since debt reduction takes time, fiscal consolidation should focus on long-term structural changes... In this regard, budget institutions such as those set up in Belgium can be helpful in increasing the transparency and accountability of the budget process.

3. However, the example of Italy in the 1990s shows that a small reduction in debt is possible even in the absence of strong economic growth.

CONCLUSION

International monetary and financial relations constantly evolve and change.

Describing the lender-borrower relationship, it should be emphasized that the lender is interested not so much in the quick return of the amount of debt by the borrower, as in obtaining stable interest income on the loan for a long period of time, and therefore early repayment the amount of international debt in most cases does not satisfy the creditor. There is a close interdependence and mutual influence between the borrower and the lender, the interpretation of which is the proverb: "You are in the hands of the lender if you owe him $ 1,000, but the lender is in your hands if your debt is $ 1 billion."

At the same time, an increase in external debt is extremely dangerous, since it entails a significant increase in debt service costs, the danger of unfulfilled debt obligations and, as a result, default (bankruptcy) of the borrower with the subsequent sale of its assets by the lender.

A certain contribution to the destabilization of international monetary and credit relations is also made by the IMF, which does not clearly plan and monitor the fate of huge loans provided to individual countries, often without taking into account the real state of their economies.

Of course, the IMF as an international organization does not have sufficient supranational powers. It was created in the interests of the United States and developed countries. Therefore, the activities of the IMF without serious restructuring is impossible.

Summing up, we can draw the following conclusion:

• the concept and essence of public external debt are closely intertwined with the budgetary sphere and credit relations;
  • the causes of external debt, as a rule, are difficult periods for the economy: wars, recessions, etc .;
  • the government became aware of the problem of the upcoming significant payments on external debt in the coming years. This is evidenced by the mechanism for creating financial reserve;
  • most of the Russian debt (including the debt of the USSR) is made up of short-term borrowings, which is why, over the past ten years, the question of debt restructuring has arisen so often;
  • debt repayment and servicing is currently a priority;

Based on the findings, the following actions should be taken:

• to create a system of efficient (minimizing total costs and maximizing reduction in the nominal amount of debt and accelerating economic growth) public debt management;
• to smooth out payments in the coming years to carry out advanced repayment of a part of debt obligations;
• restructuring of the IMF in terms of assessing the situation of individual countries of the world in the financial, economic and socio-political spheres;

With the consistent implementation of these measures over the next decade, the threat of a debt crisis will be eliminated, the debt problem in its current form will cease to exist, and the rate of economic growth will be high.

BIBLIOGRAPHY

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1. If the recipients of the loan are governments, they may refuse to pay the debts on time, because ...

1.they don't have enough money

2.the country has high inflation

3.the country has high unemployment

4.they have sovereignty

Debtors often have sovereignty and cannot be forced to pay their debts if they do not want to, especially if the recipients of the loan are governments: they may refuse to pay the debts on time, and creditors do not have the opportunity to go to court or seize the assets of the debtors ...

2.One of the factors behind the 1982 global debt crisis is that loans to developing countries were issued ...

1.at low nominal interest

2.under high real percentage

3. at a high nominal interest

4.in small volumes

In 1982, dozens of debtor countries declared that they could not pay off their debts and forced their foreign creditors to postpone interest payments and principal repayments. There are two main factors that explain why this "breakdown" occurred precisely in 1982. First, the growth in lending in the mid-1970s. was associated with a sharp increase in private bank reserves. Banks' reserves, in turn, increased due to increased savings in oil-exporting countries and due to inflationary monetary policy in many countries of the world. Additional reserves were sent to third world countries in the form of loans at high nominal interest rates, since investment prospects in developed countries were uncertain, and third world countries in those years strongly opposed the inflow of foreign direct investment.

3. The traditional mechanism for restructuring external debt begins with the adoption by the country of a program of stabilization and economic reforms, supported by ...

1. The central bank of the country

3. IMF and World Bank

4. The London Club of Lenders

The traditional mechanism for restructuring external debt begins with the country's adoption of a stabilization and economic reform program supported by the IMF and the World Bank through their concession loans. Further, the consent of the Paris Club of Official Creditors for the restructuring is required pure streams funds related to debt service, etc.

