The theory of crisis development in the global economy. The concept of crisis and the main types of crises Types of economic crises

A crisis - This is an extreme aggravation of contradictions in the socio-economic system, threatening its resilience in the environment.

Types of crisis

Exist general and local Crisis. General covers the entire socio-economic system, local - only part of it. This is the separation of crisis on the scale of manifestation.

On the problem of crisis can be allocated macro- and microcrisians. Macrisis is inherent in rather large volumes and scope of problems. Micro-crisis captures only a separate problem or group of problems.

The main feature of the crisis is that he, being even a local or microcrisis, as a chain reaction, can spread to the entire system or all the issue of development. Because in the system there is an organic interaction of all elements and problems are not solved separately. But it occurs when there is no managing crisis situations, or vice versa, when the intentional motivation of the development of the crisis is carried out. Pseudo-crisis - This is the manifestation of crisis signs in the "Healthy" economic system. Pseudo-crisis can be provoked, for example, in order to displacing competitors from the market, as well as the vualization of certain actions of the business trafficking.

According to the structure of relations in the socio-economic system, on the differentiation of the issues of its development, it is possible to allocate separate groups of economic, social, organizational, technological, psychological crises. Economic crises reflect acute contradictions in the country's economy or the economic condition of a separate enterprise, firm. Social crises arise in the collision of the interests of various social groups or formations: workers and employers, trade unions and entrepreneurs, etc. Organizational crises are manifested as crises of separation and integration of individual divisions as the department of administrative units, regions, branches or subsidiaries. The technological crisis arises as a crisis of new technological ideas in conditions of a clearly pronounced need for new technologies. Psychological crises are manifested in the form of stress, fears, uncertainty, dissatisfaction, etc. These are crises in the socio-psychological climate of society, a team or a separate group.

For direct reasons, crises are divided into natural, public, environmental. The first are caused by natural living conditions and human activity, the second - public relations in all kinds of their manifestations. Environmental crises arise when changing natural conditionscaused by human activity.

In addition, crisis can be predictable and unexpected, apparent and latent, deep and lungs.

Two phases of the diagnosis of crisis are distinguished:

• - establishing an object belonging to a specific class or group of objects;
• - identifying the differences in the diagnosed object from the objects of its class by comparing its actual parameters with the base.

The first stage is called the stage of high-quality identification of the object and implies the definition of such parameters that are common to a certain set of objects. For example, to diagnose the macroeconomic crisis, it is necessary to determine which group by the type of national economy there is a state of interest to us, namely, to industrialized countries developing or to countries with economies in transition.

To diagnose the crisis in a specific system, it is necessary to determine which form of the property is this system: state, private, joint-stock, etc.

In the second stage, the object is quantitative. To do this, use the basic diagnosis parameters, defined as deviations of actual from the basic.

By itself, the economic crisis does not arise nowhere and does not go anywhere. It is an integral part of the fact that in economic theory is called a cycle. The cyclicality of the development of the economy is proved by time. Economic overproduction crises are organically inherent in capitalism and inevitably accompany him in historical development. Popular in the middle of our century the theory of state regulation of the economy in order to prevent crises, which allowed the short-term smoothing of adverse trends, in the long-term aspect did not meet expectations, failed to resist the general trend of the cyclical development of the market economy.

The objective causes of each crisis are always in the preceding development of the economy at other stages of the cycle. The beginning of the periodic economic crises put the crisis of 1825 in the UK, where capitalist industries used to have developed before. relations. The next crisis is the crisis of 1836, which covered the United Kingdom and the United States - 2 countries, closely related economically. In 1847 there was another crisis, which raised almost all countries in Europe. In its nature, he approached the global crisis.

The first global economic crisis took place in 1857 and almost in all countries it was the deepest crisis since their entry into the capitalist pathway. In the US, the production of cast iron decreased during the crisis by 20%, the consumption of cotton by 27%. In the UK, the shipbuilding was most affected, where the production volume fell by 26%. In Germany, 25% reduced the consumption of cast iron; in France - by 13% of cast iron wax and for the same consumption of cotton; In Russia, the smelting of the cast iron fell by 17%, the production of cotton fabrics - by 14%.

The new economic crisis of 1866 was particularly acute in the UK, but the rest of the countries affected slightly. The next global crisis began in 1873 from Austria and Germany. It was the most long-lasting crisis in the history of capitalism: he ended in 1878, when the United King Engine fell into the orbit. The economic crisis of 1882 covered mainly US and France; During the crisis of 1890, the greatest economic shocks were observed in Germany, the USA and France. The 1900-1903 crisis became a kind of frontier between the era of the capitalism of free competition and the era of the imperialism. During this crisis, the United States and Germany was particularly affected, to a lesser extent of the United Kingdom and France. He was heavy economic situation And Russia, where the economic crisis coincided with the crime.

Bourgeois ideologists hoped that with the emergence of monopolies of capitalist, systematically organizing production in their enterprises, economic crises will disappear or at least soften. But that did not happen. The first economic crisis of the Epoch of Imperialism - the 1907 crisis was no less destructive than previous ones. Especially he touched upon the US economy. In art. "Marxism and Revisionism" V.I. Lenin wrote that the crisis of 1907 was a bright proof that crises remained an inevitable component of the capitalist system. At the same time, Lenin indicated that in the era of imperialism, "the forms, the sequence, picture of individual crises changed.".

The economic crisis of 1920-1921 covered mainly the United States and the UK. In 1929, the most severe global economic crisis broke out, which lasted until the mid-1933 and to the ground shook the entire system of capitalism. Industrial production during this crisis decreased by 46%, in the UK by 24%, in Germany by 41%, in France by 32%. Entry courses of industrial companies fell in the United States by 87%, in the UK by 48%, in Germany by 64%, in France by 60%. Colossal sizes reached unemployment. According to official data, in 1933, in 32 capitalist countries, there were 30 million unemployed, including 14 million. The global crisis of 1929-1933 showed that the contradiction between the social character of production and the private form of the assignment of production results has reached such acuity when the capitalist economy has reached It can no longer function more or less.

This circumstance required state intervention in the economy, using the methods of state impact on natural processes in the capitalist economy in order to avoid shocks, which accelerated the development of monopoly capitalism into state-monopolistic capitalism. State long-term programming of economic growth, carried out in many capitalist countries after the 2nd World War 1939-1945, as well as operational anticyclic regulation rendered a certain stabilizing effect on the development of capitalist countries. However, despite this, the features of the economic crisis clearly manifested themselves during this period in the United States, Great Britain, Canada, Germany, Italy. In most other capitalist countries, the permission of the accumulated contradictions of extended capitalist reproduction occurred in the form of decades of economic activity with a sharp drop in the rate of economic growth in preferentially converting the production of means of production and slowing the accumulation of capital. Most often in these three decades, economic crises were repeated in the USA - in 1948-1949, 1953 - 1954, 1957-1958, 1960-1961, 1969-1971 and 1973-1975 - with a drop in industrial production, respectively, by 17%, 9%, 13 %, 7%, 8% and 13%.

The first post-war global crisis began at the end of 1957 and lasted until mid-1958. It covered the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Belgium, the Netherlands and some other capitalist countries. Production of industrial products in developed capitalist countries decreased by 4%.

The unemployed army reached almost 10 million people. Relatively stable economic development of a number of capitalist countries in the 50s - 60s. He contributed to the emergence of bourgeois and revisionist theories, arguing that there is an alleged possibility of the uncruiscuous development of capitalism on the paths of improving the methods of state regulation of economic processes. However, capitalist validity soon denied these theories. In the early 70s. In the capitalist system, a whole series of violations of the reproduction process arose, which led to the deployment of the next global economic crisis, which began in the United States at the end of 1973, and then in 1974 and 1975 almost the entire capitalist world. This crisis in the breadth of the coverage of countries, duration, depth and destructive power significantly exceeded the global crisis of 1957-1958 and for a number of characteristics approached the crisis 1929-1933. During the crisis of industrial production, it was reduced to the United States, for example, by 13%, in Japan by 20%, in Germany by 22%, in the UK by 10%, in France by 13%, in Italy by 14%. Shares only for the year - from December 1973 to December 1974 - fell in the United States by 33%, in Japan by 17%, in Germany by 10%, in the UK by 56%, in France by 33%, in Italy by 28%. The number of bankruptcies in 1974 compared with 1973 increased in the United States by 6%, in Japan by 42%, in Germany by 40%, in the UK by 47%, in France by 27%. By the mid-1975, the number of fully unemployed in developed capitalist countries reached 15 million people. In addition, more than 10 million were translated into an incomplete working week or temporarily dismissed from enterprises. Everywhere there was a drop in real incomes of workers. For example, in the US, the total amount of real revenues of workers, which in 1950-70 grew by an average of about 3% per year, was reduced by 6% in the period 1973-75.

The special depth and duration of the global economic crisis of 1973-1975 are explained by the fact that he intertwined with the strongest inflationary processes in all capitalist countries, with currency and energy crises, exacerbation of food and environmental problems. The crisis of 1973-1975 demonstrated the limited possibilities of the bourgeois state to regulate the elemental economic processes, the movement of the economy in cycles. The inability of the governments of capitalist countries to prevent the crisis and find a way out of it speaks of the coming in the 70s. The crisis of the most state anticyclic regulation. With the significantly increased level of the composure of production, wide and deep internationalization of the economic life of the form and methods of anticyclic regulation, developed in the first years after the 2nd World War, ceased to be effective in the 70s. The main contradiction of capitalism was again manifested in acute form.

In the mid-1970s, the entire capitalist world was covered by a protracted and deep cyclic crisis of overproduction, accompanied by specific processes and phenomena. The crisis began to develop in the fall of 1973 in the United States, Great Britain and Germany. In the rest of the countries, it began slightly later. Such synchronicity of the crisis in the post-war period was observed for the first time. It is due to some new phenomena, which appeared in the economy of capitalist countries in the 70s, primarily this similarity of the technical and economic level of leading capitalist countries. The crisis of 1973-1975 was the first major post-war crisis for Japan, Germany and a number of other countries. An important feature of the crisis of 1973-1975 is that he intertwined with a variety of non-cyclic structural crises. These are the crisis of a shortage, not overproduction. They manifest themselves the lack of fuel, raw materials and food on the world market, which entails a significant increase in prices. Especially rapid raw materials and fuel prices increased in 1974. This growth entered the story called the new "Revolution of Prices".

The crisis of 1973-1975 proceeded in the conditions of the global currency crisis, manifested in a sharp decline in the dollar rate, the growth of prices for gold and the overall instability of international trade and financial relations. This crisis was first characterized by such a process as slotoflation: simultaneous decline in industrial production and price increase (inflation). Economic crises demonstrate the discrepancy between the production relations of the bourgeois society by its productive forces, they discover the transient nature of the capitalist method of production, which can develop only at the cost of periodic waste of material and human resources. They convince workers in the need to struggle for the new public systemFree from crisis, unemployment and exploitation - for socialism.

Features of crises:

v. crisis is inevitable,these are regular, naturally repeated stages of cyclical development of any system (exist and phases of the economic cycle);

v Crisis starts when the main elements of the system progress potential is mainly exhaustedand already born and begin the struggle elements of a new system representing the future cycle;

v crises may arise and how random result natural disaster or large error;

v. crisis progressive With all their pain, since the crisis performs three most important system functions:

§ a sharp weakening and elimination of obsolete (unwinable) elements of the dominant, but already exhausted their potential of the system;

§ clearing space for the approval of the elements (initially weak) new system, the future cycle;

§ Test for strength and transfer to the inheritance of those elements of the system that accumulate and go to the future.

v. crisis finitethey can precede either a new stage in the development of the system, or its death and decay;

v because crisis is unique, A varied causes and factors, which cause them, each time the exit from the crisis requires specific measures.

Types of economic crises:

v. regular(cyclic, periodic); repeated with a certain frequency (pattern), give rise to a new cycle; Characterized by what covers all areas of the economy, reaching great depths and duration;

v. irregular:

§ intermediate - does not allow the new cycle, but interrupts at a certain time the phase of lifting or revitalization; Less deep and less lengthy compared to periodic and, as a rule, is local in nature;

§ partial - covers not all of the economy, but only in some public reproduction;

§ Industry - covers one of the sectors of the national economy; Causes can be very different (from structural restructuring to overproduction); Such crises may be national and international;

§ Structural - is a violation of the law of proportional development of social production.

Classification of crises

The classification suggests and determines the assessment of the situation, the development and selection of positive management decisions. There is always dangerous crisis, even when it is not, therefore it is very important to know signs of the onset of crisis situations and evaluate the possibilities of their permission.

Crisis are classified according to different signs.

1. on the scale of manifestation:

§ General - cover the entire socio-economic system;

§ Local - cover only part of the socio-economic system.

2. On the problem of crisis:

§ Macrises are quite large volumes and scope of problems;

§ Microcrisis - cover only individual problems or a group of problems.