4.Since the late 1980s. the Paris Club of Creditors, which is an informal organization ...

1.commercial banks

2.creditor countries

3.ministers of finance

4.the chairmen of central banks

Since the late 1980s. the Paris Club of Creditors, which is an informal organization of the governments of creditor countries, began to play a significant role in solving debt problems. The club deals with the issues of settling the state debts of countries and conducts multilateral negotiations with them on the problems of restructuring their state debts. The club does not have a rigid organizational structure; traditionally, a high-ranking official of the French Ministry of Finance is elected chairman of the club.

5. The process of settling external debt is called ____________ debt.

1. restructuring

2.billing

3.Hedging

4.investing

The process of settling external debt has been called debt restructuring.

Debt restructuring - measures taken by agreement between debtors and creditors aimed at maintaining the solvency of debtors in the medium and long term.

6.One explanation for the 1982 external debt crisis is that high nominal interest rates ...

1.became low real interest rates

2.has been canceled

3. turned into high real interest rates

4.has been re-enlarged

In 1982, dozens of debtor countries declared that they could not pay off their debts and forced their foreign creditors to postpone interest payments and principal repayments.

In 1982, the global economic downturn continued: production and employment stagnated, and the decline in inflation (disinflation) exceeded all expectations. In the 1970s. debtors took out loans at high nominal interest rates, which reflected widespread fears of rising dollar prices. But the tight monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve for several years has resulted in high nominal interest rates turning into high real interest rates, which has dealt a severe blow to borrowers.

7.Restructuring of external debt can be carried out in the form of ...

1.recapitalization

2.structuring

3.Hedging

4.currency speculation

External debt restructuring can be carried out on the basis of one or more combinations of the following measures:

1. transfer of payments;

2. reduction in the amount of debt;

3. recapitalization - the exchange of debts for bonds of debtors or the provision of new loans for the purpose of paying past debts.

The most famous of this group of debt reduction measures is the 1989 plan by then US Treasury Secretary Nicholas Brady. Under this plan, some developing countries that had negotiated economic reform programs with the IMF could swap their debts to foreign banks for bonds that could be traded at market price in the global financial market.

8. Debtors in the international credit market cannot be forced to pay their debts if they do not have such a desire, since ...

1.they have no money

2.the loan was taken by another government

3.they have sovereignty

4.the country has high inflation

Debtors in the international credit market often have sovereignty and cannot be forced to pay their debts if they do not have such a desire, especially if the recipients of loans are the governments themselves, they may refuse to pay the debts on time, and creditors do not have the opportunity to go to court or to seize the assets of such debtors.

1. The traditional mechanism for restructuring external debt begins with the adoption of a program of stabilization and economic reforms by the country, supported by ...

BUT) IMF and World Bank ;

B) The country's central bank ;

IN) UN ;

G) By the London Lenders Club .

2. To the causes of the external debt crisis not applicable …

BUT) capital flight from borrowing countries abroad ;

B) depreciation of the dollar ;

IN) rise in prices for mineral raw materials ;

G) abolition of the gold-dollar standard .

3. The exchange of debts for bonds of debtors or the provision of new loans with the purpose of paying past debts is called ...

BUT) diversification ;

B) reinvestment ;

IN) recapitalization ;

G) restructuring .

4. Countries suffered the most from the debt crisis of the 1980s ...

BUT) North Africa ;

B) of Eastern Europe ;

IN) South-East Asia ;

G) Latin America .

5. The consequences of the debt crisis for borrowing countries include ...

BUT) reduction in government foreign exchange reserves ;

B) acceleration of economic growth ;

IN) slowdown in price growth ;

G) lower interest rates domestically .

6.Since the late 1980s. the London Club of Creditors, which is an informal organization ...

BUT) creditor countries ;

B) private lending banks ;

IN) finance ministers ;

G) prime ministers .

7.Since the late 1980s. the Paris Club of Creditors, which is an informal organization ...

BUT) commercial banks ;

B) finance ministers ;

IN) creditor countries ;

G) central bankers .

8. One explanation for the 1982 external debt crisis is that high nominal interest rates ...

BUT) were re-enlarged ;

B) were canceled ;

IN) turned into low real interest rates ;

G) turned into high real interest rates .

9 .. Restructuring of external debt can be carried out in the form of ...

BUT) recapitalization ;

B) structuring ;

IN) hedging ;

G) currency speculation .

10. Countries' public debt restructuring is usually done by ...

BUT) London club ;

B) Paris Club ;

IN) UN General Assembly ;

G) International Bank for Reconstruction and Development .

11. The traditional mechanism for restructuring external debt begins with the country's adoption of a program of stabilization and economic reform, supported by ...

BUT) By the London Lenders Club ;

B) The country's central bank ;

IN) IMF and World Bank ;

G) UN .

12. One factor contributing to the 1982 global debt crisis is that loans to developing countries were made ...

BUT) in small volumes ;

B) at high real interest ;

IN) at low nominal interest ;

G) at high nominal interest .

13. If the recipients of the loan are governments, they may refuse to pay the debts on time, because ...

BUT) they have sovereignty ;

B) they don't have enough money ;

IN) high inflation in the country ;

G) the country has high unemployment .

14 Debtors in the international credit market cannot be forced to pay their debts if they do not have such a desire, since ...

BUT) they have no money ;

B) they have sovereignty ;

IN) the loan was taken by another government ;

G) high inflation in the country .

Those countries that give preference to current consumption, that is, they consume more than they produce, are forced to borrow money from abroad. Conversely, countries that restrict current consumption in order to expand it in the future have the opportunity to provide loans. As a result, an opportunity is created for development of the system of international borrowing and lending but at the same time external debt is formed. A sign offensive external debt crisis usually serves violation of the loan repayment schedule borrowed by the country through government channels.

Crises begin with the fact that a country (or a group of countries) announces the impossibility of paying off its external debt or the cancellation of the debt. It is impossible to get the debtor to pay off his debt, since the role of the borrower is played by a sovereign economic agent, often the government of a foreign state. It is impossible to apply sanctions to it that apply to an ordinary defaulter of a particular country. The facts of the bankruptcy of the state upset the balance international market credit, complicate the processes of lending and borrowing. When individual violations take on a massive scale, another global debt crisis begins.

Debt Crisis Factors

The emergence of an external debt crisis is usually facilitated by a number of factors, subdivided into fundamental (or structural) and specific. Structural- are associated with deep trends in the development of the economy of the borrowing country. This is general decline in production or negative external shock; difficulties in settlement due to deteriorating terms of trade; a decrease in the inflow of long-term capital attracted on favorable terms, an increase in the volume of short-term loans on market conditions; capital flight out of the country due to the current economic and political situation; loss of confidence in the country from foreign creditors due to the growth of its accumulated debt and a corresponding decrease in external lending.

Specific factors most often associated with depressed state of the economy many countries of the world caused by structural, financial and (or) cyclical crises... For example, the debt crisis of the 1980s. was caused by a relative surplus of bank capital, a multiple rise in oil prices in 1974, 1979-1980s. and widening deficits in the balance of payments of oil-importing countries, especially developing countries; the transfer of a number of industries to developing countries, which caused an increase in investment demand; stimulating an increase in demand due to low interest rates for loans; a lack of attention in lending on how loans were used by oil-importing countries; 80% of loans from developing countries between 1973 and 1982 went to offset the rise in oil prices and to finance running costs governments, as well as servicing growing debt; debt repayment at the expense of short-term loans, etc. By the beginning of the debt crisis, the structure of the external debt of developing countries deteriorated significantly due to a significant excess of private debt over official creditors, which worsened the terms of debt service.