3. According to the structure of relations in the socio-economic system:

§ economic - reflect sharp contradictions in the economy of the country or the economic condition of the enterprise, the company, region, industry, etc. (crises of production and sales of goods; crisis of non-payment; loss of competitive advantages, etc.);

§ financial - characterize contradictions in the state of the financial system or financial capabilities of the company; crises of the monetary expression of economic processes (for example, bankruptcy);

§ social - arise when aggravating contradictions or colliding of the interests of various social groups (for example, an employee and employer, trade union and entrepreneur); Very often, social crises are a continuation and addition of economic crises, but may arise in themselves, although extremely rarely (for example, ethnic, national conflicts; discontent with working conditions);

§ political - in the political structure of society ("crisis of power"), crises of the realization of the interests of various groups; Such crises, as a rule, affect all aspects of society's life and transfer economic crises;

§ organizational - manifest as crises of separation of activities, distribution of functions and carrying out the activities of individual units (distribution crises), also under them It is understood by the exacerbation of organizational relations (business conflicts); Very often the result of such a crisis is excessive bureaucratization, organizational activities are paralyzed;

§ psychological - crises of the psychological state of man, manifest as a sense of uncertainty, fear; dissatisfaction with work, social status; stress;

§ technological - crises of new technological ideas when there is an obvious need for new technologies (NTP crises, the problem of using atomic energy);

4. By direct reasons for the occurrence:

§ Natural - caused by natural living conditions and human activity;

§ Public - crises of social relations;

§ Environmental - crises arising from the change in the natural conditions caused by human activity;

5. By character of manifestation:

§ predictable (natural) - arise as another stage of development, they can be predicted and are caused by objective reasons;

§ unexpected (random) - the results of errors in the management arising from natural phenomena;

§ obvious - proceed noticeably and easily detected;

§ hidden (latent) - a more dangerous type of crisis;

§ deep - proceeds are difficult and uneven and often destroy the structure of the socio-economic system;

§ Lungs - leak more consistently and painlessly, they can be foreseen and easily manage them;

6. On the time factor:

§ protracted - often they are a consequence of inability to control the crisis, misunderstanding the nature and nature of the crisis, its causes and possible consequences;

§ short-term.

The classification of crises is very important in their recognition, and, consequently, in the successful management of them.

Causes of crisis

Indicators crisis

When identifying the economic crisis at the enterprise help crisis Indicators:

Sources of information to ensure this work - Management data management, financial, production accounting

Phases crisis

Phases crisis, featuring the content, consequences and necessary measures to eliminate them:

Parameters and consequences of the crisis

Crisis parameters:

§ crisis issues;

§ Scale of the crisis;

§ Development area (coverage);

§ stage (phase) manifestation of the crisis;

§ causes of crisis;

§ Possible consequences of the crisis;

§ acuity of the crisis.

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Introduction

As is known, modern society seeks to continuously improve the level and living conditions that only sustainable the economic growth. However, observations show that long-term economic growth is not uniform, but is constantly interrupted by periods of economic instability and even crises.

Crises adversely affect almost everything and therefore they are trying to fight with them. But even in such developed countries, as the United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany and other countries of Western Europe, we do not see special success in the fight against economic crises.

The problem of economic crises is currently relevant in our country. Studies of economic crises at the global level, in particular in Russia, should help economists still learn painlessly and quickly leave them. In addition, it is very important to investigate the causes of economic cycles and find out how the amplitudes of their oscillations are smoothed to use these knowledge to regulate these cycles in order to have no devastating impact on the economy. Having learned how to smooth out economic cycles, people immediately make a result in the form of the economic prosperity of the country and personal well-being. And the main goal of economists is to achieve such results. But not everything is so simple. Scientists already for several centuries cannot find out the exact causes of cycles. Currently, there are only the theories of the emergence of economic cycles with which other economists agree or provide their point of view. However, this question remains open and to date.

Macroeconomic equilibrium in practice is rather an amazing accident, an exception confirming the rule: a market economy is unstable. The economic history of the last two centuries gives us a great many examples of this instability. During the periods of successful industrial development and universal economic prosperity, there were always periods of recession, accompanied by a drop in production and unemployment.

All of the above suggests that the problem of economic crises is one of the central in economic theory. I was interested in this problem not so long ago. As you know since 2008, the whole world covered the world financial crisis. He ran suddenly and worries the minds of many so far, since it is still unknown how long he will last and how strong the imprint will leave the countries on the economy. Fulfilling this course work, I set up the following goals: deeply understand the essence of economic crises, the reasons for the emergence of various types of these crises in the United States, Western Europe and in Russia, in their classification on various criteria, as well as in the consequences that they entail by itself.

The goals assumed the solution of some tasks. It should be analyzed, what measures were the leaders of certain states in the fight against this phenomenon, which were true, and which are doomed to failure. Also, of course, a separate head of the global financial crisis will be highlighted. I would like to analyze the reason for its occurrence, the measures taken by states to preserve the economies of countries, the consequences that, unfortunately, are inevitable anyway.

1. Types of economic crises and their dynamics in the Russian economy

1.1 Essence of economic crises. Causes of their occurrence

The crisis is a sharp disruption of an existing balance, due to the growing imbalances of economic indicators. At this gap, there is a decrease in total demand and, as a result, redundant offer. Since demand is reduced, problems arise with implementation finished productsAnd the unemployment increases. There is a reduction in all economic indicators. All types of income, including wages, investments, profits, as well as prices begin to decline rapidly. Due to paralyzed capital, which kept in the form of unrealized goods, there is an acute lack of funds for paying permanent costs, so the credit fee is growing rapidly - the rate of loan interest. Stakes and bonded courses, as well as other valuable papers They begin to decline, therefore the wave of bankruptcy and the mass closure of enterprises occurs. The crisis is completed with the onset of depression.

Since the production of goods passes the border, put by a narrow framework of the platforming supply of the population, the economic crisis acquires the nature of the universal overproduction of goods and overpowering capital. It completes one capitalist cycle and calculates the soil for the next way to straighten the disturbed proportions between the accumulation of capital and consumption, production of means of production and the production of consumption items. The economic crisis sharply exacerbates class contradictions, since all the severity of disasters being brought mainly on the shoulders of workers. This causes an increase in the class struggle, during which the self-consciousness of the working class is growing, its organization and cohesion.

Also, economic crises lead to huge economic losses for society, since during them a significant part of the production apparatus is idle, and hundreds of thousands and even millions of workers lose work. The timing of the offensive, the depth and duration of the economic crisis depend, above all, on the degree of violations of the basic proportions of reproduction during economic lifting. But, in addition, crises are capable of self-generated, since during their usually the fall in the purchasing power of workers (due to the growth of unemployment and reduction of working time), which further complicates the conditions for the sale of goods and prevents the restoration of temporary equilibrium between capital accumulation and consumption.

Although the cause of economic crises is single, each crisis has its own specific features due to the specific historical conditions in which it develops. The features of the era, and the level of development of capitalism, and the full range of economic and political factors acting in a particular country at the time of deploying the crisis are also affected.

1.2 Main types of crises

The initial category for understanding economic crises is the concept of an economic cycle. Economic cycle It is possible to determine as a time interval between the two qualitatively identical states of the economic conjuncture. Economic oscillations are deviations from the stable state of the most important parameters of the economy - the volume of production, price level, population employment, etc.

Economic cycles consist of four phases:

Phase of crisis;

Phase solution (depression);

The phase of revitalization;

Phase lifting;

Phase crisis:

1. The sale of industrial goods begins to occur with difficulty, and a significant part of the goods is not realized at all.

2. Fresh market prices for goods.

3. The mass and rate of profit firms decreases.

4. The investment activity of firms stops dv mind reasons:

1) Increasing the production of goods does not make sense, since the earlier goods produced are not yet implemented.

2) Sirgo's mass decreases, and, therefore, the financial capabilities of firms to expand production are reduced.

5. Firms cease to return loans, and indeed the crisis of payments begins. As a result, mass bankruptcy of firms and banks begins, and the interest rate for loans becomes very high, lifting from 10-15% to 30-50% per annum. And even under this high rate of interest, banks are issued loans only to those who are trusted.

6. Unemployment is significantly increasing.

7. The standard of living of the country's citizens is noticeably reduced.

8. Volume production volumes are sharply falling.

9. Chronic simple production facilities begins (up to 60-70%).

Finally, the economic crisis reaches its lower point, on which the volume of gross national production volumes and market prices do not decrease and unemployment does not increase. Stagnation begins (recession) when production stops.

Phase solution (depression):

Market economy independently comes out of the crisis. Firms by any means are trying to receive at least some profit for their products. And then the firms begin a native microsystroy to reduce production costs and get an average profit at these low prices. For this company, they mobilize all the financial resources they have, for any percentage, they take loans from commercial banks and begin to produce products that are in demand in the market, while the firms refuse to issue unprofitable products. That is, the structure of the production of these firms is fundamentally changing, but for all this they need to update their fixed capital. Therefore begin investment activities Firms, the demand for investment goods is beginning to increase, and in other firms begins to expand on the technological chain, and it means that the demand and market economy increases gradually from the depression phase and the third phase begins - the phase of revival. In addition, the crisis clears the market economy from all weak firms, which at the normal time were not very profitable.

Revolution phase:

Her characteristic feature It is a mass update of fixed capital.

This phase continues to operate until the pre-crisis level of the production of gross national product is reached. And when the massive update of fixed capital begins and a significant expansion of production, the phase of revitalization goes to the lifting phase.

Lifting phase:

1. The rate of economic growth increases and the volume of gross national product production increases.

2. Trade goes Boyko and market prices for many products are rising.

3. Increases the mass and the rate of profit firms.

4. The market economy gradually comes to the full employment of all available production facilities.

5. Salary begins to grow.

6. Due to the renewal of fixed capital, labor productivity increases and labor is increased on this basis.

7. The amount of unemployed decreases.

According to the criterion of duration in the economic literature, three types of economic cycles are distinguished: large (long waves) - 45-60 years; Average - 7-13 years; Small (short) - 3-4 years.

The material basis of small cycles is the mass update of long-term goods. In small cycles, the crisis is an impetus for modernization and technical improvement of production, and, consequently, to the expansion of the market. The average (industrial) cycles are associated with a change in demand for equipment and structures, and the demand itself, its value and direction depends, in turn, from the introduction of new technical and technological advances, which is usually carried out for 7-13 years. The material basis of medium cycles is the mass renewal of fixed capital, as a result of which production is improved. However, at some stage, further improvement of production becomes impossible, a different system comes to replace the old technical system, the improvement of which occurs for several medium cycles. This technical system also exhausts itself, and comes a new technological method of production, the length of which corresponds to a large economic cycle (long wave). In large cycles, crisis processes require the introduction of basic innovations. This stimulates not only production growth, but also the structural restructuring of the entire economy and the mechanism of its functioning. Consequently, large cycles are characterized not only by the expansion of the market, but also by the creation of new markets.

It is generally recognized that there is a relationship between all types of economic cycles. Long waves Double shorter cycles. Each long cycle is formed, first of all, as a result of the interaction of scientific and technological progress on one side and the entire system of the economy on the other side.

Both small, and large cycles in the economy of developed countries move relatively synchronously, forming world cycles. Small cycles are an organic part of large cycles. If they occur on the downstream phase of large cycles, then they are characterized by a depth of the crisis, the duration of depression, the weakness of the rise. For the upper phase of large cycles, small cycles are characterized with strong lifts and weak depressions.

The economic crisis is one of the phases of the cycle, and it can also be classified for several signs:

1) two types are distinguished by the nature of the violation of the reproduction proportions:

The crisis of overproduction of goods is the release of an unnecessary amount of useful things that are not trash.

The shortcoming crisis of goods is the sharp of their lack for the satisfaction of the effective supply of the population.

2) The scale of equilibrium disorders in economic systems crises are made to divide into common (crises covering all national economy) and partial (crises covering any sector or branch of the economy).

So, the financial crisis is a deep disorder of public finances. It manifests itself in constant budget deficits (when state expenses significantly exceed its income). The extreme manifestation of the financial crisis is the insolvency of the state for foreign loans. Monetary crisis - the shock of the monetary system. There is a sharp reduction in bank loans, the massive seizure of deposits and the collapse of banks, the pursuit of the population and entrepreneurs for cash, the fall in the campaigns of shares and bonds, as well as the norms of the banking percentage.

The currency crisis is expressed in impairment of the currency of individual countries (the lack of foreign "solid" currencies, the exhaustion of foreign exchange reserves in banks, the fall in exchange rates).

Exchange crisis is a sharp decline in securities courses, a significant reduction in their emissions, deep decline in the stock exchange.

The agricultural crisis is a sharp deterioration in the sale of agricultural products (the fall in prices for agricultural products).

The structural crisis is due to a violation of the normal relations between the industries (one-sided development of one industries to the detriment of others, the deterioration of the situation in certain types of production.

3) on the regularity of the violation of equilibrium in the economy, crises are divided into:

Periodic crises are repeated regularly through some time intervals.

Intermediates do not give the beginning of the full business cycle and interrupted at some stage; are less deep and less long.

Irregular crises have their special causes of occurrence.

Economic crises have two sides. One of them is destructive. It is associated with the decisive elimination of the existing abnormal proportions in the farm. Often, large surplus goods are destroyed.

Another side is wellness. It is inevitable, because during the depression, the fall in prices makes production disadvantageous: it does not give usual, medium profits. Exit from this deadlock helps update fixed capital (machines, equipment). This allows you to reduce the production of products, to make it sufficiently profitable. As a result, the crisis clears the market economy from all weak firms.

Founders of classical economic science - Adam Smith and David Ricardo argued that in the scale of society, the proposal and demand is always balanced, and overproduction becomes impossible. Unlike the mentioned classics, Thomas Malthus and Simond Sissondi recognized the inevitability of crises and tied them with insufficient cumulative demand for produced goods. At the same time, Malthus considered the source of insufficient demand for the surplus of capital, and Sissomdi - the abundance of workers and capitalists: first - as a result of a slower growth of income compared with the growth of commodity masses, and the second - due to the reduction of consumption for the accumulation of capital. Karl Marx also considered the cyclicity of the patch of the capitalist system, testifying to its doomed, and the cause of crises was mainly the contradiction of capitalism between the social character of production and the private-capitalist form of assignment.

Problems of exit of the crisis

The instability of financial systems, the exacerbation of social problems and the slowdown in economic growth forcing the governments of many countries to take various measures to stabilize the situation and stimulate the economy, including fiscal policy measures. As the historical experience of stimulating economic policies in periods of crises shows, in most cases, monetary policy measures played a major role due to their greater efficiency and relatively higher efficiency. Nevertheless, a discretionary fiscal policy can also be used, but with some restrictions, especially in emerging economies.

Note - a discretionary fiscal policy carried out by the government, this is a deliberate change in taxes and volume of government spending in order to: ensure the production of inflationary gross internal product With complete employment and stimulating economic growth.

I note that the built-in, automatic fiscal policy stabilizers are considered relatively effective and, which is important, adequately working both in the conditions of the recession and in the case of "overheating" of the economy. In Russia, they are quite sensitive to changes in economic conditions, including outside the country's borders - in the period of slowing down economic growth in the world, the tax burden on the oil sector decreases significantly, since energy prices are reduced to which the main fees in the oil sector are tied.

In countries with a developing economy, stimulating fiscal policy leads to an increase in the deficit and, therefore, public debt. In this case, in the periods of "overheating", the restraining fiscal policy is not so active, that is, it turns out to be asymmetric, shifted towards stimulation, which also leads to constant debt extension. The growth of public debt in emerging market countries is an unfavorable factor and increases the risks for a given country in the future. In particular, this may lead to external borrowing rates for such countries are overestimated, additionally exacerbating the situation. Another serious problem is to ensure the "temporary" of stimulating fiscal policy. If the crisis period has been reduced taxes or the state has assumed new expenditure obligations, even when moving to the recovery stage, such changes are often politically difficult. Therefore, in the event of a decision on certain stimulating fiscal policy measures, the government needs to thoroughly analyze the possibilities of folding them in the future. One of the most important factors for the effectiveness of the anti-crisis fiscal policy is the targeting of the measures taken, whether the measures of social support or stimulating the real sector enterprises.

In front of our country, the following tasks are facing fiscal policies and requiring fairly fast decisions. The use of monetary and fiscal policy measures to stabilize the situation in the country's financial market. As already noted, the solution of this task is mainly ensured by monetary policy measures, however, fiscal measures can also be used, especially in the presence of significant reserves (including oil and gas funds). However, the key question here is: how to determine the optimal measures and the amount of budget funds that would have positive influence On the financial sector, but would not lead to unfavorable average and long-term consequences - inflation, having a sharp increase in budget deficit, etc.?

The use of fiscal policy measures to solve acute social problems. In the context of the global financial crisis, economic instability and deceleration of economic growth at the simultaneous high level of inflation, Russia, like other countries, may face various social problems. On the one hand, it is a decrease in the standard of living of citizens, the growth of unemployment, and on the other - the slowdown in the development of the sectors of the social sphere. Here is the choice of stimulating policies measures to help, you received exactly those who really need it, and budget expenditures did not lead to an additional increase in inflation. Support for the real sector of the economy in a possible recession. To avoid a sharp decline in the real sector of the economy (due to adverse external conditions and internal instability) and stimulating measures from the state are needed and social and social consequences.

When developing anti-crisis programs, it is necessary to take into account the accumulated global experience in combating crises. It demonstrates that assistance should be provided with only those companies and banks that experience temporary difficulties, but retain solvency. Practice proves that the indiscriminate provision of state support to enterprises and banks without reference to the state of their balance sheets does not speed up the exit from the crisis and does not mitigate its consequences. On the contrary, such a policy increases losses from the current crisis and increases the likelihood of a new crisis in the future, since undermines the incentives of economic agents to conduct responsible policies in real estimation of all risks. In addition, the cost of support provided should be distributed between the state and the owners of the saved companies. If the state fully takes all support to itself, it actually unreasonably transfers the funds of taxpayers to the owners of companies.

A separate discussion deserves the issue of increasing the share of state ownership in the financial sector on a global scale. Within the framework of the anti-crisis programs, its considerable part has passed from private owners under state control. By the end of 2008 In most developed countries, government has become the largest owners of financial institutions: under their control, it turned out to be approximately part of this sector. A natural question arises: if the excessive tendency of private banks to risks ultimately led to a crisis and demanded emergency measures from the state whether the course should be taken to increase his role as a financial intermediary?

The experience of a number of countries allows us to give a reasonable answer to this question. Numerous intercountry studies convincingly indicate that private banks are significantly more efficient than government, distribute financial resources in the economy, have a smaller margin (the difference between the cost of attracted and credit resources provided) and, moreover, reduce the degree of financial instability (including the probability of banking crisis). That is why many countries seek to privatize their banks. The analysis confirms that after privatization, indicators of the efficiency of banks are significantly improved. Thus, although the state is forced to actively intervene in the activities of the financial sector, when the threat of a systemic crisis arises, but already at this stage it should not only think about reflecting the momentary threats, but also have a long-term plan for the leading role of the private sector.

The global financial crisis revealed the need to carry out joint coordinated actions by the governments of developed and developing countries to overcome and reform international financial institutions. This, in particular, is stated in the Declaration of the G20 Summit on Financial Markets and the World Economy, which took place on November 15 in Washington.

A group of twenty is the format of international meetings of finance ministers and heads of central banks representing 20 economies. It is a forum for cooperation and consultations on issues related to the international financial system.

The Declaration provides instructions to governments of the G20 and the Expert Community to prepare proposals for joint actions aimed at overcoming the global crisis. Among the measures to be implemented in medium Term Perspectiveshould be selected as follows:

Development of new rules for regulating financial markets, as well as requirements for macroeconomic parameters for the development of countries in the example of Maastricht agreements;

Expanding the financial capabilities of the IMF, currently insufficient to solve problems in the crisis situation;

Raising the role of "G20 and strengthening its status; "G8" and "group of twenty" must complement each other;

Note - The G8 is an international club that unites the governments of the most industrially developed democracies of the world.

Creation of a unified system for regulating the activities of rating agencies;

Creation in the financial sphere of a new international organization (or the transformation of one of the existing), whose members would adhere to uniform rules in the implementation of regulatory, financial, and possibly fiscal policy. Currently, States are united around the Financial Stability Forum. However, it does not include developing countries, including BRIC countries.

Note - Brick is a well-established abbreviation from the name of four rapid developing countries: Brazil, Russia, India and China.

Today we need an international authority, whose recommendations would be mandatory.

2. Practical part

Option number 2.

Specify the financial condition of the enterprise in the following areas:

1) analysis of solvency and liquidity;

2) analysis of financial stability;

3) the assessment of the capital invested in the property of the enterprise;

4) analysis of profitability;

5) Analysis of the company's provision by its own working capital.

Perform the probability of bankruptcy. Word findings based on the results of the analysis and develop recommendations for financial recovery.

Gains and losses report

For the period from 01/01/2008 to December 31, 2008

Analysis of solvency and liquidity

Calculation of liquidity indicators:

· The ratio of absolute liquidity \u003d cash + short-term financial investments / current obligations;

· Coefficient current liquidity = Current assets - VAT on acquired values \u200b\u200b/ current obligations;

· Fast liquidity ratio \u003d Cash + receivables / current obligations.

Table 1. Calculation of liquidity indicators

The absolute liquidity ratio in 2008 matters below the normative (from 0.2 to 0.4), which indicates a high financial risk. The organization lacks the most liquid assets to cover current obligations. The value of the current liquidity coefficient is also less than the regulatory value (? 2). It shows the excess of the current obligations of the organization over its current assets. This is due to a large share. short-term obligations In the structure of financing the organization. The rapid liquidity ratio is also lower than the norm (from 0.5 to 1), which indicates a lack of liquid assets in which the most urgent obligations can be paid off.

Calculation of solvency indicators

The security indicator of the debtor's obligations to its assets testifies to exceeding the amount of obligations over the magnitude non-current assets. The value of the indicator tends to increase, which is a positive factor in the development of the organization.

The value of the solvency indicator on current liabilities suggests that the average annual revenue covers the current organization's obligations.

Analysis of the liquidity of the balance of the organization at the beginning of the year (Appendix No. 1);

Analysis of the liquidity of the organization's balance sheet at the end of the year (Appendix No. 2).

The table shows that the magnitude of the most urgent obligations of P1 significantly exceeds the magnitude of the most liquid assets A1, which indicates the low level of the absolute liquidity of the organization. The organization is forced to finance part of the most urgent obligations due to less liquid than cash assets, while the magnitude of the employed assets of the A4 organization at the beginning of the year exceeds the permanent assets of P4, i.e. There is surplus of difficult to assets, which may be associated with the implementation of investment investments.

The balance of the organization is not liquid enough, since the main liquidity conditions are unsecured.

Analysis of financial sustainability

Calculation of financial stability indicators

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Federal State Budgetary Education

Establishment of higher vocational education

Orenburg Agricultural University

Institute of Continuing Vocational Education

Department Professional

education and Applied Economics

Course work

by discipline: "Macroeconomics

on the topic: "Essence, species and features of economic crises

Performed student 11 groups 1 course

specialty: Economy

Saktaganova Dina

Checked: Arinushkina I.S.

Orenburg 2013

Introduction

2.2 Main types of crises

3. World Financial Crisis

Conclusion

Literature

Introduction

As you know, modern society seeks to continually improve the level and living conditions that can only provide sustainable economic growth. However, observations show that long-term economic growth is not uniform, but is constantly interrupted by periods of economic instability and even crises.

Crises adversely affect almost everything and therefore they are trying to fight with them. But even in such developed countries, as the United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany and other countries of Western Europe, we do not see special success in the fight against economic crises.

The problem of economic crises is currently relevant in our country. Studies of economic crises at the global level, in particular in Russia, should help economists still learn painlessly and quickly leave them. In addition, it is very important to investigate the causes of economic cycles and find out how the amplitudes of their oscillations are smoothed to use these knowledge to regulate these cycles in order to have no devastating impact on the economy. Having learned how to smooth out economic cycles, people immediately make a result in the form of the economic prosperity of the country and personal well-being. And the main goal of economists is to achieve such results. But not everything is so simple. Scientists already for several centuries cannot find out the exact causes of cycles. Currently, there are only the theories of the emergence of economic cycles with which other economists agree or provide their point of view. However, this question remains open and to date.

The famous American economist Elvin Hansen, who devoted a lot of his work to the study of economic cycles, so expressed this regard: "Throughout the history of literature on economic cycles, various economists again expressed the opinion that the origin of cyclic oscillations remains an intractable mystery"

Macroeconomic equilibrium in practice is rather an amazing accident, an exception confirming the rule: a market economy is unstable. The economic history of the last two centuries gives us a great many examples of this instability. During the periods of successful industrial development and universal economic prosperity, there were always periods of recession, accompanied by a drop in production and unemployment.

All of the above suggests that the problem of economic crises is one of the central in economic theory. As you know since 2008, the whole world covered the global financial and economic crisis. He ran suddenly and worries the minds of many so far, since it is still unknown how long he will last and how strong the imprint will leave the countries on the economy. Fulfilling this course work, I set up the following goals: deeply understand the essence of economic crises, the reasons for the emergence of various types of these crises in the United States, Western Europe and in Russia, in their classification on various criteria, as well as in the consequences that they entail by itself.

The goals assumed the solution of some tasks. It should be analyzed, what measures were the leaders of certain states in the fight against this phenomenon, which were true, and which are doomed to failure. Of course, it will be discussed about the "great depression" of the United States - the crisis, the consequences of which were touched upon the whole world. In this paper, the causes of the global energy crisis of the 70s will be disassembled, which had no less negative importance for the economies of many states than the "Great Depression."

Also, of course, a separate head of the global financial crisis will be highlighted. I would like to analyze the reason for its occurrence, the measures taken by states to preserve the economies of countries, the consequences that, unfortunately, are inevitable anyway.

In the process of writing work, periodic printing materials, economic literature were used. Almost all literature was found by me in electronic form. The work consists of administration, three chapters, conclusion, literature of literature.

economic Crisis World Financial

1. The history of economic crises

1.1 History of the concept of "Economic Crisis"

The concept of the crisis has many levels and interpretations. The expression "crisis" comes from the Greek word "crisis", which means "sentence, a solution to any question, or in a dubious situation." Also can mean "output, a solution of the conflict (to the military)". But the current meaning of the word most frequent use finds at hippocratic and doctors: and the crisis means the decisive phase of the development of the disease. In this sense, it comes to "crisis" when the disease enhances the intensity or goes into another disease or at all ends with death. For example, the concise wording is given by Kozellek: the crisis is "a barely measurable turning point in which the solution is either death or life." In the XVII-XVIII century, the concept of the crisis began to be applied and in relation to the processes occurring in society, as the military, political crises, and the almost unchanged value of the crisis taken from medicine was used. Finally, in the nineteenth century, the value passed into the economy. "Classic" economic concept The crisis formed at the time means the not desired and dramatic phase in the capitalist economic system, characterized by oscillations and negative phenomena, interference. In this sense, the concept of crisis for a long time occupied a strong place in the scheme of the theory of conjunctions in the development of the economy. So the cyclic scheme of spitschoff contains the steps: the recession is the first lift - the second lift - peak - the lack of capital - the crisis. But this definition does not take into account many different schemes and stages of the development and operation of the economy. Therefore, the "classic" definition of the crisis was replaced by a more multi-valued concept of "economic crisis". We are talking about the economic crisis to determine the sacrepa if "the not desired state of economic relations arises, the critical situation of large segments of the population and producing sectors of the economy."