Under normal conditions, external debt is serviced by foreign exchange earnings from the export of goods and services.... Sometimes, in order to pay off debts on time, a country increases exports and cuts import costs. If this cannot be done, then the external debt is repaid by new borrowings abroad, and an increase in external borrowing leads to an increase in debt, an increase in debt service costs. A vicious circle ensues. It is possible to break it to countries with high levels of indebtedness only by referring to the stabilization program, which involves:

• the abolition or liberalization of foreign exchange and import controls;
• depreciation of the local currency exchange rate;
• pursuing a tough domestic anti-inflationary program, including control over bank loans, government control through spending cuts and increases, and refusal to index rates, and encourage free markets;
• opening the economy to the world economy and encouraging foreign investment.

External debt analysis

Analysis of the situation with the dynamics of international debt and data on the severity of debt shows that the debt burden on the economy developing world not only does not weaken, but also gets worse.

The most difficult situation with regard to external debt at the beginning of the XXI century. continues to remain in Africa, especially in the countries of Tropical Africa. They have the highest share of debt held by official institutions. The debt is repaid through new borrowings. In general, external factors played an important role in the development of the debt crisis in Africa: this is the crisis in industrialized countries in the 1980s, as well as the miscalculations of the IMF and the IBRD, etc.

Arab countries - oil importers have a high external debt.

In the early 90s. appeared a new group debtors are countries. Some of them were unable to fully pay off their debts. The total amount of external debt by 2007, together with interest, exceeded 3.0 trillion. Doll.

In general, the growing volume of international debt of developing countries creates an opportunity for pressure on their foreign and domestic policies. External debt has become one of the main factors of stagnation in the economy... The burden of debt service payments severely limited the ability of these countries to increase growth rates and fight backwardness, and led to a reduction in imports.

Central to solving the problem of external debt carried out by international monetary organizations. The IMF develops a stabilization program for each debtor. The provision of new bank loans is linked to the adoption of these programs. Issues related to debt to foreign countries are resolved by the Paris Club. Debts to private creditors are negotiated within the framework of the London Club.

Lending countries, the IMF and the World Bank are conducting differentiated policies in relation to recipient countries. According to the World Bank methodology, all member countries are divided into two groups: overly indebted and moderately indebted. Attribution to a specific group depends on the level and degree of external debt burden.

This differentiation makes it possible to develop measures to link the amount of debt payments to actual capabilities of borrowers.

In the settlement of debt payments, it is widely used restructuring, i.e. transfer or postponement of payments. Debt restructuring relieves debtors and creditors of the need to negotiate annually. She gives temporary relief to debtors, annual payments decrease, but the size of the debt does not decrease, but increases due to interest in the new period of its repayment. Restructuring is accompanied, as a rule, by the provision of new loans.

In recent years, the practice of capitalizing interest payments has expanded significantly, that is, turning them into principal debt; various types of conversion of debt obligations, including the exchange of debts at the market rate for shares of national privatized enterprises, their sale, repeated restructuring of prolonged amounts.

The global community has recognized that finding a solution to the debt problem is common responsibility debtor and creditor countries, commercial banks and multilateral financial institutions.

The movement of loan capital in the field of foreign economic relations acts in the form of international credit.

International credit Is a loan in cash or commodity form, provided by the creditor one country to a borrower from another countries on terms of repayment, urgency and interest. In a broad sense, this concept also includes foreign portfolio investments- investing capital in foreign bonds, shares of foreign companies and other securities for the purpose of generating income, and not establishing control over economic activities borrower.

In conditions of stability and predictability of the world economy, international lending can be effective from a global point of view. The impact of international credit is identical to the welfare impact of trade liberalization measures or labor migration. Removing restrictions on the path of international financial flows brings benefits to the world as a whole and to those groups for whom freedom means additional opportunities, but damages groups for whom freedom means more fierce competition.

Either the creditor country or the borrowing country can impose taxes on the international loan.

If the financial power of a country is large enough to influence the percentage level of the international capital market, this power can be used in its own interests. By limiting the supply of loan capital in foreign markets, it can force foreign borrowers to pay more than high rate and achieve net one-sided benefits.

A borrowing country, by limiting its borrowing, can force lenders to accept lower yields.

If both sides try to tax the same international capital, the world economy will move towards financial autarky, which means losses for everyone.