Sombart determines the economic crisis as "an economic negative phenomenon in which the hazardous hazard arises for economic life, reality." Microeconomics uses the concept of "enterprise crisis". In a broad sense, this means a process that threatens the existence of an enterprise. The concept of "enterprise crisis / crisis in the enterprise" describes various phenomena in modern economic literature, from simply interference in the functioning of an enterprise through various conflicts up to the destruction of an enterprise, which at least for this enterprise can be characterized as a catastrophic.

The enterprise crisis is a turning point in the sequence of events and action processes. Typical for the crisis situation is two options out of it, or this is liquidation of the enterprise as an extreme form or successful overcoming crisis. The most complete presentation of the signs of the crisis gives us Wiener and Kaan.

With the help of 12 signs, the Winera and Kaan managed to describe the concept of the crisis: "Crises: This is a often a turning point in the developing change of events and actions; they often form the situation in which the urgency / urgency of action plays a great importance; they are threatening goals and values; The consequences are difficult for the future participants involved in it; they consist of events that create new conditions for achieving success; they bring uncertainty in assessing the situation and in the development of the necessary alternatives to overcome the crisis; they reduce control over events and their influence; they reduce The time to a minimum is caused by stress and fear of participants; information available to participants is usually insufficient; they cause a lack of available at the time participants; they change relationships between the participants; they increase the tension, especially in political crisis, which affect the nation. " These listed features are quite enough in order to fully characterize the crisis. Economic crises during which a violent restoration of the basic proportions of reproduction occur during the development of the capitalist economy. Economic crises are manifested in the absolute fall in production, reducing capital investments, the growth of unemployment, increasing the number of bankruptcies of firms, falling the course of shares and other economic shocks.

The cause of economic crises is the main contradiction of capitalism - between the social character of production and the private-capitalist form of assigning its results. The division of labor, the production specialization, the cooperation in the industry associate capitalist enterprises into a single economic mechanism, for the normal functioning of which it is necessary to comply with the entire economy of certain proportions between the industries, the production of means of production and the production of consumption items, between the accumulation of capital and consumption. But the domination of private property generated by her anarchy of production, cruel competition, labor operation of capital leads to a constant violation of reproduction proportions. Some of these disorders are eliminated spontaneously, others are enhanced and accumulated.

In the system of disproportions of reproduction arising during the economic development of reproduction, there is always a violation of proportions between the accumulation of capital and consumption. The desire of capital for self-exploration, the pursuit of profit is ensured due to slow growth (and sometimes even reductions) of the income and the consumption of workers. The contradiction arising from here between production and consumption accumulates, comes to an explosive point and becomes, as a rule, the immediate cause of economic crises.

1.2 The theory of crisis development in the global economy

By itself, the economic crisis does not arise nowhere and does not go anywhere. It is an integral part of the fact that in economic theory is called a cycle. The cyclicality of the development of the economy is proved by time. Economic overproduction crises are organically inherent in capitalism and inevitably accompany him in historical development. Popular in the middle of our century the theory of state regulation of the economy in order to prevent crises, which allowed the short-term smoothing of adverse trends, in the long-term aspect did not meet expectations, failed to resist the general trend of the cyclical development of the market economy.

The objective causes of each crisis are always in the preceding development of the economy at other stages of the cycle. The beginning of the periodic economic crises put the crisis of 1825 in the UK, where capitalist industries used to have developed before. relations. The next crisis is the crisis of 1836, which covered the United Kingdom and the United States - 2 countries, closely related economically. In 1847 there was another crisis, which raised almost all countries in Europe. In its nature, he approached the global crisis.

The first global economic crisis took place in 1857 and almost in all countries it was the deepest crisis since their entry into the capitalist pathway. In the US, the production of cast iron decreased during the crisis by 20%, the consumption of cotton by 27%. In the UK, the shipbuilding was most affected, where the production volume fell by 26%. In Germany, 25% reduced the consumption of cast iron; in France - by 13% of cast iron wax and for the same consumption of cotton; In Russia, the smelting of the cast iron fell by 17%, the production of cotton fabrics - by 14%.

The new economic crisis of 1866 was particularly acute in the UK, but the rest of the countries affected slightly. The next global crisis began in 1873 from Austria and Germany. It was the most long-lasting crisis in the history of capitalism: he ended in 1878, when the United King Engine fell into the orbit. The economic crisis of 1882 covered mainly US and France; During the crisis of 1890, the greatest economic shocks were observed in Germany, the USA and France. The 1900-1903 crisis became a kind of frontier between the era of the capitalism of free competition and the era of the imperialism. During this crisis, the United States and Germany was particularly affected, to a lesser extent of the United Kingdom and France. Heavy was economic situation and Russia, where the economic crisis coincided with the crime.

Bourgeois ideologists hoped that with the emergence of monopolies of capitalist, systematically organizing production in their enterprises, economic crises will disappear or at least soften. But that did not happen. The first economic crisis of the Epoch of Imperialism - the 1907 crisis was no less destructive than previous ones. Especially he touched upon the US economy. In art. "Marxism and Revisionism" V.I. Lenin wrote that the crisis of 1907 was a bright proof that crises remained an inevitable component of the capitalist system. At the same time, Lenin indicated that in the era of imperialism, "the forms, the sequence, picture of individual crises changed.".

The economic crisis of 1920-1921 covered mainly the United States and the UK. In 1929, the most severe global economic crisis broke out, which lasted until the mid-1933 and to the ground shook the entire system of capitalism. Industrial production during this crisis decreased by 46%, in the UK by 24%, in Germany by 41%, in France by 32%. Entry courses of industrial companies fell in the United States by 87%, in the UK by 48%, in Germany by 64%, in France by 60%. Colossal sizes reached unemployment. According to official data, in 1933, in 32 capitalist countries, there were 30 million unemployed, including 14 million. The global crisis of 1929-1933 showed that the contradiction between the social character of production and the private form of the assignment of production results has reached such acuity when the capitalist economy has reached It can no longer function more or less.

This circumstance required state intervention in the economy, using the methods of state impact on natural processes in the capitalist economy in order to avoid shocks, which accelerated the development of monopoly capitalism into state-monopolistic capitalism. State long-term programming of economic growth, carried out in many capitalist countries after the 2nd World War 1939-1945, as well as operational anticyclic regulation rendered a certain stabilizing effect on the development of capitalist countries. However, despite this, the features of the economic crisis clearly manifested themselves during this period in the United States, Great Britain, Canada, Germany, Italy. In most other capitalist countries, the permission of the accumulated contradictions of extended capitalist reproduction occurred in the form of decades of economic activity with a sharp drop in the rate of economic growth in preferentially converting the production of means of production and slowing the accumulation of capital. Most often in these three decades, economic crises were repeated in the USA - in 1948-1949, 1953 - 1954, 1957-1958, 1960-1961, 1969-1971 and 1973-1975 - with a drop in industrial production, respectively, by 17%, 9%, 13 %, 7%, 8% and 13%.

The first post-war global crisis began at the end of 1957 and lasted until mid-1958. It covered the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, Belgium, the Netherlands and some other capitalist countries. Production of industrial products in developed capitalist countries decreased by 4%.

The unemployed army reached almost 10 million people. Relatively stable economic development of a number of capitalist countries in the 50s - 60s. He contributed to the emergence of bourgeois and revisionist theories, arguing that there is an alleged possibility of the uncruiscuous development of capitalism on the paths of improving the methods of state regulation of economic processes. However, capitalist validity soon denied these theories. In the early 70s. In the capitalist system, a whole series of violations of the reproduction process arose, which led to the deployment of the next global economic crisis, which began in the United States at the end of 1973, and then in 1974 and 1975 almost the entire capitalist world. This crisis in the breadth of the coverage of countries, duration, depth and destructive power significantly exceeded the global crisis of 1957-1958 and for a number of characteristics approached the crisis 1929-1933. During the crisis of industrial production, it was reduced to the United States, for example, by 13%, in Japan by 20%, in Germany by 22%, in the UK by 10%, in France by 13%, in Italy by 14%. Shares only for the year - from December 1973 to December 1974 - fell in the United States by 33%, in Japan by 17%, in Germany by 10%, in the UK by 56%, in France by 33%, in Italy by 28%. The number of bankruptcies in 1974 compared with 1973 increased in the United States by 6%, in Japan by 42%, in Germany by 40%, in the UK by 47%, in France by 27%. By the mid-1975, the number of fully unemployed in developed capitalist countries reached 15 million people. In addition, more than 10 million were translated into an incomplete working week or temporarily dismissed from enterprises. Everywhere there was a drop in real incomes of workers. For example, in the US, the total amount of real revenues of workers, which in 1950-70 grew by an average of about 3% per year, was reduced by 6% in the period 1973-75.

The special depth and duration of the global economic crisis of 1973-1975 are explained by the fact that he intertwined with the strongest inflationary processes in all capitalist countries, with currency and energy crises, exacerbation of food and environmental problems. The crisis of 1973-1975 demonstrated the limited possibilities of the bourgeois state to regulate the elemental economic processes, the movement of the economy in cycles. The inability of the governments of capitalist countries to prevent the crisis and find a way out of it speaks of the coming in the 70s. The crisis of the most state anticyclic regulation. With the significantly increased level of the composure of production, wide and deep internationalization of the economic life of the form and methods of anticyclic regulation, developed in the first years after the 2nd World War, ceased to be effective in the 70s. The main contradiction of capitalism was again manifested in acute form.

In the mid-1970s, the entire capitalist world was covered by a protracted and deep cyclic crisis of overproduction, accompanied by specific processes and phenomena. The crisis began to develop in the fall of 1973 in the United States, Great Britain and Germany. In the rest of the countries, it began slightly later. Such synchronicity of the crisis in the post-war period was observed for the first time. It is due to some new phenomena, which appeared in the economy of capitalist countries in the 70s, primarily this similarity of the technical and economic level of leading capitalist countries. The crisis of 1973-1975 was the first major post-war crisis for Japan, Germany and a number of other countries. An important feature of the crisis of 1973-1975 is that he intertwined with a variety of non-cyclic structural crises. These are the crisis of a shortage, not overproduction. They manifest themselves the lack of fuel, raw materials and food on the world market, which entails a significant increase in prices. Especially rapid raw materials and fuel prices increased in 1974. This growth entered the story called the new "Revolution of Prices".

The crisis of 1973-1975 proceeded in the conditions of the global currency crisis, manifested in a sharp decline in the dollar rate, the growth of prices for gold and the overall instability of international trade and financial relations. This crisis was first characterized by such a process as slotoflation: simultaneous decline in industrial production and price increase (inflation). Economic crises demonstrate the discrepancy between the production relations of the bourgeois society by its productive forces, they discover the transient nature of the capitalist method of production, which can develop only at the cost of periodic waste of material and human resources. They convince the workers in the need to struggle for a new social system, free from crises, unemployment and exploitation, for socialism.

1.3 Separation of the crisis process at the stage

The necessary separation of the crisis process at various stages is primarily associated in order to determine the point and time of applying measures to influence the crisis, prevent and overcoming the crisis. Kristek characterizes the stages of the crisis process in terms of opportunities, the potential to overcome the crisis and early alerts about it. Separate stages of the crisis process on a crust can be described as follows:

Stage: Potential crisis. The crisis of the enterprise as the process finds its beginning in the phase of potential, i.e. Only possible but not yet a real crisis of the enterprise. And due to the lack of reliable symptoms of the crisis, this state of the enterprise is characterized as quasinormal, i.e. Practically as a condition in which the company is constantly located, and it gives the time the point of reference to the emergence of the crisis in the enterprise.

Stage: Latent / Hidden Crisis. This phase of the crisis process is characterized by a hidden already existing or highly likely to the beginning of the crisis, the impact of which is not determined by the enterprise available to the company with standard tools. But the use of special methods of early recognition allows at this stage to have an active impact on the latent crisis with the help of warning events. In general, at this stage, the enterprise has the potential to overcome the crisis as a rule is not used in full. The main emphasis here lies in the application of early warning / recognition systems.

Stage: acute overcoming crisis. At this stage, the immediate feeling of the enterprise emanating from the crisis of negative impact is begins. At the same time, the intensity of real, against the enterprise directed destructive effects is enhanced, which causes a sharp shortage, time pressure, urgency / urgency of decision-making. With further reduction of alternative action options due to the exhaustion of the existing time, the requirements for finding effective ways of solving problems (factors overcoming crisis) increase. At this stage, the mobilization of increasing forces of the enterprise is required to overcome the crisis and are exhausted fully available for reserves to overcome the crisis. At this stage, there is still the possibility of overcoming (curbing) of the acute crisis, because The existing crisis overcoming potential is sufficient to cope with the crisis. Increase to the limit of the requirement to overcome the crisis, and measures to overcome the crisis should show their effect on improving the situation for a very insignificant period of time available at the disposal.

Stage: A sharp not overcome crisis. If it fails to curb the acute crisis, the enterprise enters the last stage of the development of the crisis process, which ends with the liquidation of the enterprise. At this stage, the requirements for overcoming crisis significantly exceed the available potential. Overcoming the crisis process is not possible, especially due to the lack of or unsuccessful measures, actions, due to the extremely strong time pressure and due to the increasing intensity of destructive impacts directed against the enterprise.

2. Economic crises and their types

2.1 Essence of economic crises. Causes of their occurrence

The crisis is a sharp disruption of an existing balance, due to the growing imbalances of economic indicators. At this gap, there is a decrease in total demand and, as a result, redundant offer. Since demand is reduced, problems arise with the sale of finished products, and unemployment increases. There is a reduction in all economic indicators. All types of income, including wages, investments, profits, as well as prices begin to decline rapidly. Due to paralyzed capital, which kept in the form of unrealized goods, there is an acute lack of funds for paying permanent costs, so the credit fee is growing rapidly - the rate of loan interest. Stakes and bonded courses, as well as other securities begin to decline, therefore the wave of bankruptcy and mass closure of enterprises occurs. The crisis is completed with the onset of depression.

Since the production of goods passes the border, put by a narrow framework of the platforming supply of the population, the economic crisis acquires the nature of the universal overproduction of goods and overpowering capital. It completes one capitalist cycle and calculates the soil for the next way to straighten the impaired proportions between the accumulation of capital and consumption, the production of funds, production and production of consumption items. The economic crisis sharply exacerbates class contradictions, since all the severity of disasters being brought mainly on the shoulders of workers. This causes an increase in the class struggle, during which the self-consciousness of the working class is growing, its organization and cohesion.

Also, economic crises lead to huge economic losses for society, since during them a significant part of the production apparatus is idle, and hundreds of thousands and even millions of workers lose work. The timing of the offensive, the depth and duration of the economic crisis depend, above all, on the degree of violations of the basic proportions of reproduction during economic lifting. But, in addition, crises are capable of self-generated, since during their usually the fall in the purchasing power of workers (due to the growth of unemployment and reduction of working time), which further complicates the conditions for the sale of goods and prevents the restoration of temporary equilibrium between capital accumulation and consumption.

Although the cause of economic crises is single, each crisis has its own specific features due to the specific historical conditions in which it develops. The features of the era, and the level of development of capitalism, and the full range of economic and political factors acting in a particular country at the time of deploying the crisis are also affected.

2.2 Main types of crises

The initial category for understanding economic crises is the concept of an economic cycle. The economic cycle can be defined as the time interval between the two qualitatively identical states of the economic situation. Economic oscillations are deviations from the stable state of the most important parameters of the economy - the volume of production, price level, population employment, etc.

Economic cycles consist of four phases:

ØFase crisis;

Ø phase solution (depression);

Ø Faise revival;

Ø FAZ lifting;

Phase crisis:

The sale of industrial goods begins to occur with difficulty, and a significant part of the goods are not implemented at all.

Market prices for goods are lowered.

The mass and rate of profit firms decreases.

The investment activity of firms stops for two reasons:

) There is no point in increasing the production of goods, since the earlier goods have not yet been implemented.

) The mass of the profits of firms decreases, and, therefore, the financial capabilities of firms to expand production are reduced.

Firms cease to return loans, and indeed the crisis of payments begins. As a result, mass bankruptcy of firms and banks begins, and the interest rate for loans becomes very high, lifting from 10-15% to 30-50% per annum. And even under this high rate of interest, banks are issued loans only to those who are trusted.

Unemployment is significantly increased.

The standard of living of the country's citizens is noticeably reduced.

The volumes of gross national product are sharply falling.

A chronic simple production capacity begins (up to 60-70%).

Finally, the economic crisis reaches its lower point, on which the volume of gross national production volumes and market prices do not decrease and unemployment does not increase. Stagnation begins (recession) when production stops.

Phase solution (depression):

Market economy independently comes out of the crisis. Firms by any means are trying to receive at least some profit for their products. And then the firms begin a native microsystroy to reduce production costs and get an average profit at these low prices. For this company, they mobilize all the financial resources they have, for any percentage, they take loans from commercial banks and begin to produce products that are in demand in the market, while the firms refuse to issue unprofitable products. That is, the structure of the production of these firms is fundamentally changing, but for all this they need to update their fixed capital. Therefore, the investment activity of firms begin, the demand for investment goods is beginning to increase, and production begins to expand in other firms on the technological chain, and it means that the demand and market economy increases gradually from the depression phase and the third phase begins - the frank phase begins. In addition, the crisis clears the market economy from all weak firms, which at the normal time were not very profitable.

Revolution phase:

Its characteristic feature is a mass update of fixed capital.

This phase continues to operate until the pre-crisis level of the production of gross national product is reached. And when the massive update of fixed capital begins and a significant expansion of production, the phase of revitalization goes to the lifting phase.

Lifting phase:

The rate of economic growth increases and the volume of production of gross national product increases.

Trade is fighting and market prices for many products rises.

Increases the mass and the rate of profit firms.

The market economy gradually comes to the full employment of all available production facilities.

Wages begins to grow.

Due to the renewal of fixed capital, labor productivity increases and the payment of labor is also rising.

The amount of unemployed decreases.

According to the criterion of duration in the economic literature, three types of economic cycles are distinguished: large (long waves) - 45-60 years; Average - 7-13 years; Small (short) - 3-4 years.

The material basis of small cycles is the mass update of long-term goods. In small cycles, the crisis is an impetus for modernization and technical improvement of production, and, consequently, to the expansion of the market. The average (industrial) cycles are associated with a change in demand for equipment and structures, and the demand itself, its value and direction depends, in turn, from the introduction of new technical and technological advances, which is usually carried out for 7-13 years. The material basis of medium cycles is the mass renewal of fixed capital, as a result of which production is improved. However, at some stage, further improvement of production becomes impossible, a different system comes to replace the old technical system, the improvement of which occurs for several medium cycles. This technical system also exhausts itself, and comes a new technological method of production, the length of which corresponds to a large economic cycle (long wave). In large cycles, crisis processes require the introduction of basic innovations. This stimulates not only production growth, but also the structural restructuring of the entire economy and the mechanism of its functioning. Consequently, large cycles are characterized not only by the expansion of the market, but also by the creation of new markets.

It is generally recognized that there is a relationship between all types of economic cycles. Long waves absorb shorter cycles. Each long cycle is formed, first of all, as a result of the interaction of scientific and technological progress on one side and the entire system of the economy on the other side.

Both small, and large cycles in the economy of developed countries move relatively synchronously, forming world cycles. Small cycles are an organic part of large cycles. If they occur on the downstream phase of large cycles, then they are characterized by a depth of the crisis, the duration of depression, the weakness of the rise. For the upper phase of large cycles, small cycles are characterized with strong lifts and weak depressions.

The economic crisis is one of the phases of the cycle, and it can also be classified for several signs:

) In the nature of the violation of the reproduction proportions, two types are distinguished:

Ø The crisis of overproduction of goods is the release of an unnecessary amount of useful things that are not trash.

Ø The shortcoming crisis of goods is the sharp of their lack for the satisfaction of the effective supply of the population.

In the future, they will be considered in more detail.

) In the scale of the equilibrium disorders in economic systems, crises are made to divide into common (crises covering all national economy) and partial (crises covering any sector or branch of the economy).

So, financial crisis - Deep disorder of public finances. It manifests itself in constant budget deficits (when state expenses significantly exceed its income). The extreme manifestation of the financial crisis is the insolvency of the state for foreign loans. For example, during the global economic crisis, 1929 - 1933. G. stopped payments on external loans of Great Britain, France, Germany, Italy. And the United States in 1931. For a year, all payments for external debts were delayed.

Monetary crisis - Showness of the monetary system. There is a sharp reduction in bank loans, the massive seizure of deposits and the collapse of banks, the pursuit of the population and entrepreneurs for cash, the fall in the campaigns of shares and bonds, as well as the norms of the banking percentage.

Currency crisis It is expressed in impairment of the currency of individual countries (the lack of foreign "solid" currencies, the depletion of foreign exchange reserves in banks, the fall of exchange rates).

Stock crisis - a sharp decline in securities courses, a significant reduction in their emissions, deep decline in the Stock Exchange.

Agricultural crisis - This is a sharp deterioration in the sale of agricultural products (the fall in prices for agricultural products).

Structural crisis due to violation of normal relations between production sectors (one-sided development of one branches to the detriment of others, the deterioration of the situation in certain types of production). For example, in the mid-1970s there were great difficulties in providing Western countries with raw materials and energy.

) On the regularity of the equilibrium disorders in the economy, crises are divided into:

Ø Periodic crises are repeated regularly through some time intervals.

Ø Intermediates do not give the beginning of the full business cycle and interrupted at some stage; are less deep and less long.

Irregular crises have their special causes of occurrence.

Economic crises have two sides. One of them is destructive. It is associated with the decisive elimination of the existing abnormal proportions in the farm. Often, large surplus goods are destroyed.

Another side is wellness. It is inevitable, because during the depression, the fall in prices makes production disadvantageous: it does not give usual, medium profits. Exit from this deadlock helps update fixed capital (machines, equipment). This allows you to reduce the production of products, to make it sufficiently profitable. As a result, the crisis clears the market economy from all weak firms.

The first type of economic crises are overproduction crises. The essence of economic overproduction crises is that the main market equilibrium between supply and demand is violated. The offer is beyond the scope of demand, and if this happens in tangible sizes, the economic crisis of overproduction of goods begins.

Several theories can be distinguished, according to which economic overproduction crises appear:

According to Marx - the law of surplus value. Its action is explained as follows: firms seek to get a lot of mass and profit rate, for this they try to expand and improve production and produce more and more products. Then the firms receive a large mass of profit not only by increasing market prices on their products, but also by increasing the number of products produced and implemented, and each unit of products brings some small mass of profits. And then the more the number of products are produced, the greater mass of profits receive firms. This is a way to earn a large mass of profits by turnover, even when market prices and production costs are unchanged. But, increasing the production of products in order to obtain a greater mass of profits, firms are not very looking at the demand for their products. There is a demand, so firms want to make cream with this good economic situation and increase production, and the implementation of this product has a rather complicated structure: large -, medium -, small-winding and retail trade. And in retail trade, zaminki in the sale of products is already beginning, but the wholesale network is still not yet knowing and continues to buy products from firms. And now, finally, the demand constraints on the products produced become understandable to all forms of business, but it is already too late, since the supply of goods has been out of demand, and the economic crisis of overproduction has begun.

Monetary crisis theory. The essence of this theory is that when economic conjuncture is good and trade is good, cash flowdirected to the market economy is growing. In other words, the offer of money for a market economy from central Bank, commercial banks and the stock exchange increases, that is, the money supply is increasing, which is functioning in a market economy. As a result, the loan is becoming cheaper, the firms such a loan are taken away with the expansion of production, and the cash flow increases. Commercial banks need to raise the interest rate for loans, as economic rates go beyond the optimal, and thereby reduce the offer of money for the market economy. But each commercial bank is individually difficult to know when he needs to pause, and the cash flow continues to increase, and then the offer goes beyond the demand and the overproduction crisis begins.

Theory of absentia or theory of excessive savings. The essence of this theory is that for some reason, households begin to save their incomes more compared to how much they saved before. Those. Under the action of some rumors, for example, that soon the ruble rate will rise to unprecedented heights, the population of the country begins rapidly "hide money under the pillow." And then some part of the gross national product produced in this year will not be implemented. Excessive savings may occur as a result of economic instability in society. As a result, the offer goes beyond the demand of the demand and the overproduction crisis begins.

The theory of surplus of fixed capital. When in a market economy, good economic conditions, firms begin to capitalize an increasing part of their profits to increase and update fixed capital. In other words, entrepreneurs seek to increase the scale of production as soon as possible, buy new equipment and hire more qualified and, accordingly, more expensive specialists. They sometimes even create backup production facilities, assuming that such an economic situation will last long. And the result is redundant fixed assets, and when economic conditions deteriorates, the demand for goods drops sharply and investment activity of firms slows down. Have to reduce the staff, and the remaining in the workplaces to exploit " full program". As a result, unemployment increases, the demand for consumer goods is falling and the overproduction crisis begins in the economy.

The overproduction crisis and the exit mechanisms from it can be considered on the example of the "Great Depression". Until the early 30s, among Western economists, the idea was dominated by the fact that the economic downturns (crises) are explained by random reasons that the mechanism of market self-regulation, in principle, ensures compliance between the cumulative demand and the proposal. It means that this mechanism provides both the automatic output of the economy from the crisis, and the next elevation on the basis of updating the fixed capital and the elimination of unprofitable enterprises. This happens as follows. Morally obsolete equipment in a crisis is not able to provide a steady increase in production and cannot bring a profit to the entrepreneur. Consequently, the entrepreneur suffers losses. In order for his business to do not fail to complete, he seeks any ways to get at least some profit for its products. And then he begins the root restructuring of his company to reduce production costs and make a profit. The entrepreneur mobilizes all its resources available, for any percentage takes loans from commercial banks and begins to produce products that are in great demand in the market, while refusing to release unprofitable types of products. That is, the structure of its company produces radically changes. But for all this, he needs to update his fixed capital. The production chain begins to expand production in other firms, and it means that the demand and the market economy increases gradually from the depression phase. From here was the conclusion about the undesirable, and even the harm of state intervention in economic life. However, the deep crisis and the protracted depression of the 30s in the root contradicted this theory. It became obvious that the mechanism of market self-regulation does not cope with its functions, does not automatically reach the crisis, which required the transition to active state regulation of the economy.

The theory of state regulation of the market economy was, as you know, built by John Mainard Keynes and his followers. Keynes concluded that the exit from the deep crisis, an increase in production volumes and the level of employment is impossible without active participation of the state, which should not only stimulate a decline in the discount rate of commercial banks (percentage), but also carry out large-scale public procures in order to increase solvent total demand . In addition, the state should pay social benefits to the unemployed, people of old age and other inoperable members of society in order to prevent the social explosion. The state should ensure full employment of the population and high growth in production. The most far-sighted state leaders of Western countries come to the fundamental conclusion that market mechanism Must be an up-to-date mechanism for direct state regulation of the economy.