Analysis of taxation of international lending and borrowing assumes that taxes cannot be avoided. In practice, this often succeeds. Creditors and debtors can devise thousands of ways to hide a deal. The most common instru cop is an "Transfer pricing". There are often not only loan transactions between creditors and debtors, but also purchase and sale transactions. If they try to present the case as if no loans were issued, they can do so by introducing non-market prices for goods and services of their internal exchange of goods, for example, by signing agreements in which the borrower sells some goods to the lender for cash in this moment time, and the lender sells the goods to the borrower for cash at a later date. It can be arranged that the lender is underpaying for some goods at the present time and / or the borrower is overpaying for some goods later. So falsified prices carry out a "transfer" of additional interest payments from the borrower to the lender. The borrower receives loan funds, the lender receives interest, but governments this do not receive any taxes on international credit transactions.

International credit is often out of balance. The main reason for the recurring recurrence of the international debt crisis is the strong motivation for sovereign debt to refuse payments on debt.

Sovereign debtors cannot be forced to pay their debts if they even have such a desire. Even if governments refuse to pay the debt on time m, creditors do not have the opportunity to go to court or superimpose seizure of debtors' assets.

The debtor nation can attract foreign loans until the amount of loans exceeds the amount of the outflow of funds to service the accumulated amount of debt (that is, payments of interest and principal), and then announce the termination of payments.

The termination of payments can be presented as the inability to pay due to recent problems in the economy - a decline in production, deterioration in the terms of trade, natural disasters, wars, etc. Typically, governments that intend to defer or refuse payments are not the governments that negotiated loans, and they try to justify themselves by saying that their predecessors took on the debt.

The urge to refuse payments on debt is very strong when your assets cannot be frozen by your creditors.

Refusal to pay occurs in cases where it is beneficial to the debtor countries, and not strictly in cases where the country does not have the funds.

The motives for stopping payments by sovereign debtors also help explain some of the behavior patterns of international creditors.

One of them is the insistence on setting a higher interest rate on loans to foreign governments in comparison with loans to private and public borrowers in their own country. Demanding a higher interest rate is a way of obtaining a kind of insurance premium in case of debt repayment failure: while there is no crisis, lenders receive this premium, but in the event of a crisis, they suffer large losses.

Another feature of lending to borrowers with sovereign status is wide fluctuations in the volume of loans. (Lenders first fly in a "crowd", and then scatter in panic, because they know that lending to a borrower without reliable collateral can only be carried out collectively.)

This club is largely "Western", since the creditors of states experiencing difficulties in debt repayment are mainly industrialized countries. However, developing countries such as Brazil have already participated in some meetings on the side of creditors.

One of the new methods for resolving external debt is the transformation of debt obligations of developing countries into shares of their enterprises. In another way, such an operation is called conversion or capitalization of external arrears and in international economic practice - " debt-equity swap " (transactions "debt in exchange for shares »).

External debt capitalization allows borrowers from developing countries to achieve several goals:

- to reduce the debt in foreign currency;

- to increase the efficiency of the national economy by attracting foreign capital;

- improve the distribution of debt among creditors by expanding the secondary market for debt obligations.

To regulate foreign debt conversion operations, some developing countries have adopted special government programs debt capitalization.

The core of the conversion mechanism is the established rules and regulations, procedures and procedures.

First, the types of debt obligations, which can be subject conversions. Then the permitted species are determined conversion deals(conversion into stocks, cash, tangible objects) and priorities among them.

The industries and regions in which it is allowed to make investments are determined, as well as other conditions are negotiated. Among them is the creation of labor-intensive and export-oriented productions, a ban on the purchase of shares in existing enterprises.

Restrictions are imposed on the use of shares and other securities acquired by converting the government's foreign debt obligations.

Temporary restrictions are introduced on the transfer of profits and the repatriation of capital received as a result of the investment of converted funds.

At the same time, almost always and everywhere, an investment financed from converted funds is considered as a foreign investment with the right to subsequent payment and transfer of dividends in freely convertible currency.