In the first quarter of the 20th century, the United States was among the leading states of the world and the most prosperous in economicly economical country With the transition of industrial capitalism to the monopolistic center of world economic development moved from Europe to North America. The United States developed faster than everyone and produced more than anyone. Their share in global production was constantly increased. An even stronger the position of the United States strengthened after the First World War, in particular, at the expense of significant profits from the countries of the Entons of weapons and ammunition. Industrial production increased rapidly, fixed capital expanded intensively, export increased. Economic success served as the reasons for the birth of the theory of the eternal prosperity of this state. As it turned out, it was the "Great Illusion". In 1929 The global economic crisis broke out, which lasted until 1933. Including and stronger than all the United States struck.

The following type of economic crises is an underdevelopment crisis. The crisis of unproduction of goods is the sharp shortage of goods to meet the effective supply of the population. Prehairing crises are caused by the following reasons:

Economic. The raw materials and food crises of the 70s violated the proportions of reproduction in Western countries.

Natural. These are droughts, floods, crumbs.

Social. These are wars and disadvantages of planning in the administrative and command economy. For example, the USSR, during its existence, completely monopolized the economy and based it on a constant deficit of the means of production for civilian industries and consumption items. A slowdown increase in the number of consumption items for six decades led to the fact that they became only 25% in all products of the industry, and the rest of the share accounted for military products (in highly developed countries, consumption items are 35-45% of production volume). Economic policy was aimed at strengthening material incentives for workers and social payments population. In 1990 The increase in the money supply in society was six times overtook an increase in the internal national product.

In more detail, the shortcoming crisis and the exit mechanisms from it can be considered on the example of the global energy crisis.

The stability of the oil market, practically uncompressed for decades, was marked noticeably in February 1971, when the Persian Gulf states were achieved for the first time as part of an OPEC agreement with oil-producing companies to significantly increase oil prices.

Note - OPEC is an international intergovernmental organization (also called the cartel) created by oil-producing powers in order to stabilize oil prices.

Countries - Leaders faster than others recovered from a painful blow. More importantly, here is the other: oil shock caused, first of all, it was in the mature market economy of these countries that the formation and development of new macroeconomic trends, which in turn to large and progressive structural changes in the entire global economy. The so-called post-industrial development has become a direct result of these changes. The explosive expansion of information technologies would be unthinkable without strategic redeployment of global investment resources in favor of the least energy-intensive directions and investment facilities.

Note - economic expansion is called violent or non-violent spread of spheres of influence in the field of economics.

In other words, the modern post-industrial economy is in many ways to produce the energy crisis of the 70s, which has fallen, primarily according to the traditional energy-intensive industries and has made more effective investments in the development of new, less costly industries. As for "old Industries, here the crisis has stimulated the development and implementation of energy-saving technologies in unprecedented accuracy. Another consequence of the oil crisis of the 70s was the gradual refusal of some developed countries of the West from the strategic import of liquid fuel through the development of its own import-substituting oil production. The hydrocarbon resources of the North Sea shelf mostly were divorced before the crisis, but the industrial exploitation became appropriate only in new economic conditions than did not slow down to take advantage of the oilmen of Britain and Norway, providing their countries with energy independence. In other developed countries of Europe, the fuel crisis caused the restructuring of their energy balances. Thus, in Denmark and Holland, the consumption of natural gas produced on the coastal shelf of these countries increased, and the proportion of wind power facilities grew in the production of electricity.

For less developed countries that do not have its own oil, the consequences of the crisis turned out to be more severe. They purchased fuel at new prices and were forced to access external sources of financing. Former sellers' countries were injured. Since the basis of exports of these countries is oil, and after raising the prices and the introduction of the embargo, the level of oil sales fell, the export capabilities of these states have fallen sharply.

Although over the past three decades, the price of liquid fuel not only grew, but also decreased, from time to time, the level of them has since not approached the pre-crisis, constantly exceeding it many times. Therefore, it is possible to believe that the oil shock of 1973 at one time had a multidimensional revolutionary impact on the world and, in particular, to the Soviet economy. Developed countries have moved to energy saving policies, which, after 25 years, gave results: a decrease in the energy intensity of the gross product by 20-30% of the beginning of the early 70s. In these countries, it is also considered that the limit in energy saving is not achieved, and the task of the effective use of energy resources is long-term. It can be seen that in the 8-year program of energy saving of the Russian Federation, they are approximately the same pace achieved by developed countries at one time.

The world experience of the last decades has shown that countries go to the energy-saving path in the times of significant increase in energy prices.

3. World Financial Crisis

3.1 The essence of the global financial crisis

The global crisis walks the world at the rate of financial transaction.

The global economic crisis (Global Economic Crisis) is a steady financial crisis of countries that are included in the global financial system based on the dominance of the American financial system over other systems.

The global financial crisis (sometimes called the "Great Recession") - the financial and economic crisis that manifested itself in September - October 2008 in the form of a significant deterioration in the main economic indicators in most developed countries, and the global recession at the end of the same year.

The predecessor of the 2008 financial crisis was the mortgage crisis in the United States, the first signs of which were manifested in 2006 in the form of a decline in the number of sales of houses, and by the spring of 2007, they turned into a crisis of high-risk mortgage loans (subprime lending (English)). Quite quickly problems with lending were felt and reliable borrowers. In the summer of 2007, the crisis from Mortgage began to grow into financial and affect not only the United States. Bankruptcy of large banks began, the salvation of banks by national governments began. Particularly allocate bankruptcy Lehman Brothers on September 15, 2008. Quotes in stock markets decreased dramatically during 2008 and in early 2009. For companies, the possibilities of obtaining capital were significantly reduced during the placement of securities. In 2008, the crisis acquired a world nature and began to manifest itself in the widespread decrease in production volumes, reducing the demand and prices for raw materials, unemployment growth.

The reasons for the occurrence of the crisis are associated with the following factors:

Ø imbalances of international trade and movement of capital.

Ø overheating of the credit market and especially manifested by its consequence of the mortgage crisis;

Ø credit expansion deployed in the 1980s - early 2000s.

Ø high prices for commodities (including oil);

Ø overheating stock market.

Point of view of the Austrian Economic School. Austrian economic School As the main cause of the crisis calls a credit expansion. In their opinion, high prices for raw materials are due to credit expansion that causes inflation. Another mechanism also takes place: new money created by banks when issuing loans is not sent to the real sector of the economy, but on various exchanges (including commodity), and through these huge credit funds investment funds And investment banks manipulate prices for goods.

The cyclicity of economic development is also due to credit expansion and represents the following cycle: credit expansion, boom, collapse. Under the credit expansion means issuing funds from accounts to demand (also from current accounts) on credit. The Austrian school believes that this is contrary to the norms of the right to invalid the use of things on storage.

A fiat (fiduciary) nature of money is also highlighted, in other words, the insecurity of money with real goods (lack of a gold standard).

High commodity prices. In the 2000s, the consumption boom was observed, accompanied by the steady increase in prices for raw materials after a large depression of consumption goods in 1981-2000. But in 2008, the prices of many goods, especially oil and food (agglies), reached such a level that there were tangible economic damage. In January 2008, oil prices exceed $ 100 per barrel. On July 11, 2008, the price of WTI oil brand reached a record of $ 147.27 per barrel, after which there was a decline - to $ 61 on October 24 of the same year and up to $ 51 in November. Food and fuel crises were discussed in July at 34 G8 summit.

And in January 2011, the FAO Food Index reached 231 points - this is the highest indicator since FAO began to measure the index in 1990.

As a result, in early 2011, the world was on the verge of a food crisis, which can lead to global political change. For example, in January 2011, due to the low standard of living and partly due to the food crisis, revolutions occurred in Tunisia and Egypt.

The demand for cars has decreased: in August 2008, sales of cars in Europe decreased by 16%, in the United States in September sales of cars decreased by 26%, in Japan - by 5.3%. This led to a reduction in metal production and reducing jobs in auto industry and related industries.

Figure 3.1 Prices for oil.

Mortgage Crisis 2007 in the USA

The direct predecessor of the total financial and banking crisis in the United States was the crisis of high-risk mortgage loans (subprime) in 2007, that is, mortgage lending to persons with low income and bad credit history. From 2001 to 2005, the cost of real estate, which directly owned a household increased by $ 10 trillion, the Americans lost about $ 6 trillion from the value of the real estate owned by him.

George Soros in "Die Welt" dated October 14, 2008 determined the role of the "mortgage soap bubble" as "only the trigger, which led to what the larger bubble burst."

Subsequently, the financial crisis in the United States became a detonator of the global crisis. According to analysts, American investment structures, facing problems in the domestic market, began to discount their foreign funds, which caused cash outflow from the markets of new developing countries. As a result, the whole world began to suffer from the crisis that emerged in the United States.

january 2010 began work created by the US Congress Commission to investigate the causes of the crisis.

Innovation in the financial market. The essential factor in the occurrence of the loan crisis in the United States, according to a number of experts, has become widespread use since the early 1990s financial instruments, Derivatives (Eng. Derivatives) and the desire to increase profitability due to increasing risks. At the same time, there is no analysis, which would show that the derivatives brought the crisis, and that the crisis would not come in construction even earlier if Derivatives did not contribute to the expansion of operating demand for real estate and expensive goods.

Estimates of the duration of crisis

In 2008 and 2009, most politicians and economists predicted a quick completion of the crisis. However, there were those who spoke about the long-term nature of the crisis. In particular, the Russian economist Mikhail Khazin estimated the duration of the crisis in 5-8 years.

In 2009, the forecasts of national governments regarding the consequences of the crisis for their own economies in most cases were more optimistic than about the economies of other countries and the world as a whole, and most often called the end 2009 or early 2010.

In 2011-2012, more and more economists began to talk about the lengthy nature of the crisis. It is especially emphasized that the crisis is far from completion and he continues to develop.

The assumptions of Russian specialists about when the crisis is completed, they will differ greatly: from several months (Dvorkovich), up to several decades (Kudrin, Ershov). Similarly varied, although not so radical, forecasts are given foreign authors. The reasons for the scattering are that government figures, on the one hand, fear negative sentiments and even panic among market participants, including consumers, and try to reassure people with optimistic forecasts and assurances that "everything under control". On the other hand, it is necessary to justify for the adoption of unpopular measures, which is easier to do against the background of pessimistic forecasts. In addition, many political scientists and media want to simply raise the publication rating with prediction apocalyptic predictions.

Crisis in global car industry

The mortgage crisis in the United States (2007) provoked in September 2008 the liquidity crisis of world banks: banks stopped issuing loans, in particular credits for the purchase of cars. As a result, sales of auto hydriants began to shrink. Three auto giant Opel, Daimler and Ford reported in October to reduce production volumes in Germany. From the real estate sector, the crisis shifted to the real economy, recession began, decline in production.

The spread of LIBOR-OIS (showing the difference between the LIBOR rate and futures at the official rate of the Central Bank - evidence of the availability of money in the interbank market) at the end of September 2008 exceeded 200 basic points for dollar loans, and in early October - 250.

The crowd of waiting contributors from one of the branches of the Bank Northern Rock on September 15, 2007. Customers in a mass order withdrew savings from their accounts

Bankruptcy Lehman Brothers led to doubts about the possibility of payments for insurance companies that are accomplished from bankruptcy risks lending (CDS), which led to the crisis of the CDS tool itself and a sharp increase in insurance risks that took place in the trust crisis between banks and a sharp increase in lending rates, which was particularly strong In developing credit markets, including Ukraine and Russia.

Collapse in stock markets

october 2007 Many indices of world stock markets reached a peak, after which the decline began: from that day to October 3, 2008, when the Chamber of Representatives of the US Congress from the second attempt took the Polson's plan, the S & P 500 index fell by 30%; The MSCI WORLD index showing the dynamics in the markets of developed countries, fell by 32.3%; MSCI Emerging Markets Emerging Market Index - by 40.5%. Unlike the previous collapse in 2000-2002, which was caused by the collapse in the stock market of technological companies and was limited to the US markets, the collapse of 2007-2008 touched upon all countries and was due to events outside the stock market - boom, and then collapse in credit and the housing sectors, and later - and in commodity markets: the first began to fall the shares of Western banks, and since July 2008, when it began to quickly cheaper oil, the shares of commodity companies of developing countries.

Bank week October 6-10, 2008 brought historically maximum fall in indexes on US trading platforms: Dow Jones Industrial Average fell to 7882.51 and closed on 8451, 19. The Financial Times compared the collapse of the stock market on Friday October 10, 2008 from October 10 1938: "In the morning trading on Friday, the fall of the S & P 500 index for a decade was almost identical to his fall in a decade at the same date in 1938."

The collapse of the stock market in October 2008 became a record for the US market over the past 20 years, for the market of Japan - in history.

Collapse of the largest investment banks in the US

Five leading investment banks USA stopped their existence in previous quality: Bear Stearns was oversold, Lehman Brothers went bankrupt, Merrill Lynch Saldman, Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley changed their signage, ceased to be investment banks due to special risks and the need to receive additional support for the Federal Reserve Systems.

Table 3.1 Consolidated table of bankruptcies of American banks.

is suitable datus start Godasa 2007 goda20073320082528200925 maya366425 iyulya64921 avgusta699729 avgusta841093 oktyabrya9812323 oktyabrya10613114 noyabrya1231486 dekabrya13015531 dekabrya140165201023 yanvarya517024 fevralya201906 maya6823326 iyulya10026529 noyabrya15331830 dekabrya15732220115 fevralya1436619 fevralya2034226 marta263489 iyulya513736 avgusta633851 oktyabrya74396201227 aprelya2146020 oktyabrya40485

The dependence of the global economy from one reserve currency is the dollar. Low loan rates and overheating of the credit market. In the aggregate, these reasons complement the picture and are interrelated causes of the global financial crisis.

In fact, the global financial crisis of 2008 is a direct consequence of globalization of the global economy and the financial crisis in the United States as the Center for World Globalization. At the same time, the global (global) economic crisis threatens to minimize all the conquest of globalization, the economists consider.

In any case, the crisis was a forced procedure for a number of countries, although many of them will survive it practically without prejudice, many will be able to raise their inner economy, and some will be in a difficult situation.

Thus, it is impossible to say that the economic crisis is definitely bad. It occurs only when the system of the capitalist device is obsolete and becomes ineffective. The modern crisis is structural, that is, in fact it could be expected. In the history of mankind crises, it was enough, so according to the experience of past years we can assume that our problem will last no more than three years, and the point of absolute crisis falls for 2009, and then the gradual restoration of all industries will begin, it will take another two years.

3.2 Crisis in selected countries

In Europe, many countries and today there are practically no country that the global financial crisis walps.

The European economy has undergone a hard impact of the financial crisis immediately after the United States. The EU economy is closely related to the financial system of the United States, primarily due to the dependence on the dollar.

How did the financial crisis develop in Europe, which countries are injured?

Australia

Hans Redeker, current leader BNP Paribas., stated that Australia would have to generate 4% of their GDP, to cover payments to foreign holders of their assets. The Government of Australia will act as a guarantor of all bank deposits in the country's financial organizations, AFP reported with reference to the statement of Prime Minister Australia Kevin Radda. In the event of a bankruptcy of one of the banks, reimbursement on deposits will be carried out without any restrictions. In addition, Australia will also guarantee all short-term debentures His banks operating in the international market.

In the period of September - October 2008, the Australian dollar was devalued by 23%, measures were taken to infusion in the economy to $ 7.3 billion in order to stimulate consumer demand. Also, the Reserve Bank of Australia undertook a decrease in the refinancing rate.

The fall in prices for shares (including the shares of Australian companies) caused significant losses of Australian pension funds.

Reducing demand for raw materials from China's industry and the fall in world prices has a negative impact on the extractive industry of Australia.

The crisis also created pressure on the labor market. On October 25, 2008, Minister of Immigration Australia Chris Evans said that due to the crisis, immigration quota will be reduced for 2009, which had previously to 160-190 thousand people per year under the population Australia in 21 million However, a few days later, Chris Evans refused these measures under the pressure of companies and trade unions of the Western Australia.

In December 2008, the Department of Immigration Australia amounted to the "critical list" of several dozen specially promification specialties, implications for immigration on which will be considered in priority.

Despite the negative factors, according to the forecasts of the IMF and the Reserve Bank of Australia, the growth of the economy is predicted to 2% in 2009, while most Western economies will be in a state of recession.

Belorussia

Given the underdevelopment of stock and financial markets in the country and their weak integration into the global financial system, the influence of the global financial crisis on the Belarusian economy was manifested somewhat later compared to other countries. It is worth noting that the impact occurs through two main channels: a decrease in volumes (growth rates) of production in partner countries and, as a result, a decrease in demand for certain positions of Belarusian exports (primarily petroleum products, black metals, potash fertilizers, engineering products); Limiting the possibilities of attracting foreign capital, both in the form of external borrowing and direct investment. At the same time, the peculiarities complicated by the situation in Belarus were: a long-term deficit of the current account of the country's payment balance; Insufficient lifting volumes to the country of direct foreign investment; limited gold and foreign exchange reserves; Relatively high inflation and devaluation expectations.

India

Indian GDP growth was expected to be 6.8% in 2008 and 5.5% for the results of 2009. The government announced a allocation of up to $ 5 billion to promote exporters. A number of analysts expect partial reorientation of the Indian economy to trade with other Asian countries, especially China, also on domestic demand, and large infrastructure projects. According to the Prime Minister of Manmohan Singha, made in September 2008, the Indian government "gives the highest priority to the means of isolation of the country from the global financial crisis."

Measures were taken on the devaluation of Indian Rupee, and in the infusion of funds to the economy. India's central bank reduced the basic interest rate.

In July - August 2008, a decline in sales of new passenger cars was observed, mainly local production. In November, sales fell by 19%.

In December 2008, it was noted for the first time in 15 years, a reduction in industrial production, which occurs against the background of the negative reaction of investors on a terrorist attack in Mumbai. There is a sharp drop in stock quotes, and foreign capital flights from India.

Iceland

In Iceland, the government transferred under the control of financial surveillance of the three largest bank of the country: Kaupþing. Banki, Glitnir Banki (previously assumed to nationalize it) and Landsbanki Íslands. . The four of the largest banks of Iceland had external obligations of $ 106 billion in the amount of GDP at $ 14 billion on October 9, the government stopped trade in all the shares, until October 13, the OMX Exchange was closed in Reykjavik, short-selling shares of all banks of the country were prohibited. Prime Minister Geir Kharede in circulation to citizens warned that the country could become bankrupt. The economic situation in the country caused mass discontent and protests, which led on November 23, 2008 to mass riots in Reykjavik on January 26, 2009, Geir Kharde announced the resignation of the government.

Kazakhstan

In the second half of August 2007, the crisis of mortgage lending began in the country.

december 2008 President of Kazakhstan Nursultan Nazarbayev in the public ceremony stated: "Apparently, the bottom approach: the decline in the economy is everywhere and everywhere."

Kazakhstan's GDP, according to the National Statistics Agency, has decreased in January 2009 by 2.9% by January 2008; Industry - by 1.8%.

IN " Russian newspaper"On February 2, 2009, N. Nazarbayev made an article by the article" Plan of Radical Update ", in which he introduced a number of new terms and concepts (for example," Defectal "-" Defective capital, which operates defective currency ") and put forward the" global pro "global initiative" - "Radical update plan", which was in "the preparation of the whole world to a practical transition from the era of partially defective" transitalism "into the coming world of" acmetalism ".

february The Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan reported a redemption of 78% of shares of BTA Bank and 76% of alliance bank shares.

february National Bank of the Republic of Kazakhstan devalued the national currency tenge by 25%.

april National Welfare Fund "Samruk-Kazyna" supported the People's Bank, bought 21% of the bank's shares.

The assets of the national fund of Kazakhstan decreased by almost 20% for the first quarter of 2009.

april Goldman Sachs worsened the forecast of Kazakhstan's GDP fall from 0 to 3%.

Nursultan Nazarbayev instructed the Agency for Financial Supervision (AFF) of Kazakhstan to consider the restructuring of external loans

Cyprus

In March 2013, a financial crisis broke out in the Republic of Cyprus, which led to the destruction of its banking system. The economy of the country entered the default state.

China

According to the results of the first three quarters of 2008, the volume of gold reserves of the PRC amounted to about 2 trillion dollars, but in the fourth quarter there was a decrease in these reserves, reduced to 1.9 trillion dollars. The PRC authorities announced an investment plan to $ 586 billion in infrastructure update and agriculture. This amount is up to 18% of the PRC GDP, while Paulson Plan in the United States is up to 6% of GDP. Implementation of the package of anti-crisis measures began in October 2008, this China allocated 4 trillion yuan ($ 585 billion)

november 2008 Minister of Human Resources and Social Security, Member of the State Council of the PRC Yin Weimin officially recognized the increase in the number of unemployed in the country, calling the situation "critical": export oriented factories are forced to close.

In connection with the reduction of external demand, the intentions of the Chinese government to reorient the economy on domestic demand are announced. Also, representatives of the PRC announced the estimated translation of their reserves in gold.

According to the results of 2008, the GDP GDP is expected to be 9-10%, for 2009, growth is predicted, according to various estimates, from 5 to 10%. So, The World Bank Forecasts growth at 7.5%, Goldman Sachs - at 6%.

The deterioration of the global conjuncture led to the fact that the Chinese industry reduced the demand for raw materials, which, in turn, led to a decline in world prices, including the production of metallurgy.

january 2009, the Agency "Xinhua", commenting on Genry Polson's statements and Ben Bernanke, was responsible for the global crisis for the US authorities, accusing them in "excessive emission of dollars in the connivance of control departments"

The most difficult for China was November 2008, and the lower point of the recession took place at the first quarter of 2009, when China's GDP increased by only 6.1%, the volume of exports of the PRC in the first quarter of 2009 decreased by 30.9%

august 2011, the index of business activity in China's manufacturing sector, calculated by the HSBC Bank for the first time after the winter of 2008-2009 fell into the depressive region and remains in the depressive area to July 2012. See the Second Wave of Crisis.

Latvia

Latvia turned out to be one of those countries that most affected from the global economic crisis, which began in 2007-2008. Ineptly managed by the country and the inability of the government in a timely manner to curb the crisis situation led to the collapse of such essential social sectors as medicine, education.

According to the results of 2009, Latvian GDP fell by 17.8% (the worst indicator of the 2009 GDP dynamics in the world of 2009).

Lithuania

According to the results of 2009, Lithuanian GDP fell by 16.8% - one of the worst indicators of GDP dynamics in the world (a stronger fall occurred only in Latvia).

In 2008-2009, the Lithuanian construction market fell more than 40%. The service market has also fallen significantly (on average by 20%) and retailers (by 25%).

New Zealand

From the first quarter of 2008, New Zealand's economy entered the recession due to the global credit crisis, drought and the fall in demand for traditional exports - agricultural products. According to the Minister of Finance of New Zealand Michael Callen, "this year began to adapt to real difficulties caused by a combination of a deceleration of global economic growth, increasing prices for oil and food, and increasing the cost of loans against the background of the loan crisis in the US ... These difficulties came to us From abroad, but we overcome this heavy segment, and we return to the growth of the economy against the background of a number of positive factors. "

The crisis in New Zealand in 2008 passed against the background of the fall in real estate prices, and massive reduction in jobs. About 23 New Zealand Financial Companies announced bankruptcy.

Ukraine

Ukraine during the crisis is taken by a major IMF loan in the amount of $ 16.5 billion with the total gold-currency reserves of the country at this point about $ 32 billion on December 1, 2008 received the first tranche - $ 4 billion. The loan is intended for payments to Western debt creditors Commercial enterprises and banks of Ukraine. Despite the loan, Ukraine is one of the most affected crisis:

In October 2008, industrial production in Ukraine fell by 19.8% and for the first time since August 2005, the fall of GDP was recorded - by 2.1%.

In November 2008, Ukraine's GDP fell by 14% compared to November 2007.

In November 2008, the decline in production by November 2007 was: light industry? 19.1%, processing industry? 29%, mining industry? 32.1%, chemical industry? 35.2%, mechanical engineering? 38.8%, metallurgy? 48.8%.

The hryvnia devalued more than twice as much as the US dollar for a period of 4 months: from 4.60 UAH. In August to 10 UAH. 198, 2008 for $ 1. However, from April 2009, the hryvnia rate went up and at the middle of May had already reached 7.4 UAH. /Doll.

Public refusal in November 2008 of the National Bank of Ukraine in accordance with the provision of the IMF loan from the hryvnia course support.

The NBU on December 19, he stated the possibility of "internal default", accusing the government in advance.

In October, the NBU did a special decree banned money from bank deposits. As a result of "frozen" hryvnia deposits of the population, which cannot be taken from banks, greatly depreciated.

In November - December, many commercial banks unilaterally raised interest rates on previously issued currency and hryvnia loans - on average one and a half times. Thus, currency loans have become a trap. As of December 11, according to the official (understated) course, 7.47 UAH. /Doll. Currency loans only individuals 191.7 billion hryvnia amounted to 191.7 billion, an increase of from 130 billion in October exclusively due to the fall of the hryvnia. Since November, bank lending is almost completely discontinued.

A shortage of foreign trade balance (excess of imports over exports) has reached $ 17 billion over the 10 months of 2008. Covering means abroad and within the country were brought to cover this deficit.

A significant reduction in the liquid gold reserves of the NBU - from 38 billion on September 1 to $ 27.2 billion in December.

According to the results of 2009, Ukraine's GDP fell by 14.1%, which was one of the worst GDP dynamics in the world. For the same year, industrial production fell by 25.0% (a stronger fall was only in Botswana and Estonia).

Estonia

Since the beginning of 2008, negative trends have been manifested in Estonia's economy. Industrial production fell, the budget for 2009 was first adopted with a deficit.

According to the results of 2009, Estonia's GDP fell by 13.7%, which was one of the worst indicators of GDP dynamics in the world. For the same year, industrial production fell by 26.5% (a stronger fall was only in Botswana).

Japan

On October 10, 2008, the Nikkei 225 index fell to the lowest value from May 2003, dropping at 881.06 points (-9.62%) and reaching 8276.43 points. The Central Bank of Japan announced its intention to send $ 35.5 billion to support the financial market, earlier the Central Bank allocated about $ 40 billion. On the same day became bankrupt insurance Company Yamato Life Insurance Co. Ltd., the amount of debt of which amounted to about $ 2.7 billion.

the economist surveyed by Bloomberg News in February 2009, believed that due to the reduction of the external demand for Japan's GDP in the 4th quarter of 2008, collapsed by 11.7%

Greece

Greece's economy as no other was overwhelmed by the crisis. For the summer of 2011, the cumulative external national debt of Greece exceeded 140% of GDP.

february 2012, a program was adopted at a meeting of the Ministers of Finance of the Eurozone, according to which Greece will receive 130 billion euros until 2014, and private lenders write 53.5% (107 billion euros) of the state debts on bonds. To adopt this agreement, the country's leadership went to unpopular measures (reduced the minimum salary to 600 euros per month), which was the cause of mass protests held on February 12, 2012.

Sweden

Sweden is one of those countries that the least tragic survived the first stage of the crisis. Despite the fact that both Swedish companies have reduced working personnel, the fall in the level of the internal gross product, in early March 2011, Stefan Ingves, head of the Central Bank of Sweden, said that the financial crisis was completed for Sweden. "According to the latest data, Swedish GDP in 2010, compared with the previous year, grew by 5.5%. This is the highest mark since 1970."

In March 2011, Swedish Crown rose by 0.6% to 6.2889 for $ 1. This is the highest figure since August 2008. Also, the level of the country's economy surpassed the pre-crisis indicator and, according to economists, will continue to grow in the future

The largest Swedish banks - SEB, Swedbank and Nordea actively developed consumer lending in the Baltic countries. At the same time, the Baltic countries kept the banking system of Sweden from full collapse. Also overcome the financial crisis helped the assistance provided by the International Monetary Fund, plus the retention of the national currency rate - although the price of sharp limits of budget deficit. First of all, the inhabitants of the Baltic countries had to pay, unlike the Swedes who survived a sharp drop in the standard of living. It is worth noting the fact that the Government of Sweden reduced last years income tax. This allowed to support consumer demand at a rather high level during the crisis. It was also possible to maintain basic social benefits - free education, medical care, high pensions and benefits.

3.3 Financial and Economic Crisis 2008-2010 in Russia

According to the World Bank, the Russian crisis of 2008 "began as a private sector crisis, provoked by excessive borrowing of the private sector in conditions of deep triple shock: on the part of the conditions of foreign trade, outflow of capital and tightening the conditions of external borrowing."

The first sign of the beginning crisis in Russia was the downward trend on Russian stock markets at the end of May 2008, which went to the collapse of quotations at the end of July, as a result, as some experts believe, statements by the Chairman of the Government of the Russian Federation Vladimir Putin to the leadership of Mechel in July and military-political actions of the country's leadership in early August (armed conflict in South Ossetia).

A feature of the Russian economy before the crisis was a large amount of external corporate debt with a minor public debt and third in the world largest gold reserves of the state.

september 2008 V.V. Putin at a meeting in Sochi with foreign entrepreneurs who arrived at the Economic Forum, said: "We see tension on our trading platforms, but we believe that this is not related to our problems, we have no system problems. All capital performance of the Russian economy is normal ". The next day, Putin said the newspaper Kommersant A.I. Kolesnikov: "So there is no crisis!" On January 28, 2009, in Davos Putin, in his speech, said, in particular, that the crisis "literally hung in the air. However, the majority did not want to notice the rising wave."

Liquidity crisis in Russian banks, a sharp drop in the RTS and MICEX exchange indices, the fall in prices for export products (raw materials and metal) began in October - November 2008 to affect the real sector of the economy: a sharp decline in industrial production began, the first wave of job cuts. On December 12, 2008, Deputy Head of Marti Andrei Klepach admitted that in the fourth quarter the Russian economy entered the recession. On December 15, Clapacha's statement was refuted by the Minister of Finance Alexei Kudrin, who predicted GDP growth in Russia in 2009 by 3%.

Figure 3.2 Schedule of the annual change in real GDP of Russia 1991-2010

In September - October 2008, the Government of Russia announced the first anti-crisis measures aimed at solving the most urgent task at that time: strengthening the financial system of Russia. These measures included instruments of monetary, budget and quasi-fiscal policies, which were aimed at ensuring the repayment of external debt by the largest banks and corporations, reducing the liquidity deficit and the recapitalization of the main banks. The budget expenditures aimed at supporting the financial system exceeded 3% of GDP. These costs were carried out on two channels: provision of liquidity in the form of subordinated loans and by infusion in the capital of the banking system. According to the World Bank, "this made it possible to achieve the stabilization of the banking system in the conditions of the extremist liquidity deficit and prevent panic among the population: the net outflow of deposits from the banking system has stabilized, the growth of foreign exchange deposits has been avoided, and the bankruptcy consolidation process has been resumed, and the banking sector consolidation process has been resumed ".

Figure 3.3 Russian MICEX's Russian Stock Index compared with the American DJIA index. As a percentage of April 2008's values.

Attempts by the government to keep the decline in the course of the Russian ruble led to the loss of up to a quarter of the goldenwriter reserves of the Russian Federation; From the end of November 2008, the financial authorities began the policies of the "soft devaluation" of the ruble, which, according to the journalist "Independent Newspaper", significantly accelerated the decline in industry in November - December 2008, forcing enterprises to finish production and output coverages on the foreign exchange market.

Figure 3.4 Dynamics of the US dollar courses to the Russian ruble.

december 2008, the chairman of the government Vladimir Putin during the "Direct Line" with the population announced a reduction in the quota to attract labor migrants to Russia twice (previously in 2008 it was doubled)

According to the Minister of Finance Alexei Kudrin dated December 27, 2008, in 2009 the state budget of the Russian Federation expects a deficit of 1.5-2 trillion rubles, which will be covered from reserve funds

According to the data promulgated on January 23, 2009, Rosstat, in December 2008, the fall in industrial production in Russia reached 10.3% in relation to December 2007 (in November - 8.7%), which became the deepest decline in production over the past decade; In general, in the 4th quarter of 2008, the fall in industrial production was 6.1% compared with the same period of 2007

Russian gold reserves decreased for the first quarter of 2009 by about 10%.

december 2009 V.V. Putin stated that the active phase of the Russian economic crisis was overcome.

At the end of 2009, the Russian stock market turned out to be the world growth leader, the RTS index rose 2.3 times on September 12, 2010 "Independent Gazeta" noted that the Russian stock market It was possible to play most of the fall that occurred at the beginning of the global financial crisis. According to the "independent newspaper", this happened due to the implemented russian government Anti-crisis program.

In March 2010, the World Bank report noted that the loss of Russia's economy was less than it was expected at the beginning of the crisis. According to the World Bank, it happened in part due to large-scale anti-crisis measures that the government took.

According to the results of the first quarter of 2010, in terms of GDP growth rates (2.9%) and the growth of industrial production (5.8%), Russia has reached the 2nd place among the "G8 countries" by giving way only Japan. In October 2010 V.V. Putin said that the global economic crisis has become a serious test for Russia, but his lessons confirmed the correctness of the Government chosen by the Government, and "pre-accumulated reserves, responsible macroeconomic policies, successfully implemented by the anti-crisis program - all this allowed to mitigate the consequences of a decline in the economy for citizens and for business and Comparely quickly return to the growth trajectory. "

According to the magazine "The Economist", the Big Mac index, adjusting to GDP per capita, on July 25, 2011, shows that russian ruble overvalued in relation to the US dollar by 10%

Figure 3.5 Industrial production index in Russia in 2008-2010, as a percentage of the relevant period of the previous year.

Expected, in the period 2012 and 2011. External conditions for the development of the Russian economy will deteriorate compared with the previous three-year period. The expected growth in demand growth in the group of countries - leading importers of Russian goods, a decrease in the growth rates of consumer prices in a group of countries - leading suppliers of goods to Russia, as well as low commodity prices will affect the Russian economy in the direction of restricting economic growth rates and Constraining inflation.

Conclusion

The topic "Economic crises and their species" are interesting, I think not only to me. It will be relevant for a still a large amount of time, and maybe always, since I don't think that in the near future economists will learn how to smooth out the cycle to such an extent that its amplitude of the oscillations is equal to zero. With the amplitude of oscillations, more than zero can be said that this is already a cycle. When you observe how crises are brewing and occur in the leaders, such as the USA, Japan, Germany, England, they are involuntarily thinking that even such rich countries that have so many specialists, funds still cannot avoid crises.

Russia is a unique country. If in Europe many countries, in general, similar to the economic structure, economy, culture, then Russia is a country whose analogues in the world are not, and there will be no. Russia is now in not in such a deep crisis as Europe. In my opinion, the reasons for constant crises lie, first of all, in the mentality of Russians. In this country, even the most honest people are looking for, "where and who would be extended." Corruption is the main problem with which you need to cope in Russia to at least create prerequisites for the revival of the economy. From such a feature of mentality will be very difficult to get rid, and if it turns out, it is no soon. As stated in the saying, "the fish rot from the head", and the reason for this state of our country should be sought in the "top" in the ruling elite. In my opinion, in my opinion, in my opinion, an inactive party, headed by an inactive president, therefore, to build a democratic, stable society in economic and social terms, we still do not succeed with the current government. Of course, economic crises are inevitable throughout the world and in Russia in particular, but in our country they will be especially acute, especially for the population with the Lower RESPONT, and often due to the lack of conscientious, patriotic people at the head of state that will pursue politics in The interests of our state and the people.

I believe that in this paper I lit all the key questions on the topic "economic crises and their views."

So, it was found that economic growth is very uneven. It is constantly interrupted by the periods of economic instability - the fall in the volume of production, employment, etc. The economic cycle can be defined as the time interval between the two qualitatively identical states of the economic situation. It includes four phases: the phase of the crisis, the depression phase, the phase of revitalization, the phase of the lift.

The essence of economic overproduction crises is that the proposal is beyond the scope of demand, and when it occurs in tangible sizes, the economic crisis of overproduction of goods begins.

The crises of non-generation of goods, on the contrary, are to be acute the shortage of goods to meet the effective supply of the population.

The reasons and classification of these two types of crises were also deeply disassembled.

The reasons for the emergence of economic crises of overproduction can be the following: the desire of entrepreneurs to gain a large mass of profits due to turnover (and in the scale of the country it leads to a crisis); The increase in the money supply operating in a market economy, as a result of which the loan is becoming cheaper, all firms such a loan are eager to expand production, and commercial banks do not have time to raise the interest rate by reducing the money supply for the market economy; excessive savings by household goods of their income compared to how much they saved before; The surplus of fixed capital at a good economic situation and the creation of reserve production capacity by enterprises involved that such an economic situation will last long (the resulting excess fixed capital is accumulated).

The reasons for prevalence crises are as follows: Economic (raw and food crises), natural (droughts, floods, crisps), social (wars and disadvantages of planning in the administrative and command economy).

Claims of overproduction and prevaluation crises are classified: the scale of equilibrium impairment in economic systems (general crises and partial crises); According to the regularity of the violation of equilibrium in the economy (periodic, intermediate, irregular).

As an example, the crisis of overproduction was taken for consideration by the "Great Depression". Then the state intervention in the economic life of the country was observed for the first time, and this gave their tangible successes. After that, many countries adopted the US experience and also began to apply government regulation of the economy.

A very significant example for the characteristics of the exit mechanism from the preemptive crisis, as well as its consequences, was the global energy crisis. Different countries behaved in the conditions of this crisis, respectively, in different ways. Oil shock caused the development of new macroeconomic trends in the market economy, which led to large and progressive structural changes in the entire global economy. Post-industrial development has become a direct result of these changes. The development of information technologies would be impossible without the redistribution of investment resources in favor of the least energy-intensive directions and investment facilities. Some powers began the industrial operation of long-explored reserve oil fields. In other developed countries of Europe, the fuel crisis caused the restructuring of their energy balances. In Denmark and Holland, the consumption of natural gas increased in high rates, and the proportion of wind power facilities increased in the production of electricity.

The issue of the global financial crisis was also deeply analyzed. The occurrence of the crisis can be associated with the following factors:

Ø total cyclical economic development;

Ø overheating of the credit market and the resulting cause of the mortgage crisis;

Ø high prices for commodities (including oil);

Ø overheating stock market.

According to a number of experts, the second wave of crisis is inevitable.

The former head of the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, Alexey Kudrin, in December 2011, said that the second wave of crisis began: "It is now already obvious that the massive printing of money to maintain the demand, support for the economy and reducing unemployment will move the problem, but does not save it." In the article "The Washington Post" (Feb. 2013) notes that liquidity ceased to transform into growth.

Decoration of the global economy. year 2013

Industrial production in Russia in January 2013 fell by 0.8% in relation to the January previous year, in annual terms, industrial production in the country decreased for the first time since October 2009. In just 2012, Russian industrial production increased by 2.6 percent, for 2011 - by 4.7 percent, and in 2010 - by 8.2 percent.

According to forecasts voiced by Chinese officials (Jan. 2013), in 2013, the depression of the global economy will continue, according to a preliminary assessment, the growth of the global economy in the current year will be about 3%. In the Center for the Study of the World Economy, at the Institute for the Study of Modern International Relations (Beijing) (Fevr. 2013), expects to improve the global economic situation in 2013 compared with 2012, the growth of the global economy is predicted at a level of 3-4%.

Crisis entails a lot of consequences - good and bad. The poor includes mass bankruptcy of firms and banks, a significant increase in unemployment, hunger, and in some cases the mortality rate of the population is noticeably increasing. In general, the standard of living of the majority of citizens of the country decreases. The volumes of gross national product are sharply falling. It begins chronic simple production capacity.

But on the other hand, bringing no little suffering to the population, the crises still have a positive recreation side, contribute to the development of fundamentally new industries and contribute to the disappearance of weak unprospective firms and enterprises from the economy. So, on the basis of this, it can be concluded that the crisis is just a stage in the development and improvement of the country's economy.

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Http: // RU. wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial and Economic_Crizis_2008-2010_DV_V_SIYSI

Http://www.conomic-crisis.ru/morovoi-finansoviy-krizis/mirovoi-finansoviy-krizis-evropa.html

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